Obama under the arch

So somewhere between 15,000 to 25,000 New Yorkers crammed into Washington Square park yesterday to hear Barack Obabama, an especially notable figure given that NYC is supposed to be Hillary territory. As the Times hints at, the rally may mark a shift in the campaign:

Senator Barack Obama implored thousands of admirers who gathered last night in New York City to set aside their distrust in politics and believe in the long-term possibility of his presidential candidacy even though, he conceded, “there are easier choices to make in this election.”

In a giant rally in the backyard of Senator Hillary Rodham, Mr. Obama, of Illinois, drew distinctions between himself and his leading rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, insisting that only a fresh candidate could truly change Washington. Twice, he singled out Mrs. Clinton. ...

Mr. Obama, bathed in bright flood lights as he stood on a stage before a crowd stretching across Washington Square Park, struck a sharper tone than he has through much of his campaign, particularly when he stands alongside his Democratic rivals. The arguments he made, before an audience of supporters, were not articulated during a debate one night earlier.

“There were folks on the stage that said Social Security is just fine, we don’t have to do anything about it,” Mr. Obama said last night. “There are those who will tell you that getting out of Iraq will be painless, we’ll do it in a snap, not acknowledging that there are no good options in Iraq. There are folks who will shift positions and policies on all kinds of things depending on which way the wind is blowing. That’s not the kind of politics that will deliver on the change we are looking for.”

The racially diverse crowd included Obama devotees who said they came specifically to increase attendance; Greenwich Village residents who had heard the commotion and followed it with dogs and yoga mats in tow; and nostalgists who beamed at the sight of thousands of mostly young people filling the park for a liberal, antiwar cause.

Some telling quotes, via Gothamist:

An NYU freshman told the Washington Square News, "Barack Obama is the most gangster politician to ever come to Washington" and that "Hell yeah!" he would vote for him, while a 72-year-old registered Republican told the Columbia Spectator that she would be voting Democrat no matter what, "We’re in a very, very serious time now with our safety and our freedoms."

Talk is cheap, of course, and Obama's challenge is going to be to get these young voters who love nothing better than spouting off to actually drag themselves to the polls come primary or caucus day. As Real Clear Politics puts it,

While polls have Obama running behind [in Iowa], [Campaign manager David] Plouffe argues that the campaign will benefit from a "hidden vote," meaning youth and others who don't typically vote in primaries. Those voters, pollsters know, don't actually vote in most primaries, so the pollsters set up "screens" to weed them out of samples. Plouffe may be right, Obama may have a great deal more support than he shows in public polls. But there's a reason pollsters say youth and others don't vote in primaries: They don't, typically. For any campaign to rely on a population like that to win a primary can be very dangerous.

Clinton's definitely been on a roll as of late--she's running a tight, disciplined campaign, and has been benefiting from the growing sense that she cannot be sense, even if Obama continues to outraise her (which may not happen in the third quarter).

But I still think Obama has a real shot at winning the nomination--he's got the kind of charisma that I think will, in the end, win over voters in the retail politics environment of Iowa and New Hampshire.

You like him when you're exposed to him; he's just got to convince enough voters to vote their hearts. The Times article concludes with the challenge and the opportunity:

Sophie Ragir, 18, a Columbia freshman, said, “It’s a social thing. Everyone on my floor was, like, are you going to the Obama thing?”

Leyla Biltsted, 60, who is retired and lives in Manhattan, said, “I’ve never heard such a wonderful visionary speech as he did at the Democratic convention. That brought me hope.” She added: “Now, I’m waiting to see what’s behind the vision, how he’s going to implement it, who he’s going to surround himself with. We don’t vote for a little while yet; I’m on a fishing trip.”

Obama photo from Obama campaign's Flickr photostream.