Looking back on Barack

You wonder what Abraham Lincoln would've made of Barack Obama and the 2008 presidential race.... Here, at least, is what I made of it:

June 18, 2006: Seed Corn

How great is Obama? I like him a lot--but you know, shouldn't every politician be like him? Inspiring, straight-forward, optimistic and connected to the people. It doesn't seem too much to ask, but I guess it is.

As for Obama in '08--sure, if the Democrats want to commit suicide. He's not ready for the job, especially in this day and age. It'd be a miracle if he was.

I'm sure Republicans are praying that a fit of insanity among Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire will propel Obama to the nomination. They can then run McCain--GOP primary voters would rather him than a black man win!--and legitimately play the experience/real adult card, making Obama look foolish and hampering his chances for when he should really run, in 2012.

Besides which, many voters disgusted with Bush and looking for anyone but will draw the line at voting for black man for president. The same prejudice makes me worry that literally the only person who can keep the Democrats out of the White House in 2008 is Hillary. Gore, Kerry, heck, even bring back Jimmy Carter.

So don't do it, Barack, not yet. The Democratic party isn't so bereft it needs to eat its children, neither is it so strong it can make history.

Well, in my defense, I did recognize Obama's extraordinary qualities; and that McCain would be the GOP nominee against Obama. This was before the Democrats won back the House in 2006, it just goes to show how quickly things change in politics.

January 17, 2007: Running for history

It's interesting because four years ago at this time, Democrats were watching pretty much the same race between Howard Dean and John Kerry.

Yet Dean wound up with both the energy and the money, before Kerry outwitted him in Iowa and fed his self-destruction. Obama's a much more disciplined candidate than Dean; Clinton's got more star power than Kerry.

To the extent any argument you can make about Obama was also made about Dean--inexperience being the chief one--the fact that Dean overcame and indeed took advantage of all the rhetoric to become the overwhelming Democratic front-runner at one point bodes well for Obama.

That, plus the fact that all of Obama's forthcoming screw-ups will only feed into his image as an ordinary, likeable guy. Obama's about as close to bullet-proof as any candidate has been in recent years; well, except of course for the name-thing and the race-thing.

Just one sign of his popularity is his announcement of his candidacy, via his website, became--in just one day--one of the most popular items this month on Digg.

Hillary's chief danger is she is going to seem like old news compare to Obama; that everything she does or says, no matter its merits, can be tuned out by an electorate that may have hit historically high levels of cynicism when it comes to attitudes toward politicians.

Her top assets are she has a ton of money, and knows everybody there is to know. And a nearly-fanatically loyal and top-notch staff that's been helping her lay the groundwork for this run for the past decade.

Throw in the mantle of history both carry, and it's shaping up to be one heck of a race. With their contrasting styles, it may even turn out to be the most riveting thing on television this fall.

I don't see how this can be good for Republicans in any way--the country's gonna be riveted by all Democrats, all the time, for the next year-and-a-half. Whomever winds up being the nominee is going to have had a lot more free media on which to spread their message than anyone on the Republican side.

Then again, given the GOP's message is essentially whatever Bush says it is at this point, maybe it's not such a bad idea for them to lay low until they can sort things out.

Well, this turned out to be the 2008 primary race in a nutshell, laid out at the outset of 2007. Not bad!

March 24, 2007: From Illinois to Hawai'i

There's a fascinating Times look at Barack Obama's time growing up in Hawai'i, A Search for Self in Obama’s Hawaii Childhood, that gives you a glimpse into why he's so at ease with America circa 2007, in contrast with all the white male Americas running around as if it's 1957.

Unlike those carefully-constructed empty suits, Obama is an absolutely natural politician, totally relaxed in front of people and able to communicate his ideas and principles in a straightforward, understandable style. He has the gift of distilling the complex down to its essentials without patronizing his audience or himself.

Yet for all his ease with his fellow Americans, he's a uniquely complicated person--the more I find out, the more amazed I am at all the interesting little items in his background. His path has been harder and more meandering than I expected, based on his golden boy public image that's quickly taken on aspects of the mythic.

In a very specific way he reminds me of Lincoln--the optimism about America, intertwined with a dead seriousness about his personal mission; that same quick wit and easy sense of humor, overlaying both a prodigious intellect and a deeper, darker strain that comes from atypical levels of thought and personal experiences.

And, like Lincoln, shaped by the frontier, Obama, shaped by Hawai'i, knows America needs everyone.

This was a good post that, I think, gets at the core of Obama's appeal for a 21st century America.

April 2, 2007: Two shining moments

In politics, like everything else, both the things that grab the headlines and a flood of information can sometimes blind you to the telling details.

The big story Sunday was Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign announcing they had raised more than $26 million in the first three months of 2007, shattering the previous record (which was around $8 million).

Buried in the story, however, was a key line--Clinton wasn't revealing how much of that money had been raised for her primary fight, and how much for the general election.

It's obviously an important distinction; mixing the two numbers is like telling someone your salary's $1 million... based on lumping together the next 10 years.

How about Barack Obama? He hasn't officially reported yet, but his campaign is leaking that he raised $20 million. ...

I'd say Hillary is more than worried. Remember, the candidate who raises the most early doesn't always win--just ask Howard Dean about that.

However... Hillary had all the advantages coming in, and she's not someone who's got a lot of new people to tap into at this point. She's had years to cultivate donors; has 100% name recognition; has the support of tons of operatives and party officials; represents New York, where a giant percentage of the top donors live; has a big network in California, the other fundraising hub; and has hubby Bill's magic Rolodex to draw from.

They pulled out all the stops; and it didn't work. ...

Looks like the Final Four's set for the presidential race; only question is whether Hillary and Rudy deserve their current #1 seeds.

Not bad; not too many other people at this point arguing Obama might be the actual front-runner for the Democratic nomination.


August 3, 2007: When not winning is losing

In sports there's the concept of a team being behind in the game, but actually being ahead.

Like let's say in football, you turn the ball over 4 times deep in your own territory in the first half, but the other team is only up 10-0 on the scoreboard.

Really, you should be losing like 21-0, so the halftime speech from the coach goes something like they've taken their best shot at us and this is all they can do--this game is ours to win.

You'd be surprised at how often the team that's 'down' winds up winning the game in situations like that; you've got to make the most of your chances in sports, and when you don't the other team usually does.

The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll from Iowa has Barack Obama at 27%, Hillary Clinton at 26%, and Johh Edwards at 26%.

I'm shocked. Edwards has practically lived in Iowa the last four years; the state gave him a surprisingly strong second place finish the last time out, and his entire strategy this time around is built around winning Iowa so he's devoted the bulk of his resources to the state.

Clinton's also been running for president for the past four years, has poured money and staff into Iowa, is married to someone who's enormously popular in the state, and has picked up the endorsements of most of Iowa's political heavyweights.

And yet they're both not only not up on Obama, but are actually trailing a man whose only advantage in Iowa is his ads in the Illionois Senate race leaked over the border.

I mean, if four years of concentrated work by Edwards and Clinton in a state that's 94% white can't even give them a lead over someone who's basically just shown up, my gosh, where are they gonna beat him once voters get to know him? ...

Nevertheless, this poll result from a state with voters who are paying the most attention in the nation, along with Obama's ability to outraise Hillary, along with the size of crowds he's drawing everywhere, along with the people he's managed to get to run his campaign, are all pretty telling that this game is gonna play out differently.

My first concrete prediction that Obama would beat Hillary, 5 months before the Iowa caucuses.

August 3, 2007: Why Republicans will choose a Hispanic for VP

Come next September in Minneapolis, the Republicans should nominate a Hispanic candidate for vice president.

A Hispanic nominee totally changes the dynamic of the election. It'd give the GOP a shot at capturing the fastest-growing bloc of voters, lets voters make history by voting Republican, blows up the electoral map, and allows the traditional black/Latino fault line to tear Democrats apart from within.

A Hispanic is the only person who can fulfill the VP nominee's traditional job of attack dog against the other party's presidential candidate without coming across as racist (if it's Barack Obama) or a bully (if it's Hillary Clinton).

A Hispanic gives minorities a credible reason to not vote Democratic without feeling like traitors or bigots or sexists.

A Hispanic is the only way the Republicans can dodge the growing feeling that they're yesterday's party, top-heavy with tired white males.

A Hispanic ties 15% of the population to the Republicans, via an ethnic pride/emotional/historic appeal that cannot be underestimated.

A Hispanic demolishes the electoral map--it locks up Texas for the GOP, solidifies their hold on Florida, shores up their razor-thin margins in Arizona and New Mexico, forces Democrats to put more resources into the expensive New York and Illinois media markets, and--in combination with Schwarzenegger--actually puts California into play.

A Hispanic in the second spot gives cover for the Republicans to play their favorite wedge issue, immigration, following the George Bush/Karl Rove playbook.

There are only two reasons the GOP wouldn't nominate a Hispanic: The prejudices of their own core voters, and the lack of a credible Hispanic Republican candidate (Mel Martinez is the only one in the ballpark).

I guess it's apt that the only thing preventing the Republicans from seizing control of the 2008 race could be themselves.

They should've listened to me; Obama would still have won, but the GOP would've at least made it a much better debate about the future of this country.

January 2, 2008: Coming home

I still believe what I wrote in August, that Barack Obama's going to win the Iowa Democratic caucus Thursday. And think the margin will be surprisingly large.

Especially given that Obama's supporters tend to be younger, and passionate--the anachronistic but thrilling caucuses are really about neighbors arguing with neighbors and trying to come to a consensus.

I think group dynamics will make it easier for a roomful of people to wind up taking a chance and going with hope, than playing it safe--especially with a candidate as charismatic and likeable as Obama.

That, plus the Des Moines Register's poll (the only whose track record gives it any credibilty), plus Obama's parallels with Kerry's surge last year, plus the prospect of record turnout, plus the influx of independents, plus a relatively mild weather forecast, plus Kucinich/Richardson/Biden telling or likely to tell their supporters to make Obama their 2nd choice all make me think the Senator-from-next-door will turn the Democratic race upside down.

January 5, 2008: Scoring the New Hampshire debates

I do think Obama took some hits tonight; he stumbled a bit early, and Clinton probably scored some points with her sharp remarks about words being no substitute for hard work. However, and this is a huge however--the moments I remember from the night are mainly his. He gave a pitch-perfect response to Gibson's question about whether the surge in Iraq seems to have worked, denying the premise by saying it only seems that way because the bar's been set so low by giant failure. It made all the other candidates' technocratic quibblings seem stupid. He turned Hillary's premise about pretty speeches meaning nothing around on her, saying he thought words can matter a lot when people are hungry to be led.

Obama did this a number of times during the night, parrying critiques by saying essentially expand your narrow Washington outlook and don't get bogged down arguing point by point. He's uniquely good at this, with his cadence, his smile, his demeanor, his background. It's why he's going to win New Hampshire, he inspires you even if you don't always agree with all his positions (and I happen to, in general).

Obama resonates with ordinary people because he's just like us, but more competent. One of the funniest moment of the night was when he was asked about his reaction to what the Republicans had said about him; he said well, I was watching their debate, but I have to admit I also watched a lot of the football game.

At which point Charlie Gibson asked him how the Redskins had done, Obama informed him they'd lost, Gibson expressed disgust, and everyone laughed.

I was wrong of course about New Hampshire, but right about Obama. I really liked that debate, with Charlie Gibson moderating; it was American democracy at its best.

February 2, 2008: Clinton's last stand against Obama

I think unless Hillary Clinton blows out Barack Obama in Super Tuesday's delegate race, Obama will have a clear path to the Democratic nomination.

With 22 states voting Tuesday, there are a bunch of voters who will be casting their ballots without any real exposure to the candidates; in such cases, name recognition--and plain old inertia--will help Clinton a lot.

In order of definitiveness, I think Obama will win Illinois, Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota and Georgia for sure--the Times reports Clinton's not even advertising in any of these states.

I think Clinton will win New York (home state), New Jersey (near-home state), Arkansas (home state), and Tennessee (big lead in polls) for sure.

I think Obama will win a lot of states that are currently either tied, or leaning Clinton: Connecticut (late endorsements will help), Alabama (African Americans), Idaho (see below), Kansas (mom's home state plus governor's endorsement), and Massachusetts (Clinton's had a big lead, but I think Kennedy endorsement will be enough).

I think Clinton will win Arizona (older voters, Latinos), Missouri (it's a weird state, she's been up in all the polls), and Oklahoma (no diversity).

I have no opinion on Delaware, New Mexico, North Dakota, or Utah--haven't seen any data, not sure which way they'll go.

I'm also not sure about California, which is obviously the most important Super Tuesday contest; you could argue the winner of this primary is the front-runner the rest of the way. ...

Hillary's only hope is some sort of momentum post-Super Tuesday, adn the Latino-vote thing. On the latter, it's a weird for her camp to hang its strategy on--it's not like there's any strong reason for Latino's to support the Clintons. It's more a level of discomfort with an African-American politician, but that's something which is likely to dissipate with time and exposure.

I think the calendar and the dwindling Latino thing is what all the veteran politicians, editorial boards, and unions who have started to endorse Obama are looking at.

Politicians and journalists and union leaders are people too; so it could just be everyone's seeing the merits of Obama's message, tapping into the mix of intellect and emotion that the giant crowds at all his events feel.

But these professional operatives didn't get where they are just by riding emotion. They're taking a cold, hard look at the remaining states, and realizing that if Clinton doesn't knock him out Tuesday, the rest of the race plays to Obama's strengths.

Who knows--maybe Obama will even win a majority of delegates on Tuesday, even without the giants of NY/NJ/CA. In which case it'll definitely be curtains for Clinton.

This was a good post; I predicted almost all of the states correctly, and said Obama was going to win this thing if Clinton didn't wipe him out on Super Tuesday, which is exactly what happened. Nearly all pundits and analysts didn't come to this conclusion until well into March.

February 19, 2008: Obama strides past Wisconsin win

Tonight's the night Barack Obama started acting like the Democratic nominee for president.

It's customary for candidates to coordinate their speech times, so they don't step on each other. Tonight, Obama started speaking a few minutes into Hillary Clinton's speech.

He didn't care--and, on cue, FOX News and MSNBC and CNN cut her off--you could actually hear someone on FOX yelling CUT TO HIM NOW. ...

Obama is incredibly strategic; he's building these huge volunteer organizations in each state as it comes up, spending a ton of money on grassroots organizing--but not just so he can win the caucuses and primaries. He's doing it so he has a network he can tap into for the general election; and beyond. He wants to build up the Democratic party, but also build up support so after he's elected he can get lawmakers to sign on to his likely fundamental policy shifts. His change is so not just rhetoric; it's concrete and structural and is going to be a mighty force for at least the next decade.

I bolded it in the original; it turned out to be Obama's hallmark outof this election. The thing people forget about Obama is he's ruthless--he really wants to win, not at all costs but he's not in it to look good. The talking over Clinton's speech was an early sign of that.

March 30, 2008: Don't put Barack in a box

Members of the artistic set--whether actors or sculptors or musicians or authors--like pretending they know more about politics than politicians. Because of course there's no better way to understand politics than spending your working hours in a studio.

Just as most non-artists have no idea how hard it is to create good art, so most non-politicians have no idea how complicated politics is.

Journalists, though, should know better. Which is why Holland Cotter's an idiot for suggesting that Barack Obama is lagging behind behind artists when it comes to talking about race.

His article sounds good, but let's be serious--Obama has done more to bring topics of race into the national discussion, and has better ideas about addressing problems related to race, than any artist you might catch in a gallery near you.

To play it any other way is just being silly. ...

Cotter gets it exactly backwards--Obama has never said we're over race in this country. To think that an intelligent black man could believe that is every white person's dream, their 'I told you so' silver bullet.

What Obama's been trying to do is get people to look beyond his race when judging his fitness to be president, which, as far as we know, is not a job that requires scruity of someone's race. To get to a point where every discussion of him doesn't mention his race.

It's too bad that Cotter seems to only value and assess the works of these black artists in terms of their contribution or lack thereof to the discussion of race in this country.

Lucky for us, Obama's candidacy is about so much more.

Yup--he wasn't running to be the first black president, he was running to be president; but of course that doesn't mean he thinks racism isn't a problem anymore. If anything, he probably thinks racism is such a big problem, the only way he could win was to not run as black. And this was before Obama's Philadelphia speech on race.

April 17, 2008: ABC was doing its job--debate will help Obama, not Clinton

Everyone who's outraged over tonight's debate on ABC--in particular the first 50-odd minutes when Barack Obama was getting hammered with questions from Charlie Gibson, George Stephanopoulos and Hillary Clinton--are missing the big picture: Tonight's debate treated Obama as the Democratic nominee.

Think about it--if this man is advancing to the final round in the race to be president of the United States, wouldn't you want to throw everything at him, to see how he responds?

Clinton has no path to victory, so she had no choice but to spend the night talking about him. Imagine if it were John McCain and Mike Huckabee up there--who'd you rather be, McCain getting raked over the coals because he matters, or Huckabee getting ignored because he doesn't?

So you give the car you're planning to buy one last, good, going-over; kick the tires, test out all the features. That's what the voters want, and that's why ABC spent most of the debate on Obama.

As long as the car starts--and Barack Obama did more than start, he roared at times tonight--it doesn't matter if you find some flaws.

This is the car you're going home with; the other car just happens to be sitting next to it on the lot, why would you waste time on it?

This is also why I thought the Republicans were idiots for making the general election campaign all about Obama. He's a Ferrari; why would you want to keep shining a spotlight on it?!

June 9, 2008: As long as he stays overseas

Roger Cohen's got an Op-Ed in the Times about how much the French love Barack Obama.

Cohen doesn't mention the profound problem, of course, of a country supposedly in love with a black American that's only got one black Frenchman in parliament.

Lost in the wave of Euro-adulation for Obama is it doesn't seem like the old country understands his repeated line, 'only in America'.

September 1, 2008: Obama: I was born to a teen mom, too

Anyone still doubting that Barack Obama is a different type of politician should see his answer to a question about Sarah Palin's 17-year-old daughter being pregnant, via Atlantic's Marc Ambinder:

Jake Tapper: Governor Palin and her husband issued a statement today saying that their 17 year old daughter Bristol who is unmarried is 5 months pregnant. Do you have a comment?

BO: I have heard some of the news on this and so let me be as clear as possible. I have said before and I will repeat again, I think people's families are off limits, and people's children are especially off limits. This shouldn't be part of our politics, it has no relevance to governor Palin's performance as a governor or her potential performance as a vice president. And so I would strongly urge people to back off these kinds of stories. You know my mother had me when she was 18. And how family deals with issues and teenage children that shouldn't be the topic of our politics and I hope that anybody who is supporting me understands that is off limits.
I actually disagree with Obama, because Palin's made so much of her strong Christian values and is so strongly against teaching safe sex.

But how many politicans would willingly reach out to the teenage daughter in this case, saying in effect hey, my mom was there too--and look at how things turned out.

One of many telling moments that Obama is different. I'm curious whether Palin, freed from her VP role, will remember things like this.

October 29, 2008: Obama seals the deal

It's Barack Obama's 30-minute closing ad--and it starts with spectacular scenes of fields of wheat. Then Obama speaking directly on tape from a very presidential-looking office. Next it's him with voters, then a live cut-in from a speech in Florida. ...

Obama on the stump, I am not a perfect man, but will always be honest, listen to you when we disagree, open the doors of government.

Wow, live from Florida, in a huge basketball arena, big crowd. He's talking directly to the camera. In 6 days, we can choose... rebuild economy, hope over fear, unity over division, promise of change over the status quo, come together as one nation. Lists people across the country he wants to help. 2 minutes left; in this last week, if you'll knock on some doors, make some calls, stand with me, we will win this eletion, and together we will change this country and change this world. Crowd goes nuts, and as always the timing is perfect, he's smiling.

Website, phone number; Joe Biden joins him up on stage, they're holding hands; wow.

Yeah, that was amazingly powerful. I've been saying landslide all along--dimensions might be even bigger than thought.

Wow, and in a huge mistake, McCain runs a negative ad a few minutes after Obama on FOX and right before the World Series resumes! It just feels so wrong....

A lot of this campaign did come down to touch--Obama always had it, McCain almost never. It's an important quality for a president to have, I think; it's what keeps them in sync with the American people, so they can decide whether to lead or follow.

November 4, 2008: Why Obama will win in a landslide

Well, the headline really says it all on that post. It's amazing how long this great campaign has gone on for; I already miss checking poll results and reading the latest interesting/blind thoughts from pundits.

I can guarantee, though, that the Obama administration will be even better than the Obama campaign. It should be a great four years, with another four after that.