Taking the plunge

So, what's going to happen in the midterm elections on Tuesday? It seems pretty certain the Democrats will take the House, and will wind up with a majority of governerships (which is a pretty key element in presidential elections).

But what about the Senate?

Both parties have some good news if you look at general trends. On the one hand, The Hotline points out that four major polls out this past weekend show generic ballots, where voters have a choice between voting Democratic or Republican, all show statistically significant swings toward the Democrats.

On the other, Hotline also details some early successes from the GOP's astonishing GOTV operations. As Hotline notes, "Never in recent electoral history have the structural assets claimed by one party -- the Republicans -- so loudly clashed with the prevailing winds, which favor the Democrats."

More specifically, Congressional Quarterly's Balance of Power Scorecard shows of the 33 Senate seats being contested this year, Democrats are safe in 10, favored in 4, and have 7 leaning towards them. Republicans, with fewer sitting Senators to defend, are safe in 7, favored in 1, and have none leaning towards them.

Of the remaining 4, labeled no clear favorite, only 1 is a current Democratic seat, that of scandal-tinged Bob Menendez in New Jersey, who's in a heck of a fight against Tom Kean Jr., son of the beloved former NJ governor and co-chair of the 9/11 Commission. Menendez has frittered away much of his double-digit lead, and in the last week polls have shown the race as everywhere from tied to Menendez up only slightly. I think Menendez will retain this seat--he's never really trailed in the race, and I think voters in the Democratic will ultimately hold their noses and vote for him.

In Tennessee, Rep. Harold Ford has come from waaaay behind to mount a serious challenge to Republican Bob Corker for an open seat the GOP thought they'd easily retain. Most polls, however, have the race going from a dead heat to a 5 to 10 point Corker lead in the last couple of weeks; so even though Ford has run what a lot of people are calling the best campaign this election season, I think he'll fall short.

Which means in order to get to 51 (50/50 lets Dick Cheney break the tie) the Democrats have to win both Missouri and Virginia.

Like two years ago, Missouri has been closely-fought all year; neither Sen. Jim Talen nor Claire McCaskill have been able to get much separation in a state that seems to be divided right down the middle. Democrats are banking their hopes in part on a ballot proposition on stem cell research that should get their voters out.

I'm thinking that, plus the fact the GOP's GOTV advantage won't matter as much in a state that's already been bombarded by both sides for months with tons of commercials and voter drives, and the historic note that Talent won the seat by just 1 point last time around after being up by around 5 points coming in, will give McCaskill the win.

So, assuming the venerable Sen. Lincoln Chafee indeed loses in Rhode Island despite a last-second charge, and the likeable Michael S. Steele loses in Maryland (those are two Republicans I'd support if their victories didn't also guarantee the GOP taking the Senate), in my scenario control of the Senate will come down to Virginia.

Unthinkable for Republicans just a few months ago, when Sen. George Allen was crusing to reelection over former Navy secretary James Webb. Then came maccaca and Jewish-gate, showing Allen's true colors in the opinion of many and utterly obliterating his previous presidential aspirations.

Webb has actually been slightly ahead in recents polls; fittingly for what's been a bizarre race, Virginia is a weird state, with the convervative south balanced by its liberal DC-suburbs and all sorts of odd national tensions played out as a result.

I think Webb will win this race, with liberals more energized to go to the polls than conservatives. Which means I'm predicting the Democrats take the Senate; conventional wisdom sees them picking up 4 or 5 seats, but not 6. But I think the last-minute undecideds will break Democrat... oddly enough, Saddam Hussein being back in the news may hurt the Republicans, who want the news to be about anything but Iraq.

As for the House, CQ has steadily projected more and more seats for the Democrats, and currently stands at 213 (you need 218 for a House majority), with the Republicans at 199. They have 23 seats as toss-ups.

Nearly as important, 20 seats lean GOP, while 14 lean toward the Democrats. Which means the GOP needs to win pretty much every seat they're slightly ahead in, and hope to get a substantial majority of the toss-ups.

I don't think that'll happen; the House is the most accurate barometer of the country's mood, since every seat is contested every 2 years and each Congressperson represents on average just 647,000 people.

I think Nancy Pelosi will not only be the new Speaker of the House (which makes me a bit quesy, although significantly less so than with Dennis Hastert), she'll have a significant majority. I'm guessing the Democrats will wind up with 240 seats.

In foreseeing a last-minute surge towards the Democrats on top of what they've already managed to do, I'm relying in part on the accuracy of what Bill Clinton has been telling audiences, as reported by the AP:

Clinton said that many Republicans, as well as independents, are fed up with the GOP and may be ready to switch if they are encouraged by Democratic activists.

"Don't even give up on Republicans who say they've never voted for a Democrat before," Clinton said.

"This is scary for some of these folks. It's like when you were a kid _ the first time you ever jumped off a diving board. You have to go grab them by the hand ... and jump off that diving board to victory," he said.

I think that's pretty accurate--it's not just these Republicans (who are really Reagan Democrats) are wary of voting for Kerry's party--it's also they're nervous about in some ways deserting a sitting president during wartime.

I think in the privacy of the voting booth, they'll quietly pull the lever for the Democrats. The national mood is that of enough is enough; a lot of these voters aren't gonna tell that to a pollster, but they feel it in their bones. Change is needed, messages need to be sent.

Of course, it's a whole 'nother question whether Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are who the Democrats want as their public face going into 2008. I personally dislike both of them; I'd much prefer Howard Dean, Al Gore and of course Barack Obama set the agenda for the non-Republicans.

So if the GOP somehow holds on to both chambers, I wouldn't necessarily be crushed. Although, in retrospect, I should've been when my 2004 prediction failed to come true; who knew how destructive Bush et al could be in just two years.

Photo of Pelosi and Reid by Brendan Smialowsky for The New York Times.