Clinton's last stand against Obama

I think unless Hillary Clinton blows out Barack Obama in Super Tuesday's delegate race, Obama will have a clear path to the Democratic nomination.

With 22 states voting Tuesday, there are a bunch of voters who will be casting their ballots without any real exposure to the candidates; in such cases, name recognition--and plain old inertia--will help Clinton a lot.

In order of definitiveness, I think Obama will win Illinois, Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota and Georgia for sure--the Times reports Clinton's not even advertising in any of these states.

I think Clinton will win New York (home state), New Jersey (near-home state), Arkansas (home state), and Tennessee (big lead in polls) for sure.

I think Obama will win a lot of states that are currently either tied, or leaning Clinton: Connecticut (late endorsements will help), Alabama (African Americans), Idaho (see below), Kansas (mom's home state plus governor's endorsement), and Massachusetts (Clinton's had a big lead, but I think Kennedy endorsement will be enough).

I think Clinton will win Arizona (older voters, Latinos), Missouri (it's a weird state, she's been up in all the polls), and Oklahoma (no diversity).

I have no opinion on Delaware, New Mexico, North Dakota, or Utah--haven't seen any data, not sure which way they'll go.

I'm also not sure about California, which is obviously the most important Super Tuesday contest; you could argue the winner of this primary is the front-runner the rest of the way.

The L.A. Times endorsement and Oprah will help Obama, but Clinton had a big lead, and the Latino voters of course. It all depends on what happens the next few days; I think it'll be that close.

But after Tuesday, the electoral calendar opens up. Contests are well-spaced, with plenty of time for the candidates to concentrate on states and for voters to really listen to Obama and Clinton.

Here's the first part of the calendar, and my predictions (I'm struck at how Obama-friendly this list is):

-Saturday, 2/9: Washington/Obama (progressive, young, liberal state), Louisiana/Obama (African-American voters), Nebraska/Obama (His mom's from Kansas)

-Sunday, 2/10: Maine/No opinion

-Tuesday, 2/12: DC/Obama, Virginia/Obama, Maryland/Obama (African-American vote, progressive young voters)

-Tuesday, 2/19: Wisconsin/Obama (progressive young voters), Hawaii (home state)

After that, there's two weeks (!) until Texas and Ohio vote (along with Rhode Island and Vermont).

You give Obama two full weeks to concentrate on a state, and you get a 20% margin of victory like in South Carolina.

Hillary's only hope is some sort of momentum post-Super Tuesday, adn the Latino-vote thing. On the latter, it's a weird for her camp to hang its strategy on--it's not like there's any strong reason for Latino's to support the Clintons. It's more a level of discomfort with an African-American politician, but that's something which is likely to dissipate with time and exposure.

I think the calendar and the dwindling Latino thing is what all the veteran politicians, editorial boards, and unions who have started to endorse Obama are looking at.

Politicians and journalists and union leaders are people too; so it could just be everyone's seeing the merits of Obama's message, tapping into the mix of intellect and emotion that the giant crowds at all his events feel.

But these professional operatives didn't get where they are just by riding emotion. They're taking a cold, hard look at the remaining states, and realizing that if Clinton doesn't knock him out Tuesday, the rest of the race plays to Obama's strengths.

Who knows--maybe Obama will even win a majority of delegates on Tuesday, even without the giants of NY/NJ/CA. In which case it'll definitely be curtains for Clinton.

Check out the coverage today from Obama's trip to Idaho, Barack Obama wows, inspires crowd at Taco Bell Arena

Even Barack Obama was surprised by the Idaho crowd.

“They told me there weren’t any Democrats in Idaho — that’s what they told me,” he said. “But I didn’t believe them.”

About 13,000 Idahoans crammed Taco Bell Arena to see and hear the Democratic presidential candidate this morning — and organizers said many more people were turned away at the door.

“I can’t believe it — can you believe it?” Obama said. “It’s unbelievable. … What a remarkable crowd.” ...

Marsha Meredith, who recently moved to Idaho from California, was visibly moved.

"There are tears in my eyes," she said. "I've been waiting so many years for this. I haven't been involved in politics before, but everything he said about teachers, about schools, about the economy — look at me, I'm crying."

Earlier, former Gov. Cecil Andrus introduced “the man I think should be and will be the next president of the United States.”

“I’ve been around a long time and I’ve seen a lot of political candidates come and go,” Andrus said. But he said that not since John F. Kennedy had he seen someone with the ability to “bring together, to excite and to inspire the people of America like Barack Obama."

"He is the custodian of the hope and the dream of millions and millions of Americans.”

Really, his campaign just needs to buy air time to run clips from his speeches....

Just look at what's going on with Obama's Yes We Can music video that's just been released--the YouTube clip I watched had 311 views--with 100 comments, 267 favorited, and 385 ratings (4 stars).

I've never seen that before--it's pretty amazing that 1 out of every 3 person who watched it made a comment, and that almost everyone made it a favorite. Maybe almost as startling as seeing long YouTube clips of Obama's speeches hitting a million views.

In further testimony to Obama's YouTube popularity, it cracks me up that famous YouTube clips that have nothing to do with Obama--like Britney Fan Crying, and Laughing Baby--throw Obama's name into their keywords.

The music video's below; it's pretty effective. Watch it back-to-back with his actual South Carolina speech; the brilliant anti-Clinton/1984 Apple ad; and, of course, a couple of the Obama Girl vids.