Coming home

I still believe what I wrote in August, that Barack Obama's going to win the Iowa Democratic caucus Thursday. And think the margin will be surprisingly large.

Especially given that Obama's supporters tend to be younger, and passionate--the anachronistic but thrilling caucuses are really about neighbors arguing with neighbors and trying to come to a consensus.

I think group dynamics will make it easier for a roomful of people to wind up taking a chance and going with hope, than playing it safe--especially with a candidate as charismatic and likeable as Obama.

That, plus the Des Moines Register's poll (the only whose track record gives it any credibilty), plus Obama's parallels with Kerry's surge last year, plus the prospect of record turnout, plus the influx of independents, plus a relatively mild weather forecast, plus Kucinich/Richardson/Biden telling or likely to tell their supporters to make Obama their 2nd choice all make me think the Senator-from-next-door will turn the Democratic race upside down.

Just read what the Register's respected political columnist David Yepsen has to say:

There is much knitting of the brow in the political community that's camped out in Iowa just now. And it's not all due to New Year's Day hangovers.

The latest Iowa Poll published by this newspaper shows Barack Obama with a handsome 7-point lead over Hillary Clinton among likely Democratic caucusgoers. However, other polls show Clinton only a point or two ahead.

The difference is due, in part, to the fact that 40 percent of the likely Democratic caucusgoers in the Iowa Poll say they are independent voters. Five percent say they're Republicans.


That's just too many independents and Republicans for some to visualize at a Democratic caucus. It's causing much harrumphing among the Democratic camps deflated by the numbers.

And who knows. Maybe they are correct. Maybe people are telling pollsters the acceptable thing, that, "Oh, yes, I'll be there," when, in fact, they'll be parked in front of the tube, watching football.

But maybe it isn't wrong. Maybe we're looking at a big Obama turnout in Iowa. Maybe we're looking at the beginning of an Obama sweep to the nomination and the presidency.

From the very beginning, Obamamania has generated huge crowds across the state. They are often full of faces not seen at political rallies.

For example, on Monday night at a New Year's Eve party in Ames, hundreds packed the Great Hall at Iowa State University and waited for more than an hour to hear Obama deliver his well-polished stump speech.

In that speech he does something interesting. He always asks for a show of hands of those who've never been to a caucus. (More than half the hands go up.) He always asks for a show of hands of those who are undecided. (Maybe a third of the hands are in the air.)

Now, I assume here that someone who would devote their New Year's Eve to attending a political speech might just be a little predisposed to go out a few nights later to caucus for the candidate who delivered it. Just a guess.

An Iowa win for Obama makes a victory in suddenly-tight New Hampshire likely, especially if Edwards finishes third in Iowa and his anti-Hillary votes jump his ship (the guy's lived in Iowa for 4 years, if he can't win there...) and flow to Obama.

Obama's already ahead in the South Carolina polls, and I don't think Clinton can survive losing the first three contests--what's her excuse going to be, people don't know me well enough?

Poor Hillary; it was going to take a perfect storm to deny her the Democratic nod-- looks like one's brewing.

Reuters photo of Obama by Jim Young