Obama-McCain debate, after all

I can't remember a more highly-anticipated debate; like everything else this year, it just feels bigger, like a society-wide event (the way politics always should be). McCain's theatrics the last few days of course only pumps up the interest--if this was deliberate, he better destroy Obama, cause any kind of tie is going to go to the one who didn't try to pull out.

The non-traditional format--9 segments of 9 minutes each, with opening questions on each topic and then a free-form where the candidates can really debate each other--means there could be fireworks. I'd say the potential for a flash of temper or big gaffe is the highest in years; McCain doesn't like playing it safe in any case, and with his recent big polling deficit I think he's gonna roll the dice, again.

Not that Palin or the 'suspend campaign' gambit worked.

ABC's crew looks positively giddy; more Americans could be watching tonight than for any other scheduled event in U.S. history. 22 debates for Obama, 15 for McCain (none of which had him matched up against 1 other candidate).

Jim Lehrer gets us going; he's the perfect moderator, steady and sober. Man, I have butterflies; this is really quite exciting. Lehrer stands to welcome the candidates, the audience does too. Holy height differential, Batman.

Lehrer starts quoting Eisenhower; economic strength the foundation of military strength. Asks where do you stand on the financial recovery plan. Obama first, per coin flip. Looks at the camera; has 2 minutes here, starts out a bit like a stump speech, then gets more relaxed. Lays out his principles--oversight, taxpayers should get something back, nothing to CEO salaries, 4 is helping homeowners. Also have to recognize this is the verdict on 8 years of failed policies from Bush and McCain. Trickle down hasn't worked--middle class should be the measure.

McCain, wearing a horribly striped tie (first rule of TV: wear nothing stripey, it creates signal noise); mentions Senator Kennedy in the hospital. Been not feeling too great about a lot of things lately, but feeling better tonight. Speaks more deliberately than Obama, to Lehrer not the camera. Makes joke about having been around for a while, which falls flat. Man, he seems sedate; Obama was punchy, energetic; he totally seems feeble--has a cold or something.

Very morbid-seeming; no eye contact with the camera. So weird. Lehrer wants to go back to the question. Obama takes over, how did we get here--says he warned 2 years we were potentially going to have a problem, last year told the Secretary of the Treasury a problem was brewing. Why didn't we set up a 21st century regulatory framework.

McCain says he hopes he'll vote for the plan; I also warned about Mae/Mac, all that--a lot of us saw this train wreck coming. Reference to Eisenhower, wrote 2 letters before D-Day, congrats and resignation. We've lost accountability. Wants SEC head to resign.

Obama says we need more responsibility--but not just when there's a crisis. Years ideology has been what's good for Wall Street, not Main Street; 10 days ago John said the fundamentals of the economy are strong; Lehrer tells him to say it directly to McCain, trying to get them to engage a little. McCain goes off on how great the American worker is.

Lehrer is getting a bit energized; asks McCain the differences between him and Obama. He says spending is out of control, even under Republicans. Goes after earmarking and corruption.

Man, he looks grim; holds up a pen, says he's gonna veto spending bills. Hits Obama for earmarks. Obama says that's why he suspended all requests for his home state. Obama hits back, McCain wants $300 billion in tax cuts for wealthy corporations. Tax cut for 95% of working families.

McCain ignores Obama, goes back to earmarks again. Obama interrupts him, he's not raising taxes. Very forceful. Closes loopholes, pays for priorities as he goes. Let's go back to the point; $18 billion is important, but that's not how we're going to get the middle class back on track, your tax policy is aimed at people who are doing well, that's just the last 8 years.

Lehrer asks McCain to respond. He says he wants to cut the business tax to get jobs here. Goes on for a while; Obama says if you make less than $250,000 a year, you won't get an increase. The business tax problem is real, but there are so many loopholes that businesses pay one of the lowest tax rates in the world. Hits his health credit idea--he intends to tax health benefits, for the first time in history. An example of the notion that the market can always solve everything.

McCain is hammering on his fight against spending. Obama interrupts McCain, says it's not true, goes after him on oil companies. Obama's demeanor is pretty good, forceful and direct and calm.

3rd question, Lehrer asks what will you have to give up because of the outlays for the rescue plan. Obama says we can't do everything, but we have to have energy independence. Have to reform health care system. Have to compete in education. Have to rebuild our infrastructure.

McCain says we have to cut spending. Obama has the most liberal voting record. Eliminate ethanol subsidies. Cut cost plus contracts in defense spending. This is McCain's strong suit, he's coming across as consistent. Saved $6.8 billion by fighting Boeing contract.

Obama says John's right that we have to make some cuts, private insurers through Medicare shouldn't be getting subsidies. Mentions he set up Google for government, so taxpayers can see spending projects.

Lehrer asks again, how will this crisis affect your policies? McCain says spending freeze on everything; Obama says you're using a hatchett when you need a scalpel. $10 billion a month in Iraq--let's save some money there.

McCain says we're sending lots of money overseas in foreign aid; need offshore drilling and nuclear power. 45 new nuclear power plants; linked to climate change, along with Senator Clinton have done lots of work. Lehrer goes back to is the bailout going to affect your policies; Obama says yes, tough decisions ahead--but you've got to know what your priorities are.

McCain says don't hand the health care system over to the federal government. Let families make the decisions. They're letting each other speak; if I were Obama I'd slice into this.

Obama says you said you agree with Bush 90% of the time--you voted for almost all of his budgets, to stand here after 8 years and say you're going to lead, is hard to swallow. McCain says it's well-known I'm not Miss Congeniality.

Lehrer shifts to lessons of Iraq. McCain says you can't lose a conflict. We're winning in Iraq, this strategy has succeeded. Wow, it's like he's speaking off the top of his head here as he ticks off the possible impact if we had not 'won.'

Obama says first question is should we have gone to war to begin with. We've spent nearly a trillion in Iraq, lost more than 4,000 lives, and al-Qaida is stronger than any time since 2001. Looks into the camera, we have to use our military wisely, and we didn't in Iraq.

McCain says next president will have to decide how we'll leave. Obama recently said it exceeded our expectations. Obama says violence has been reduced; but that was a tactic to contain the damage of four years of mismanage. They war didn't start in 2007. McCain's trying to cut in, Obama is citing what he was on wrong on, ticks them off. Obama reframes it as judgment.

McCain says Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy. Talks about speaking to troops in Iraq, says they said let us win, we don't want our kids coming back here. Obama refuses to acknowledge we are winning in Iraq. McCain says Obama voted to cut off votes for the troops.

Obama clarifies the vote was on whether there should be a timetable or not. Says McCain said Afghanistan not a threat, in rush to go to Iraq. Not enough troops in Afghanistan.

The best Obama can hope for is to talk about Afghanistan; and that's where Lehrer moves it. Says again, it was a strategic mistake to go to Iraq not Afghanistan. Hits Pakistan too.

McCain says he won't repeat the mistake that he regrets, abandoning the people after we helped them drive Russians out. That's a good point. Says he's not prepared to cut off aid to Pakistan, so I'm not prepared to threaten Pakistan, or strike them--you don't say that out loud. New strategy in Afghanistan is a surge, just like in Iraq.

McCain's really improved as the debate has gone on, his somberness works here where it didn't on the economy. His body language and tone conveys credibility. Obama says he didn't talk about attacking Pakistan--he says we'll attack al-Qaida with or without Pakistan. Obama says you have to be prudent about what you say--coming from you and your crazy remarks on North Korea and Iran, that's not credible.

Hmm, interesting, Obama now pivots, we shouldn't have propped up a dictator in Pakistan like you supported. McCain says he doesn't think Obama understands the situation in Pakistan when Musharraf came to power.

McCain says I voted against sending Marines to Lebanon. Gulf War, I supported. Bosnia, supported going in too. Odd, these are contradictory points--what's he saying, he supports intervention, or not? Getting a bit meandering. I have a record of being involved in these high level decision-making, about sending our troops into harm's way.

Talks about wearing bracelet of soldier killed in combat, his stock story. McCain says he knows what it's like when an army is defeated. Lehrer cuts him off, he keeps going on. Obama jumps in. I have a bracelet too--make sure another mother's not going through what I'm going through. The question is for the next president are we making good judgments precisely because sending our military into battle is such a big deal--the original point is we took our eye off Afghanistan.

Nobody's talking about defeat in Iraq, but we are having big problems in Afghanistan because of that decision--it's not true you've been concerned about Afghanistan, you said we could muddle through.

Wow, Obama is taking him to the woodshed on this. McCain's remark is he's never gone to Afghanistan. I've been there, I know what our needs are.

New question to McCain, what about the threat from Iran. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, it's a game-changer, so we can't let Iran go there. Wants to form a league of democracies; Russians are preventing action in the UN. Impose painful sanctions on Iran--they have a lousy government, so bad economy despite oil revenues.

The tone of this section has been different; words really matter here. McCain links Iran to Iraq insurgency; hits Obama on revolutionary guard terror amendment. Obama says let's correct something, the guard is a terrorism organization, what McCain's talking about is broadening the mandate in Iraq to include Iran. That war has helped Iran. Policy over the last 8 years has not worked.

Obama actually uses the word gamechanger; says McCain is right, we can't tolerate a nuclear Iran. Tougher sanctions--but we can't do that without the Russians and the Chinese, they're not democracies but trade with Iran. Major difference, we need to talk to them--by not talking to people we're punishing them is a failed strategy.

McCain says Obama would talk to everyone without precondition, has trouble with Ahmadinejad's name, says we shouldn't just talk to him. McCain says Reagan wouldn't talk until the Russians reformed, I'll sit with anyone but there has to be preconditions.

Obama says Ahmadinejad's not the most powerful person in Iran, so we may not talk to him; I reserve the right to talk to anyone. One of his advisers, Kissinger, said we should meet with Iran without preconditions. It doesn't mean you invite them over for tea. Of course we have to do preparations; it may not work. Raises North Korea as what happens when you don't engage a country; when Bush reversed course, we made some progress at least. Obama says McCain wouldn't even meet with Spain's prime minister. Wow, he really went after him.

McCain says what Obama doesn't understand is you legitimize comments when you sit down across the table from someone. McCain says he's known Kissinger for 35 years, Obama's wrong on this.

Next question, Russia to Obama. He's held his own so far, it's all back and forth; as long as he's on equal footing he's won. Goes through his talking points on Russia. We can't return to a Cold War posture on Russia, we have a lot in common, brings up his loose nukes actions. His answer is okay, you'd have thought it'd be better.

McCain says Obama again doesn't understand what happened with Russia vs. Georgia. I hope Obama hits him on this trope. McCain says no Cold War, but Putin's eyes are all K-G-B. Odd lines from him every so often. Keeps saying he's been to all these places. Watch Ukraine, McCain lectures, this whole thing has a long to do there.

Obama says actually we mostly agree here, but I immediately said it was illegal for Russia to go into Georgia. We have to have foresight and anticipate some of these problems, in April I said Russian peacekeepers shouldn't have been in Georgia. Obama's very good at controlling time, says in advance 2 points, which them means McCain listens to both. 2nd issue here is energy policy.

We can't drill our way out of the problem. So much of this is about demeanor and credibility, Obama oozes confidence. Hits McCain on his energy record. McCain hits Obama on nuclear, then says drilling is a bridge, at least temporarily. Obama's gonna jump in here, McCain keeps talking about Nunn-Lugar on nuclear waste. Obama hits McCain, they're talking over each other.

Last question: liklihood of another 9/11 attack on the U.S. McCain says we're safer now, but a long way from safe. I've worked across the aisle on first responder. Obama's gonna hit him on that; McCain says we'll never torture again. We're safer today than we were on 9/11, but still have a way to go. Ha, says Homeland Security employees are doing a great job.

Obama says safer in some ways. Transit, ports, chemical sites, biggest threat is nuclear proliferation. Doesn't make sense to spend billions on missile defense, but not enough attention to suitcase nukes. We also need to focus on al-Qaida, Iraq focus isn't enough. One last point: the way we are perceived in the world is going to make a difference in cooperation and rooting out terrorists. I'm going to restore our standing in the world, we shouldn't be less respected; gives McCain credit on the torture issue. McCain says Obama doesn't get that if we fail in Iraq, it encourages al Qaida, they'd have a base there.

Obama says Bush and McCain have just been focused on Iraq. In the meantime, al-Qaida is stronger. Challenges from China. Then pivots, ties our deteriorating economy to national security, spends the last part of his time talking about domestic policies. Nobody's talking about losing this war, next president has to look at the big picture.

McCain says I've been involved in everything for 20 years. I don't think Obama has the knowledge or experience, has made the wrong choices; have seen this stubborness before in this administration, refuses to say he was wrong about the surge, we need more flexibility in a president.

Wow, that's kind of a crazy point. Goes on to talk about how he'll take care of the veterans, I love them, they know that I'll take care of them. Reform, prosperity and peace; I don't need any on-the-job training.

Obama says let me make a closing point--will be hard to follow up that soundbite-friendly compilation from McCain. My dad came to Kenya, that's where I got my name; in the 60s he wanted to come here. Our standing in the world isn't what it used to be; we need to send a message to the world.

I don't think his closing is good, it sounds too liberal and wooly-minded. McCain finishes with when he came back from prison, he worked on POW-MIA issues, I know how to heal the wounds of war, I know how to deal with adversaries, and our friends.

And that's it; Obama says good job to McCain, caught on microphone. Michelle comes up on stage, then Cindy. Whoah, wives shake hands.

George Stephanopolous says both candidates played on each others' turf; McCain on economy, Obama on foreign affairs did well. Charlie Gibson said Obama strong on judgment, McCain hammered Obama on experience. Diane Sawyer says Obama campaign wanted to show fight and passion, and he did.

On NBC, they also say both did well, expressing themselves. Tom Brokaw says McCain really went after Obama, we're all looking at the same polls; surprised Obama didn't work harder at pinning McCain to Bush.

CBS has voters and their dials; during Iraq war talk, Obama scores with his list of things McCain was wrong about on the war. Few think McCain won, more think Obama won.

I think McCain did well tonight; he really owned the last few minutes, those soundbite-ready comments are going to be what a lot of people hear the next few days.

Throughout, he was clearly comfortable and familiar with all of these issues, and although I disagree with his philosphy, he at least has a well-thought out world view to apply consistently to foreign policy. McCain has also done well to avoid being tagged as Bush III, totally seemed his own man tonight except during the economic section.

Obama also did well, didn't get hammered on surge, and simply went toe-to-toe with McCain. His demeanor and tone were presidential. I don't think he 'won', but he didn't lose either, which given the polls and what people want him in office for, is a win.

Don't think the polls move much out of this; people will pretty much hear what they want to. McCain's lost one of his last best chances to move the numbers; he's going to have to pull another maverick moment.