Scoring in Germany

Ah, what the heck--have been reading all about the teams as of late, may as well give it a shot. Thought up top: with Adidas unveiling a new ball (the most perfectly spherical ever, they say), there should be more goals than ever--which means teams that rely on clogging defenses and set plays to score may be in trouble.

Group A
Everyone has Germany coming out first in this weak group; even though it's not a great team they do have the home field advantage. Second spot out is a lot more wide open, with Poland the leading contender and Ecuador and Costa Rica going for the upset. I'm picking Poland, despite their recent poor play--the Ticos have some injuries and Ecuador reportedly doesn't play well away from home.

B
England gets more hype than any other team except Brazil, due to the crazy British press--looks like Wayne Rooney has recovered from his broken foot, so put them down to come out first. Sweden, which hasn't lost to England since 1968, is probably going to see that streak end here; it may also get pushed a bit by Paraguay, but with a recent injury to one of their strikers Paraguay's overmatched. Trinidad & Tobago is just there for fun.

C
This is a hard group, it's this tournament's group of death. Argentina is one of the handful of could-win-it-all-if-Brazil-screws-up teams, but basically tends to choke at the World Cup. They'll win the group, though; and I think the Netherlands will be right behind them. However, Serbia and the Ivory Coast both think they've got a shot at that second slot; don't see it happening, but with a key injury here and there....

D
The experts think is an easy group, with everyone picking Portugal and Mexico. I agree about Portugal--they have a Brazilian coach who's going to be able to get the most out of their 'golden generation's' last go-around. But Mexico... their goaltender's dad just died so he's now back in Mexico, unclear whether he'll be back in time for their first game--against Iran. Which has a bunch of veteran players who all play in Germany; all that, coupled with Mexico's history of underachievement, has me picking Team Melli to take the second spot. Angola's just there to be there.

E
Ah, what may be the toughest group to pick. I keep going back and forth--most experts expect Italy and the Czech Republic to make it out, with the U.S. just missing. I don't know; the U.S. has the following going for it: a brilliant, strong-willed coach in Bruce Arena; an opening game against a beaten-up Czech team in Kaiserslautern, which has a big American military base and thus will have a home feel; and no real pressure from fan expections. So I think they tie the Czechs and their great goalkeeper Petr Cech, then beat Italy--which is preoccupied by a huge soccer scandal back home, has been hit by a late injury bug and seems to be going through a bit of an identity crisis. So I've got the U.S. and the Czechs coming out. The real question will be if the U.S. can win the group, which would allow it to avoid Brazil in the next round... I don't think they will, the Czechs can pile up more goals. Ghana not a bad team and could upset someone, but I don't see them making it out.

F
Brazil will of course win; then Japan, Croatia, and Australia will fight for the second spot. The opening game between Japan and Australia will be key; I'm picking Japan, which has had some very strong results against top teams the last few months and has a lot of Cup experience. But really, Croatia could easily sneak in there, it's a hard group to pick.

G
A totally mixed-up group, you've got France as a slight favorite, but South Korea and
Switzerland right behind, only Togo is out of the mix. France, in any other group, wouldn't make it out, they're in their usual state of disarray. I've got them winning, and then South Korea proving that their run four years ago wasn't a total fluke.

H
An easy one to pick--Spain and Ukraine are the favorites, Tunisia and Saudi Arabia have no chance. I'll say Ukraine beats the always-underachieving Spaniards out in first.

So, then the second round. I've got Germany vs. Sweden, which Germany should win. England vs. Poland, with England moving on. Argentina vs. Iran, Argentina wins. Portugal vs. Netherlands... hmm, a tough one. I'll go with a mild upset and pick Portugal, think the Dutch will be pretty banged up from their first round matches. Brazil vs. the U.S., Brazil of course. Czechs vs. Japan, the Czechs. France vs. Spain, I'm going with Spain in a mild upset. Ukraine vs. South Korea, Ukraine.

Quarters: Germany vs. Argentina, a classic match-up, in an upset I'm going with the South Americans over the home team. Czechs vs. Spain, I have the Czechs. England vs. Portugal, I'm going with the Brits. Brazil vs. Ukraine--I'll tell you right now, if Brazil is gonna get upset, it'll happen here; their goalie's a bit suspect, and Ukraine has a great striker. But I don't think they will, going with Brazil.

Semis: Argentina vs. Czech Republic, a tough one to pick; I'm going with the Argentinians. I think the Czechs will be fatigued by this point; whereas not only is Argentina younger, but most of them have been playing with each other--and their coach--from the juniors on up, it's an unusually tight team. As for Brazil vs. England, I'm sticking with the Brazilians.

Which sets up an all-South American final. Argentina actually beat Brazil 3-1 in Buenos Aires last year, but I'm pretty sure Brazil will win their third Cup in four tournaments.

AFP photo of Brazilian midfielder Ronaldinho Gaucho jumping over Jeremy Christie of New Zealand, 04 June 2006, during a friendly match by Antonio Scorza via FIFA.

Reuters photo of an Iranian fan cheering during a friendly with Costa Rica, March 1, 2006 by Morteza Nikoubazl.

Reuters photo of U.S. coach Bruce Arena during a press conference in Hamburg, Germany, June 2, 2006 by Carlos Barria.