Caucusing with Iowa

C-SPAN is broadcasting the caucus from Theodore Roosevelt High School in Des Moines. It's a huge, overflow crowd--which bodes well for Obama statewide if it's at all typical of the other 1,781 locations.

I wonder how long until this giant 21st century country no longer starts the process of picking a leader via this weird, wonderful method.

7:00 p.m. CST: It opens with the Obama precinct captain nominating the Clinton precinct captain to be the night's chair; she's voted in by a clear majority voice vote, at which point she turns around and nominates him to be tonight's secretary.

7:10 p.m. CST: They huddle, decide where each candidate's supporters should gather, and then the chair announces 375 people are in the crowd, which may be a record. She tells people where to go for each preference group.

7:15 p.m. CST: And the crowd disperses into each corner, gathering around signs for each candidate. The camera goes around, the OEC clumps are big, but even candidates like Richardson seem to have countable support--in this case they do the math and say groups have to have at least 56 members to be viable.

ABC's blog is reporting a giant crowd at another Des Moines high school; the NYTimes blog is watching C-SPAN; the Washington Post's blog doesn't seem to be covering the caucuses in real time.

7:20 p.m. CST: C-SPAN shows a Richardson supporter trying to peel someone away from the Dodd group. There's cheering in the room from one corner.

7:25 p.m. CST: Via Tribune's blog, the link for Iowa's Democratic Party results, and Republican Party results.

Obama's leading, then Edwards, then Clinton so far at this precinct, pre-nonviability merge. Dodd's group is already disintegrating. It's great hearing normal people talk and argue publicly, with something real at stake.

7:30 p.m. CST: ABC's blog is saying it's looking like Obama's night, based on "the chaos at overrun caucus sites."

Clinton supporters are giving out hugs as they get new supporters; although technically, they just announce you're not suppose to move for another few minutes.

But Obama's clearly the largest group in this room, according to a Biden supporter who's wondering if he should change.

It's odd--this could be astonishing history in the making if Obama wins, like watching over the shoulder as precinct captains in Chicago committed vote fraud for Kennedy.

There seems to be a lot of confusion about when groups aren't viable; the Richardson people seem to be pretty agressive in this room about peeling off other people's supporters, theoretically it's not even 30 minutes yet.

7:37 p.m. CST: Chair says you need 57 to be viable, apparently nobody except the big 3 is viable--although some Richardson folks seem to think they're viable. Now the horse trading starts, they have 15 minutes.

Richardson is desperately doing another count; funny that so much depends on group dynamics. They're up to 47, need 10 more.... Now's the decision point--disband, or keep trying. People are just standing around; where's his precinct captain?

The small Biden group is trying to decide where to go, harangued by Edwards people. One voter says he'd have switched to Edwards, but nobody from the campaign ever got back to him on a question he had so now he's supporting Obama; Edwards' supporter just repeats dogma and says Edwards is the most viable--the voter responds look at tonight, pointing at the huge Obama crowd.

I think people are going to be shocked by Obama's victory margin; clearly something pretty unprecedented is happening.

From ABC's blog: "Obama folks are saying turnout they're expecting is 207,000. Holy schmoly. If that happens, Obama will win in a romp."

From NYTimes' blog: "All indications are that turnout is huge tonight. Our colleagues out in the caucuses are reporting bigger turnouts than last year. A message from the Edison/Mitofsky pollsters, who are conducting entrance polls, says that on the Democratic side, they have four vote reporters who are not being let into the caucuses to observe the initial preference, with the fire marshal in some cases telling them that the caucus room are too crowded."

We're watching conventional wisdom form in front of our eyes--by tomorrow morning, even politically apathetic people will know about the Obama surge.

7:45 p.m. CST: Everyone in Richardson is disbanding, and they're pretty much all going over to Obama.

The 'entrance polls' have it Obama, Clinton, Edwards--I could see that happening, if all the change people get caught up in the Barack wave.

7:50 p.m. CST: It seems the Edwards crowd is having problems counting their people... hmmm, if you can't get this right....

It's really amazing that this is how the caucuses are done. C-SPAN finally turns their cameras to the Obama group, it's huge. Not sure how they're going to count; apparently they're doing another count. It's like half the room is Obama... their new system is everyone's hand is up, when it gets to you you say whatever number vote you are, then point to the next....

7:58 p.m. CST: Final numbers from this precinct: 186 Obama, 116 Edwards, 74 Clinton. Wow. Now, let's see how long until the Times blog reports, they're watching the same precinct.

8:00 p.m. CST: Obama gets 3 delegates outof this precinct, Edwards 2, Clinton 1.

And that's pretty much it--exactly 1 hour long. Great job, Iowans! As we watch the Edwards group decide on their delegates--the first non-white person sighting of the night!

As I've written before, if Obama can win a state that's 91.5% white, he's in amazing shape.

C-SPAN tells us CNN and ABC News are projecting Huckabee to win on the GOP side, Romney in second. Weirdly, no word of this on their blog....

Those efficient Republicans--none of this realigning for them, everyone just shows up, casts a vote, and goes home.

Edwards still hasn't found a second delegate; ouch.

8:07 CST: CNN says on their blog Richardson's delegates are indeed moving, en masse, to Obama--which confirms leaks all day that there was an agreement between the two groups to that effect.

From the NYTimes blog: "Not even a third of the precincts are reporting yet on the Democratic side. But here’s some bad news for Mrs. Clinton. Polk County, which encompasses Des Moines, should be one of her strongest counties. But so far, the race looks neck and neck: Mr. Obama is ahead there, with 195 delegates, compared with 191 for Mr. Edwards and 188 for Mrs. Clinton."

ABC's blog hasn't updated for more than 15 minutes, wonder what's going on over there.

Really, if I ran a news organization, I'd just hire 1,781 interns to stand in each precinct and input the vote totals as they're announced to the crowd--they'd beat the official tally, which I'm sure doesn't get sent in immediately.

The Bulls, btw, are on top of Portland nearing halftime.

8:12 CST: Romney's conceded on FOX News, says the NYTimes blog.

Wow, what a nightmare scenario for the GOP--the winner in Iowa is the candidate with the least money and organization, but lots of passionate supporters. They're in danger of becoming Democrats!

8:16 CST: C-SPAN is still at the high school, they're now doing party business-type things. The room's emptied out, but there are still a surprisingly large number of people hanging around and even participating.

T-shirt of the night: I Caucus For Darfur.