Obama strides past Wisconsin win

Tonight's the night Barack Obama started acting like the Democratic nominee for president.

It's customary for candidates to coordinate their speech times, so they don't step on each other. Tonight, Obama started speaking a few minutes into Hillary Clinton's speech.

He didn't care--and, on cue, FOX News and MSNBC and CNN cut her off--you could actually hear someone on FOX yelling CUT TO HIM NOW.

His crowd in Houston was huge and vocal; it filled the home of the Houston Rockets, which seats 19,000. (The Houston Chronicle's live blog said people posted ads on Craigslist saying they'd pay up to $75; one add offered a ticket for $200). Also from the Chron's blog:

Security tells us that Obama is in the building, but that he might venture outside the greet the supporters who couldn't inside the crowded arena.

Her crowd in Ohio was much smaller and much quieter; she spoke in a high school arena.

The Times live blog mentions his cutting in 'her time' as a possible breach of etiquettte; my thought is if one candidate has 19,000 waiting for them to speak, and another has a few hundred, candidate B had better make sure she gets it right.

Obama mentioned Wisconsin right off the top, which he won by his customary big margin; she plowed ahead as if she was in a time warp.

He was his usual eloquent, authentic self. She tried out another new slogan (Solutions!) and sounded strained.

His crowd was wonderfully diverse. Hers was all white, and mainly women.

He changed up his stump speech, adding a section about how real change requires more than big rallies, rousing speeches, good websites. We don't lack good ideas--"the problem is Washington is a place where good ideas go to die."

It's amazing that he's blowing Clinton out, and most people don't even know he doesn't take any money from lobbyists or PACs, and she does.

Interesting, Obama said as aware as he is that he's not the perfect vessel, he's running because he thinks he can really change things. Haven't heard that line before.

Ah, mentions lobbyists haven't funded his campaign; given that everyone's carried his speech in full so far, this is great publicity you can't buy. Poor Clinton only got a few minutes.

Funny, Houston Chronicle's blog has just discovered that Obama speaks without a teleprompter.

On a side note, I've been watching a lot of Fox News the last few weeks--they're surprisingly good, a bit of a bias but in general totally professional. Curious given how they're by far the biggest cable news network how many republicans are coming over to Obama courtesy of Fox News' extensive coverage of Obama's speeches, and campaign.

All the Clinton supporters complaining about media bias should think long and hard about whether the lack of negative coverage reflects reality. The electorate so far certainly seem to think so.

As he speaks, his lead in Wisconsin is growing, it's now up to 13%. As I wrote after Super Tuesday, Clinton can't recover from a long string of big losses and needed to have a huge lead coming out of California et al. I wrote at the beginning of this month that Obama was going to win at least 9 of the next 10 states (I had no opinion on Maine).

I don't think the Clinton campaign believed it would happen; they've now got two weeks to let the shock settle in, and try to figure out how they can win every one of the remaining states by at least 60%.

Good luck; I think Obama will win easily three states on March 4 (Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont), and has a shot at winning Ohio too.

The election's been over for a few weeks now; I think most Americans are beginning to realize it.

Ah, my favorite lines from his stump speech--he doesn't just want to end the war in Iraq, he wants to end the mindset that got us into it. Followed by he wants to meet not just with our friends, but also our enemies.

I don't agree totally with this--you need someone coherent on the other side to negotiate with, who has the power to deliver--but at least he's thinking differently.

He mentions Darfur, which is smart, given how many people from Africa live in Houston (mainly Nigeria). I also like it when he mentions he's an ex-constitutional law professor; he's going to get a lot of libertarian/Ron Paul-type votes in November, I think.

One of the biggest applause lines of the night: The last thing we need is the same old folks doing the same old things making the same old mistakes. We can only change if we bring new people into the government, if we stop fighting with Republicans and form a working majority.

Ah, brings up John McCain, but briefly; McCain earlier dwelled on Obama. Some new lines of emphasis tonight, all focused around people criticizing him for being naive/inexperienced.

The networks must have numbers that show people watch while Obama's speaking; they've stayed with pretty much his entire speech ever election night since Super Tuesday. Or maybe this is just when everyone's taking their dinner breaks.

Obama is incredibly strategic; he's building these huge volunteer organizations in each state as it comes up, spending a ton of money on grassroots organizing--but not just so he can win the caucuses and primaries. He's doing it so he has a network he can tap into for the general election; and beyond. He wants to build up the Democratic party, but also build up support so after he's elected he can get lawmakers to sign on to his likely fundamental policy shifts. His change is so not just rhetoric; it's concrete and structural and is going to be a mighty force for at least the next decade.

I'm curious if the Clinton campaign will complain about all the coverage Obama gets; not sure how she can compete against this. McCain, too. It's astonishing, actually--it's been all Obama for exactly 45 minutes, for essentially his stump speech.

The highly-intuitive Keith Olbermann mentions how it seems like tonight was the first pitch of the general election game against McCain. CNN's saying the same, as they promise to show some of Clinton's speech on tape delay--they note she didn't even mention Wisconsin or congratulate Obama or thank the voters in her speech.

Over-pursuing

Sunday with the New York Times....

Ships in the night
The Love Boat for Policy Wonks, Henry Alford:

I’M dancing on the top deck with a 71-year-old feminist and psychotherapist whom I’ve come to think of as the Twirler. We’ve spent two days attending seminars on The Nation magazine’s Alaska cruise; we’ve talked about the Bush presidency and prison reform and single-payer health care. Now, at almost midnight, my fiercely intelligent and opinionated new friend Charlotte is putting all the heady political talk behind her by bodily twirling.

“If I start to get dizzy then I twirl in the opposite direction,” she tells me as the live band revs up its throbbing Motown beat. ...

The five hours of discussion provided ample opportunity to see some of the cruise’s speakers in action; by day’s end it was clear that the encyclopedic and oratorically gifted Mr. Nader was gradually winning people over, and that most of the cruisers thought the Nation publisher and editor-in-chief Katrina vanden Heuvel was, as one gentleman put it to me, “a total fox.”

At one point, the director of the Nation cruise addressed the audience and told us that the cruise sponsored by the conservative National Review was one day behind us. Warning us about being prompt when reboarding the ship at each port, he said: “If you miss the ship, you’re going to be with National Review tomorrow. That’s your penalty — you’ll have to spend time with John Bolton.” ...

FUELED by these two anecdotes, I searched in vain for examples of kicky, unhinged Nation-based fun. Instead, I saw much seriousness of purpose — I saw one Nation reader, apparently unfinished with his conversation with Ralph Nader in the hallway, follow Mr. Nader into the men’s room; I overhead another cruiser express disappointment to his wife that the casino’s roulette “has a double zero, thus giving a 5 percent advantage to the house in the game that already has the worst odds for the player.”

What about Sesame Street?
Is PBS Still Necessary?, Charles McGrath:

If you’re the sort of traditional PBS viewer who likes extended news broadcasts, say, or cooking shows, old movies and shows about animals gnawing each other on the veld, cable now offers channels devoted just to your interest. Cable is a little like the Internet in that respect: it siphons off the die-hards. Public television, meanwhile, more and more resembles everything else on TV. Since corporate sponsors were allowed to extend their “credit” announcements to 30 seconds, commercials in all but name have been a regular feature on public television, and that’s not to mention pledge programs, the fund-raising equivalent of water-boarding.

Talking himself off the ledge
So Who Wins the Big Prize? It’s the Host, Joe Rhodes:

THE audience members, 325 people who had waited outside for nearly three hours, shivering in the wet breezes of a California midwinter storm, were going nuts before he even walked onstage, screaming as if they were at a pep rally, dancing in the aisles, chanting his name, making so much noise they barely even noticed that he’d begun speaking, that Drew Carey was already asking, “What’s the first item up for bids today on ‘The Price Is Right’?”

The ratings for “Price,” America’s longest-running game show are down — by 9 percent since Mr. Carey took over as host from Bob Barker in October — but you’d never know it from the enthusiasm of the crowds that still pour into Studio 33 (since last year also known as the Bob Barker Studio) of CBS’s Television City complex in Hollywood. They show up wearing their homemade “Drew Is the Man” T-shirts, erupting with high-decibel elation whenever Rich Fields, the announcer, asks one of them to “come on down!” ...

“And for every single person that makes it onstage, it’s like a Joseph Campbell journey, an everyman plucked from obscurity to attempt a journey, with obstacles placed in their way. And I just want to be a good guy for them, so they can win money. I’m there to help them on their journey.”

Mr. Carey, 49, said that in the past two years he has undergone a “huge spurt of spiritual growth,” having immersed himself in texts from the Bible to books by Wayne Dyer and Marianne Williamson. The result is a changed attitude about comedy, show business and himself.

“I’ve thought about changing my name, I’ve changed so much,” he said, “If Drew Carey now met Drew Carey from 5 or 10 years ago, I wouldn’t recognize him.”

Although he was known as a generally good guy, famous for those big tips and hanging out with fans before and after stand-up shows, Mr. Carey said he was carrying a chip on his shoulder through all the successful years of his sitcom. In his 1997 autobiography he wrote about a difficult childhood and adult battles with depression. He was not as carefree as he seemed.

“That chip on my shoulder, that’s a fear of not being accepted, a fear of not being good enough,” he said. “It was like: ‘Here’s little Drew Carey from Cleveland, and they’re not recognizing that I’ve done something with my life. Hey, why aren’t you recognizing it?’

People's candidate
Out of Office, Will He Be Out of Sorts?, Diane Cardwell:

Six years of wielding the power of government office and reveling in the ego boost of broad support from ordinary New Yorkers have fueled Mr. Bloomberg’s desire to run the country, these associates say, and diminished his excitement over his oft-stated plan to pursue a full-time career in philanthropy.

And as his presidential hopes have appeared to fizzle of late, friends say, Mr. Bloomberg has been acting grumpy as he faces decisions about what to do next.

“He was extremely successful, and then he was extremely successful as mayor,” said Michael H. Steinhardt, a hedge fund manager turned philanthropist, and a longtime friend of Mr. Bloomberg’s who played host to an early presidential strategy session. “Now where does he go from here? He doesn’t really care that much about his philanthropy. I think he likes hearing himself talk publicly — terrible way to put it, but I think that’s right.” ...

Some of those close to him say that Mr. Bloomberg gets a charge out of being able to change things and was itching to take advantage of the elaborate operation created by his political aide, Kevin Sheekey, to support an independent presidential campaign.

Even his denials of interest in running for president show how he has been bitten by the bug of government influence.

Being mayor is “a real executive job,” he said at a forum at Cooper Union in September. “I’d say, ‘Tomorrow I want Fifth Avenue to run northbound rather than southbound.’ It may be a dumb idea, but tomorrow morning, there’d be a cop on every corner. Every sign would be changed. I mean, it would go northbound. That’s pretty heady stuff.”

Bumbling, stumbling
Where You Going With That Monet?, Randy Kennedy:

THE plots of art heist movies are about as multifarious as the canvases of the paintings pilfered by their main characters — the postmodern heroin-cool of Nick Nolte in “The Good Thief”; the playboy-billionaire boredom of Pierce Brosnan in “The Thomas Crown Affair.” But one thing art theft movies tend to have in common is that they dwell on the heist and not on the aftermath, for reasons that are probably more than cinematic: art is an exceedingly dumb thing to steal.

The most valuable examples, usually paintings, are also the most highly recognizable and therefore almost impossible to resell or to display anywhere. When thieves try they are often caught. And so most real art bandits don’t exude quite the élan of a Nolte or Brosnan or even of a good, methodical jewel thief. In fact, they are often found pretty far down the ladder of professional purloining, acting on impulse or opportunity in a world in which museums are still relatively unguarded public spaces. And in many cases, to put it bluntly, art thieves are just not very good.

They are more like a Dutch man named Octave Durham — a k a the Monkey — who was sentenced to prison in 2004 for stealing two paintings from the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam two years earlier. He and an accomplice had little trouble breaking into the museum but then left behind a feast for crime scene investigators — ladders, ropes, cloths, hats — that easily provided the DNA evidence that led to their arrests.

In the latest heist to shake the art world, three men wearing ski masks walked into the E. G. Bührle Collection in Zurich on Feb. 9, grabbed a Cézanne, a Degas, a van Gogh and a Monet together worth an estimated $163 million, and tossed them into a van and sped off. Though one thief brandished a gun, there were signs that the job was probably not up to robbery’s highest standards: the most expensive of the collection’s paintings were left behind (the four that were stolen were in one room) and the police said the stolen paintings appeared to be poking out of the back of the white van the men used to make their getaway.

“No one theory can fit all examples of art theft, but I think it’s often an I.Q. test for not-so-smart criminals, and a lot of them fail,” said James Mintz, the principal of a corporate investigations firm with offices in New York, London, Zurich and other cities that has handled art cases. ...

Thomas McShane, a retired F.B.I. agent who led many art investigations in the 1970s and 1980s, said the motivations and methods of many of the thieves he came across could only be described as humorous. One man tried for years to fence a Rembrandt stolen in 1971 from a museum in France, dropping his street price from $5 million to $25,000, Mr. McShane recounted in his 2006 memoir “Stolen Masterpiece Tracker,” written with Dary Matera. “His only accomplishment,” Mr. McShane wrote of the criminal, a would-be Mafioso nicknamed Johnny Rio, “was expanding the ever-widening circle of people who knew he had it.” (He was caught and served a short prison sentence.)

What's the barrier to stupidity?
Neighbor vs. Neighbor, Josh Barbanel:

IMAGINE a letter slipped under an apartment door, and then a warning of a lawsuit in the offing: “As you may not be aware, we are both lawyers and both litigators, for whom the usual barriers to litigation are minimal.”

That was the curt beginning of a lawsuit at the Ansonia, a condominium on Broadway and 73rd Street, filed this month by two Ivy League-educated lawyers against a neighbor, a restaurateur, over secondhand smoke they said was wafting into the hallway from her apartment. Jonathan Selbin, whose field is class-action cases, and his wife, Jenny Selbin, represented themselves, without a fee, according to state court filings.

The case has raised concern among managing agents and lawyers about secondhand smoke in co-ops and condominiums as well as the appropriateness of lawyers’ using their knowledge of the legal system to take on neighbors.

“It is not unethical — it is unneighborly,” said Stephen Gillers, a law professor at New York University who specializes in legal ethics. “It is contrary to what we think of when we use the word cooperative. It is unwise, unless you are desperate.”

Obama surge as Clinton melts

Obama's gonna blow out Hillary Clinton again Tuesday, in Wisconsin and Hawaii. Not sure what Clinton's strategy for Wisconsin was--she parachuted in yesterday, after Obama's been camped out in the state since Tuesday.

Now, it looks like she's leaving a day ahead of schedule, ditching out Monday--the internal polls must show she has no shot at winning or even keeping it close.

Even worse, snowstorms are hitting today in Wisconsin--wonder if the Obama campaign took the long-range weather forecast into account? Characteristically, Clinton's campaign originally claimed she was leaving Monday to avoid the storms (ha! they must think reporters don't have access to weather forecasts). Oddly, it also said her daughter and husband would stay in the state.

Here are some characteristic items about Obama as he campaigns in the Badger state.

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Racine rallies around Obama:

And Obama also chastised a man who asked him his views on Native Americans and about how the country has been "screwed" by the NAFTA trade agreement.

"Ask one question and do it in a more polite manner," Obama said.

AP, via Wisconsin State Journal:

Barack Obama is wearing a wristband in memory of a soldier killed in Iraq, given to him by a mother who said she wants the Democratic presidential candidate to keep others from dying.

Tracy Jopek of Merrill, Wis., gave Obama the bracelet at a rally Friday night in Green Bay, and Obama was still wearing it Saturday as he campaigned across the state before Tuesday's primary.

The bracelet has her son's name, Sgt. Ryan David Jopek, and the date the 20-year-old was killed in Iraq by a roadside bomb, Aug. 2, 2006. "All gave some - He gave all," it says.

"She gave me this wristband, which I'm very grateful for," Obama told the Green Bay audience, halting and lowering his voice from his normally upbeat presentation. "I meet mothers and family members all over the country who are still mourning their children but are also thinking about the young men and women who are still over there and wondering when it will end."

Obama has not made a point of showing it to reporters or others on the campaign trail. A campaign staffer described it as black metal band with silver lettering.

Obama a Hit in Japanese Town, AP

Barack Obama has never been to this port town on Japan's snowy west coast, and residents only know him from news reports on his faraway campaign for the U.S. presidency.

No matter, Obama the town is nuts about Obama the man.

Obama's name graces posters hung in the main hotel. Headbands and T-shirts with drawings of the candidate's face will be available soon. Local confectioners are designing Japanese-style sweet bean cakes with Obama's portrait on them.

Policy doesn't seem to matter much either to this Obama, which is well-known in Japan for its lacquerware. Instead, the overriding issue is simple: Obama's name.

"Obama gives good speeches and has a good voice, so I want him to do well. And, of course, we share the same name," said Seiji Fujiwara, a hotel executive and leader of a local support group established earlier this month for the Illinois senator. ...

Supporters of Obama here, like their counterparts in the U.S., are now looking forward to the March 4 Democratic primary contests in delegate-rich Texas and Ohio.

The 30-member support group plans to put on headbands and T-shirts with portraits of Obama to watch the results on television together, said Fujiwara. They plan to sell Obama sweets and chopsticks — once they get clearance from the candidate.

Susan Lampert Smith in the Wisconsin State Journal, Time passing by Clinton generation

The cute girl in the YouTube video has a crush on Obama.

I know how she feels. I've had a crush on Bill Clinton. ...

Clinton didn 't seem bothered by the fact that Barack Obama outdrew him nearly 10-to-1 at the jam-packed Kohl Center two days before.

Clinton delivered his valentine to Hillary, telling the students that his wife started changing the world back when she was their age and a Yale law student. He talked about how America 's status had gone to the dogs since he left office.

He talked and he talked, for over an hour.

By contrast, the Obama event had been quick-boom-bang. There was the cool celebrity video by the Black Eyed Peas on the big screen, a quick introduction by Gov. Jim Doyle, and a trademark Obama speech, short on details, long on inspiration.

He talked about the young crowd, not to them: It's your time, seize the moment.

Remember 1992, when the Clintons were the cool young people?

Reagan wordsmith Peggy Noonan's Confidence or Derangement?, Confidence or Derangement? in the Wall Street Journal

She has also taken to raising boxing gloves and waving them triumphantly from the podium. Is this a fruitful way to go? It's her way, bluster and combat. People do what they know how to do.

A better way might be honesty. I say this in the sense that an old Richard Nixon hand used it when he said, "Nixon doesn't always think honesty is the best policy, but he does think it's a policy." He saw it as a strategic gambit, to be used like any other.

But imagine if she tried honesty and humility. When everyone in America knows you're in a dreadful position, admit you're in a dreadful position. Don't lie about it and make them roll their eyes, tell the truth and make them blink.

As in: "Look, let's be frank. A lot of politics is spin, for reasons we can all write books about. I'm as guilty as anyone else. But right now I'm in the fight of my life, and right now I'm not winning. I'm up against an opponent who's classy and accomplished and who has captured the public imagination. I've had some trouble doing that. I'm not one of those people you think of when you hear a phrase like 'the romance of history.' But I think I bring some things to the table that I haven't quite managed to explain. I think I've got a case to be made that I haven't quite succeeded in making. And I'm going to ask you for one more try. Will you listen? And if I convince you, will you help me? Because I need your help."

Could Mrs. Clinton do something like this? I doubt it. She'd think it concedes too much and would look weak. But maybe it would show an emotional suppleness, and a characterological ability to see things as they are, which is always nice in a president.

Frank Rich in the Times, The Grand Old White Party Confronts Obama

As some Republicans drift away in a McCain-Obama race, who fills the vacuum? Among the white guys flanking Mr. McCain at his victory celebration on Tuesday, revealingly enough, was the once-golden George Allen, the Virginia Republican who lost his Senate seat and presidential hopes in 2006 after being caught on YouTube calling a young Indian-American Democratic campaign worker “macaca.”

In that incident, Mr. Allen added insult to injury by also telling the young man, “Welcome to America and the real world of Virginia.” As election results confirmed both in 2006 and last week, it is Mr. Allen who is the foreigner in 21st century America, Mr. Allen who is in the minority in the real world of Virginia. A national rout in 2008 just may be that Republican Party’s last stand.

Paving the way for peace

There's a story out from the AP, that Mao offered U.S. 10 million women. It's actually a really interesting read; and my take is U.S-Chinese relations would be much better know had the offer been accepted.

Not to mention our average IQ would definitely be higher.

Amid a discussion of trade in 1973, Chinese leader Mao Zedong made what U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger called a novel proposition: sending tens of thousands, even 10 million, Chinese women to the United States.

"You know, China is a very poor country," Mao said, according to a document released by the State Department's historian office.

"We don't have much. What we have in excess is women. So if you want them we can give a few of those to you, some tens of thousands."

A few minutes later, Mao circled back to the offer. "Do you want our Chinese women?" he asked. "We can give you 10 million."

After Kissinger noted Mao was "improving his offer," the chairman said, "We have too many women. ... They give birth to children and our children are too many."

"It is such a novel proposition," Kissinger replied in his discussion with Mao in Beijing. "We will have to study it."

Sports is politics

From one of my favorite sports columnists, Sports Illustrated's Dr. Z.

From Gene (and incidentally, I know how Toms River got its name... after Dr. John J. River) -- "What the hell is our congress doing spending money looking into past drug use instead of preventing any future abuse?" From Dave -- "Spygate has become a symbol for how to adjust focus on something to avoid 'the something' that truly matters." And he goes on to mention the somethings that truly matter -- price setting by energy conglomerates, the phony war in Iraq, that failure of adequate compensation for indigent NFL veterans, and politicians' lack of the same commitment to these issues.

First the drugs, which I interpret to mean steroids and HGH, which triggered that TV show from the Washington hearing room. Gosh, wasn't it fun, all those politicians pretending they were like something out of Court TV?

Did they have the power to really bring charges? Uh, no. Did they have the power to reach a verdict and impose a penalty? Come on now. So what were they doing there? They appeared at Clemens' request, after he had gone around and personally schmoozed a selected group of them. Somehow there was the vague threat of punishment to Roger for lying to Congress, although the president has gotten away with it for years.

What I saw, though, in the 10 minutes or so that I was able to watch it, was something right out of the old radio show, It Pays to be Ignorant. It was one of my favorites when I was a child. It was a brilliant parody of quiz shows, such as Information Please and The Quiz Kids. This poor old ex-vaudevillian, Tom Howard, would ask his idiot panel a question such as, "Who was buried in Grant's Tomb?" and for 15 minutes or so the most moronic discussion would take place, without the question ever being answered.

The part that I watched of this week's version was Sen. John Tierney trying to get an answer from Clemens to the question, "How do you say three times in your deposition that you never did speak to [Brian] McNamee about steroids and later on acknowledge that, in fact, you had?" And Clemens would bounce this back on one hop... "It was prior."

"What was prior? You contradicted your own deposition."

"It was before that."

"What was before? First you said you didn't, then you admitted you did."

"Not the way you mean it." ...

Enough rabble rousing. Lee of Elma, N.Y., asks, and here we go again, "If Bill Belichick is found to have taped the Rams before the Super Bowl, will he go down as the Richard Nixon of NFL coaches?"

Did you know that Nixon was a wine buff? The story they tell about him is that, when he'd entertain guests on his yacht, Sequoia, he'd have a bottle of 1966 Chateau Margaux wrapped in a towel and served only to himself, while his guests were served an inexpensive Zinfandel. I once did a column about that and interviewed members of the Wine & Food Society for their opinions. My favorite response was from Harriet Lembeck, who taught a wine class.

"Why, the '66 isn't ready yet," she said. ...

A nasty note from Ben of Seattle, advising me to get over my fixation with line play since no one else gives a rat's ... uh, gives a goshdarn about it. Grow up, Ben. Adults follow line play and its intricacies. Children with short attention spans watch only the ball and immediately flip the dial if a team has to punt.

Idol gives us 24 to know, and 1 to miss

They start with Ryan and Hayden Christinsen sitting virtually on top of some pyramids, turns out to be a promo for that new Jumper movie. Or whatever.

Everyone's together eating at a breakfast buffet, Ryan claims the judges aren't set yet on the finalists. Simon supposedly isn't happy with some of the choices; it's all overproduced. 50 people to show in an hour; they better get a move on.

Ronald Hodge first, it's the first time we've seen him. He apparently went funny his first time in Hollywood; and he's gone. He says he has no idea what he's gonna do now. Nina Shaw gone, first time also; Mycale Guyton, first and gone; Lisa Aukerman, likewise.

Carly Smithson, the Irish lass obviously makes it, they've been promoing her to death. Gosh, they show a ton of her singing; give me a break. Judges yammer to her, paint it as Hollywood good, San Diego bad. This is just dragggggging. Simon says just say yes or no to Paula, as she cries; Paula finally tells her yes, then gives her a hug as they tell her to be confident. I half like her, half don't; it drives me batty that they're pumping her up so much. Her segment goes on forever.

David Cook, the rocker guy, next; he'll make it. And he is in; short and sweet--he's hugging some fat chick with a shirt on that reads Baby Bump. Amanda Overmeyer next, rocker nurse will make it. She's pretty cool about it.

Brandon Green, Amanda Hawkins, Buck Smith--we meet them, then they're all gone in 4 seconds. David Archuleta next, he obviously makes it. They have Simon being serious to try and fake us out, but he's in.

Kristy Lee Cook next, backswoods girl will make it; she's cute. And she's in; Brooke White next, nanny will make it too, great tone to her voice--she's a nervous wreck, sobbing as she sits in front of the judges. They're so bad at acting, it's obvious she's in.

Danny Noriega next, easy in despite the chance he may have an attitude problem. Then, in a totally unfair sequence, three people who we haven't seen make it in; Jason Castro, Luke Menard, Alexandra Lushington--and they show them for 2 secs each.

Ramiele Malubay, the little Filipina who wants to be the first Asian American idol, is next; no opinion here, but she makes it. Wish she got more air time. She conducts herself in a very cute manner, her folks come over to celebrate.

Shaun Barrowes--hello, goodbye; big smile Lorena Pinot is gone, Drew Poppelreiter--oh, I liked him early, the farmer guy; some Natasha chick we've never seen before. Michael Johns next, he's obviously in. He could be a real dark horse.

Syesha Mercado, who I like and who lost her voice, will make it. Paula does a cheesy you've got a yes in your name; big smile from Syesha. Robbie Carrico, he'll make it too--this year's Ace Young. Simon pretends it was a split decision, but Paula obviously loves him.

It's 5 p.m. says Ryan, they zip through: Garrett Haley, Kady Malloy, Chikezie Eze, who I really like--all are in; also hot Amy Davis, Alaina Whitaker, Jason Yeager; he goes nuts. Asia'h Epperson, she's gotta make it; and she does, totally thrilled.

David Hernandez, Randy says not unanimous but I'm sure he made it; and he does. Simon says he voted against him, you gotta work a lot harder for a shot to win. Nice advice by Simon, hopefully the kid takes it to heart.

Josiah Leming, their darling; if they cut him they're total idiots. I'm sure he makes it, he tells the camera he thinks they're going to put him through, nervous but his gut says he's gonna keep going and it'll be amazing. Hmmm, they're editing it like he gets cut, though. He tells the judges he agrees with Simon and it all went to his head; oh my gosh, Randy says no. Wow! Be more consistent they say; this is totally ridiculous, they just cut their best contestant. He's crying, of course, painfully; hopefully somebody signs him. No family there for him, he's very soft-spoken, stands and talks to Ryan, a very brave kid, totally breaks down. People are comforting him; his segment lasts forever, but it's totally worthwhile.

They do that fake final four,

Here are my predictions for the final 12, in order of certainty in each group. Some kid we've never seen before, Colton Berry, polished kid vs. Kyle Ensley, the odd political-type. Kyle will make it, much more interesting. They show a clip of Simon saying a lot of people will like you, wish I had what you had. Wow, shocker--they cut Kyle! Simon says he totally disagrees, would've put Kyle through. I agree; wow, Simon really goes on, says he's really disappointed. Yeah, Colton is a total non-entity, he'll be gone soon. Two nice kids though. And they give Kyle the last word--ha, even the editors agree he's more interesting.

Girls are down to Cardin McKinney, who moved to Nashville for her career and JoAnne Borgella, plus-size model. They show JoAnne and Simon liking her; I think it'll be her, we'll see. Randy stretches it out, forces them to talk. After a long time, it's indeed JoAnne. They walk out holding hands; see, they need more moments like this, Simon says this is the point where I change my mind.

Montage of people losing, Drew again talks about not missing turkey season. Ryan introduces the top twelve guys, dancing; it's a fun segment. Then the chicks.

There are a lot more talented guys this year than last; but there are still more talented girls, I think.

David Archuleta
Danny Noriega
Michael Johns
Chikezie Eze
David Hernandez
David Cook

Kristy Lee Cook
Ramiele Malubay
Amanda Overmeyer
Asia'h Epperson
Amy Davis
Kady Malloy

Hollywood week, on Obama-Tuesday

Well, now that Obama has pretty much sewn up the nomination it's off to Hollywood week on Idol. 164 contestants, Ryan tells us; look forward to fleshing out my list of faves. Hmm, a new format, Seacrest hints. Back to two hours, at least.

They show some memorable moments from past years; then have Simon saying all but 50 of you are gonna be going home. New wrinkle: nobody really gets cut on the first two days, everyone gets two shots.

Well, so what's the point of the first round then? Brooke White first, the no-rated-R-movie chick who I liked. She's nervous as heck; they get to play instruments this year, going to sing and play. She's good, has some depth to her voice, it has life experience; very nice. Simon says he really likes her, great potential, Carly Simon/Carole Kingish. And she's through directly to the final day.

Lorena Pino, big smile girl, has some problems; some chick they've never shown before gets Nos too. Leo Marlowe, who I didn't like, goes cheesy and gets nixed too. They come back with a montage of people on stage; then Alisha Dixon, who has trouble with her instrument and keeps shouting after she's told to stop. Some new kid, Micheal, has guitar problems too; Alyssa Coco, another one they've never shown before, gets cut off quickly; Shaun Barrowes is just cheesy--a lot of critiques about the instruments, sheesh, just stop it already. Rely on your strength.

Jake Mellema does a super-cheesy song while banging away on the drums, it's totally ridiculous--are these people idiots? Stand up there, sing with nothing between you and the judges. Simon tells him horrible all around, nothing redeeming.

David Hernandez, another guy we haven't seen before; a bit too much maybe, based on his audition clip. Ooooh, he can totally sing--the other contestants start whooping a bit; he's gonna appeal to the chicks, I like him too, has a nice smile and good style. Hmm, a natural performer, has got people into it. Limited voice maybe, but he has a good song choice, Love the One You're With. Randy loved it from note one, Simon says great, very comfortable up there. He seems pretty humble; with a sense of humor as he goofs around a bit after.

Halfway through day one, it's really moving quick; some people getting ripped. Ryan keeps saying the competition is really stiff; so far they've only shown two people. Rocker nurse Amanda Overmyer, who was in a bad accident after the auditions. Does an interesting verison of Light My Fire; it's a bit much for me, but she's really into it, and it feels very authentic. Abrupt ending, tepid response from the peers; Randy says you're really Janis Joplinish, loves it, unique; Paula adores her; Simon says everything you do is the same, need to shade your voice otherwise it'll become monotonous.

More failures, including people who didn't know the words... some Bo Bice-wannabe is ridiculous, some chick just keeps screaming; they've never shown any of these people, including a chick who just stands there and vamps, totally forgets the words. Last contestant of the day--super-cheesy Ghaleb Emachah, they show him macking on the ladies. He's funny; I hope he sticks around, one of these puffery guys. Sings this totally cheesy version of Everything I Do--it's so over-the-top, but Paula's totally lapping it up. His voice really isn't that good, it becomes a bit painful, Simon finally cuts it off. Paula says not as impressed as the first time around, too much shouting, and too much guitar. Simon calls it incredibly corny, terrible.

I don't understand why Ryan keeps harping on the fact that 55 people didn't make it to the last day, and will have to sing again--these guys aren't good, none of them seemed to deserve a second chance, why do we care?! The ones who were good get to hang out at the hotel.

Day two, 80 more people audition for the first time. Josiah Leming, the breakout star so far, is up next. "I made every mistake a man can make, in the past year; and now it's time to pull it all together and put it towards something good". Wow, he is amazingly good when he sings and plays one of his own songs--this kid should be out recording CDs! He's really, really good--we finally have our Paris Bennett moment this year. The lyrics are interesting, his tone is great, everyone really likes him--the look, the voice, the smile; Paula says he has a magical thing, everyone is grinning. Simon says this is the one he'll remember out of everyone. He's really happy.

Danny Noriega does well too; the two of them are gonna be in the top 12. Ramiele Malubay, who's good too; Carly Smithson, the tatooed girl, is like a pro, powerful but a bit pitchy. Michael Johns is not bad, does the Doors as well. Simon says you should all hate Carly, cause she's very good.

Day two is half done, they show David Cook again, the rocker. Does Bryan Adams as well; but a bit grittier than the Latin guy, I like it, in part because I like the song. He must have been eating candy or something, blue tongue; after a while I do get tired of listening to him, not sure why they're pushing him so much. Simon says he wasn't crazy about it, no guitar and you'll have trouble, he says no but is through anyway. Ryan tries to suck up to him afterwards, Cook says he's jealous of the hair.

Robbie Carrico does another version of same song, I like his better actually; Jessica Brown, ditto; it's generic with her, plus she's pitchy. Perrie Cataldo, for two seconds, Syesha Mercado for two secs, some Colton kid--all forgettable but for Robbie. Syesha's left in tears, I liked her in auditions, she had a dysfunctional dad.

Kyle Ensley next, one of the real surprises, the nerdy politician guy, who's been assigned a room with two girls; I like him, he's fun; they're still playing up the nerd aspect. Sings some totally ridiculous song, it's hokier then heck. I'd cut him right now. Simon says I surrender; Paula says it was fun, good spirit; Simon's like jeez, it was abysmal. The judges are cracking up; Paula is just going on, Simon walks off--he gets a No I guess, never really show it.

Again, Ryan goes on about how it'll be a vicious first cut--there's nobody who didn't make it directly through that I like! Save the airtime, cut them all now, and give us more behind-the-scenes goofing around with the contestants.

48 are through directly; they show 2 seconds of them messing around. Groups of 10 come out to sing a capella for a few seconds. Good luck, it's do or die says Simon. Some chick is hanging out with her voice coach. Oooh, Perrie Cataldo, who I didn't realize was vulnerable--I loved him, the single dad. Suzanne Toon, also a single parent; wow, great, she should never be in danger of cutting. Cataldo next, is great too; a bit showy and cheesy though.

One group stands forward, only two make it out--neither of whom we saw; and both Perrie and Suzanne are cut. It sucks, I liked both of them. It's weird they didn't show us the two good ones, wonder why.

They show a lot of Amy Flynn--abstinence girl--with her older, black female voice coach. It's weird that her coach is with her the whole time, picked the song for her, Amy says she's never heard it before. Not a good idea. Love Will Bring You Back; she sings it well; totally puts her all into it, very loud but powerful, bith pitchy. I like her; and she's one of only two who doesn't make it out of this group. I blame her coach.

They cut everyone in another group; a bunch of people get cut, and some cry. Ryan is being documentary-serious, it's weird--he says 40 have sung, only 4 have made it through. Obviously out of sequence, since Amy's group had 8 make it through.

This part is really starting to drag; I would rather watch winners playing on the beach. More people cut, including one who we already saw crying; hmm, they usually edit pretty well, not so much this year. Serious Ryan talks about being able to hear a pin drop; a bunch of people we've never met are cut, why would we care?

Kayla Hatfield, who was in car accident, Angelica Puente, who lives with her grandparents, are gone. Kristy Lee Cook, backswoods girl, is in danger of going home! Oh no; sings Amazing Grace, again. Oh no, the crazy Jeffrey Lampkin guy is in danger! He's loud, proud, and totally fun; come on big guy, you can make it--his sister was already cut. Totally huge voice, judges are cringing a bit though--a bit too over-the-top I think. Now Ryan is whispering, he's totally ridiculous.

Angela Martin, whose baby has a disability; her dad was killed, before he could come out to join her. My gosh, it's crazy.... My god, if they cut her now! And she's great, so that's good. Oh no--Angela's cut, but Jeffrey at least made it. Glad backswood girl made it; it's horrible about Angela. Jeffrey is still praising Jesus and all. Angela says now I have to move on to something else, I'm very strong.

Ryan is still speaking in hushed tones, he's been floored by the whole thing. Next, the best part of the night, maybe the entire show--when they put them in dysfunctional teams. Hey, we're back from break--did they eliminate this part of the show?! NO WAY! This show is run by idiots! Yeah, get rid of all the personal parts!

They sing with a band, and three background singers; just like the top 24, says Ryan. Well, great, let's have multiple similar rounds, that's brilliant. David Archuleta, who had paralyzed vocal chords; Simon thought he was incredible in the first part of this round--thanks for showing the song! Sings Heaven, what is it with these Bryan Adams things; it's a great choice though, very pure and simple, as he said he wanted to make sure the judges understood it. This year's Kevin Covais, maybe with a little more soul. Randy says at 16 that was the best we've heard in Hollywood; Paula calls him a gem, Simon says you have so much going for him--he's beaming the whole time, nice kid.

Kyle next, again with the cheesy songs from these young guys, but he also has a very nice purity to his voice, Wing Beneath My Wings; Randy says that was actually very good, Paula calls it safe, Simon apologizes for leaving him up there, thought it was good.

Jeffrey Lampkin gets axed, sings A Whole New World, badly; what is it with these people?! Joey Cattalano, the formerly fat kid, just off-key, painful to listen to. Totally off; weird, doesn't seem like the backup singers are doing anything.

Syesha, who Ryan says made it through on the merits of her past performance, even though she's pretty much lost her voice. Mmm, strong, proud performance, can't tell she's been having trouble with her voice; actually uses the backups, powers through the end. I like her. Randy says you're one to watch, could sneak up on people, with your skills; Paula says that was great, rest your voice. Simon says you did it; yeah, people with this kind of drive do well.

Michael Johns, the Aussie; chooses Bohemian Rhapsody, and he's very good; smooth, controlled, sincere. The other contestants are totally into it, a pretty compelling style. Randy liked it, Simon says best of the day.

Suddenly, there are a lot of people who can really sing. I'm still stunned they got rid of the random groups. Their ratings are down compared to last year, deservedly so if this is the best format the suits could come up with.

More on Carly, who I have no interest in, she's allergic to her dog or something. Sings Cher; good song choice, she's very serious and can definitely sing. Bit off-key though; not sure why they're featuring her so much. The backups can be heard on this; they're pretty shrieky though, not sure it's good. Maybe AI wanted to test out how the contestants would do in real-world circumstances. Simon says good song choice, good confidence. She's through.

Asia'h Epperson, who I liked, the one who lost her dad. She has attitude, too. Simon loves it, says she's terrific, brilliant. Brooke Helvey, the beauty queen. Ugh, she's off-key doing Unchained Melody. What is it with all those warhorses? Man, she totally misses the high note, then is like I messed up! Randy says no; Simon weirdly says yes, Paula says she's on the fence, she redoes it, even though they say they don't have time for it; Paula can't decide, Brooke keeps lobbying her, but she's out. I think she should've just shut up, cries and claims she wasn't given a fair chance.

Others we failed are shown crying. Late at night, Josiah is last, apparently got little sleep--ah, explains they got 200 songs to choose from. He's up late previous night, 3:30 a.m. doing runthrough, crying in the hallway, says he feels defeated, the band didn't wanna hear his arrangements. Runs into a vocal coach, who says you screwed up, but come on back later, we'll try again for time #6. He's desperate backstage--less than 2 hours of sleep.

He kicks the band off stage, even though he tips his hat to them. Right choice; he really wants this, and this is the way to do it. Stand by Me--cause I hear it in my head. Man, it's a great version; his own spin on it, so authentic and appropriate. We are looking at the next American Idol--he's slightly touched, wants this amazingly badly, and is creative as heck.

Randy says that was your worse performance, that was not good; hmm, I totally disagree. Paula says bad choice; but you're very talented. Josiah says it took a lot of guts; Simon says now you're being annoying; if you're going to dismiss the band, be certain it's an unbelievable vocal. Simon says you lost a bit of your charm, overconfidence; he starts crying. Randy says based on the past, you're through;
Paula says yes too; Simon says I still think you're a great guy.

He cries afterwards. You either love him, or are becoming annoyed by him. So now they say the judges are gonna decide--but I thought they already said yes or no to everyone?! Man, how many weird repeating layers are there?

They flash back, I really don't understand why there are suddenly so many layers this year. Man, this montage is going on forever; it's not that compelling either. Like a five-minute thing; more random clips. Top 50--cut to the top 24.

They have random clips of judges arguing about contestants, without showing who they're talking about. It's Simon saying no, no a bunch. So they also cut the fun thing where they're in three rooms, and two rooms go on, one not. Sheesh.

One good thing--there are a lot of good guys this year. Either that, or they're purposefully just showing us a lot of them.

Josiah Leming
David Archuleta
Michael Johns
David Hernandez
Asia'h Epperson
Syesha Mercado
Danny Noriega
Brooke White
Robbie Carrico
Kyle Easley
David Cook
Carly Smithson
Ramiele Malubay

Sunday Times

Gleanings from Sunday's Times--as always, half-oblivious.

All Together Now
Shared Song, Communal Memory, Ben Ratliff, in East Lansing, Michigan:

From Hawaii to Santa Cruz to the Philadelphia suburbs, in living rooms, churches and festival tents, similar gatherings — called community sings, or singalongs — draw together the average-voiced and bring old songs into common memory. ...

Much of this impulse descends from Pete Seeger, who has championed the cause of group-singing for more than 60 years. “No one can prove a damn thing,” Mr. Seeger said in a recent interview, “but I think that singing together gives people some kind of a holy feeling. And it can happen whether they’re atheists, or whoever. You feel like, ‘Gee, we’re all together.’ ...

In 1973 Peter Blood, a Quaker, political organizer, teacher and folk musician in Philadelphia, put together a homemade songbook called “Winds of the People,” which quickly took off in the group-sing scene. “There was a demand for it in the circles we ran in, which were religious and summer-camp circles,” said his wife, Annie Patterson. In time Movement for a New Society and other nonreligious activist organizations adopted it for singalong events.

A decade later Mr. Blood and Ms. Patterson were envisioning a more ambitious book. They compiled and cleared the rights to 1,200 songs for “Rise Up Singing,” which was published in 1988. Mark Moss, editor of Sing Out! magazine, the pre-eminent journal of the folk movement, and also the publisher of the songbook, said it has sold about 800,000 copies, at $17.95 each. ...

Perhaps the book’s greatest strength is its tacit proposal that there are many, many songs Americans should know by heart. In 1943, when he was in the Army, Mr. Seeger conducted an experiment on his fellow soldiers, asking them to write down the names of the songs whose words and tunes they really knew. In his own memory file he counted about 300, but he was impressed by the competition.

“I was surprised how many the average person knew back then,” he said. He supposed that the number of songs crossing lines of generation, class and sex would be much lower today, outside of “Over the Rainbow” and “Happy Birthday to You.” ...

“In our little community,” he added, “the economy is horrible, and people are scared and sad. But you go to something like this, and you think, ‘Wow, our community is resilient.’ ”

Margaret Kingsbury, 67, a nurse who is involved with peace groups, sounded a similar note. “I honestly believe that this is one of the ways to create peace,” she said. “You go away from here, and you’re uplifted.”

Ms. Potter isn’t surprised by such reactions. “I think it’s all a result of people needing to come together and find some power somewhere,” she said. “It’s a political need and a spiritual need. How many people left early tonight? It’s a Monday night. They’re tired. But people didn’t leave. That’s how you know.”

Confusing results with reasons
Bollywood Princess, Hollywood Hopeful, Anupama Chopra:

Still, for a variety of reasons, no actor has successfully made the transition from Bollywood to Hollywood.

Schedules and expectations are difficult to match. Bollywood superstars are generally unwilling to play supporting roles in American movies, and there just aren’t many movies coming out of Los Angeles that feature Indians as leads.

Fashion stripped
Clotheshorse Confidential, Liesl Schillinger:

IN “The Meaning of Sunglasses,” her uproarious dictionary of style (or what passes for it), the journalist Hadley Freeman reveals that Condé Nasties aren’t the only ones who jockey for position during Fashion Week: even top designers agonize over their show’s time slot.

“If it’s at, say, 9 a.m., they are generally pretty much down there with Wal-Mart in terms of fashion credibility,” she writes. Ouch. Or as Carine Roitfeld, editor of French Vogue, would say, “Aieee!” ...

Ms. Freeman also dismisses de rigueur nail grooming as “panicure” and reveals two of fashion’s most closely guarded secrets. 1) Why do collections change so drastically, so often? “The public just likes new things.” 2) Why is Anna Wintour the only fashion editor who doesn’t arrive late to the Bryant Park shows? Because she is the only one who doesn’t need to prove her status, “seeing as she is the big kahuna of the whole shebang.”

More like the other Americans, actually
The Other Iran, James Vlahos:

If you’re going to get lost, Esfahan (also spelled Isfahan), a city of 1.3 million about 200 miles south of Tehran in central Iran, is an extraordinary place to do it. There’s a centuries-old saying that Esfahan is “half the world,” meaning it contains fully half of the earth’s wonders.

Jean Chardin, a 17th-century French traveler, wrote that Esfahan “was expressly made for the delights of love”; in the 1930s, the British travel writer Robert Byron rated it “among those rarer places, like Athens or Rome, which are the common refreshment of humanity.” ...

The mullah, Abdullah Dehshan, didn’t shy away from asking meaty questions: Do you think Islam is violent? If you could have one wish for the world what would it be? Do you believe in God? Maybe, I said, but people often get in the way.

Do we need priests, rabbis, mullahs? I asked him. Mullah Dehshan smiled at this theological softball. If you want to go to Shiraz, he said, you would need a car, a road and a map. It is difficult to reach a far-off destination without help. “And so it is with God,” he said. ...

A waiter brought tea, sugar and a qalyan. The smoke was sweet and rich; there was so much in the air that the people across the room were hazy.

The man on my right asked where I was from. “America,” I said.

The room got quieter. Everyone seemed to be looking my way. Then the man clapped my shoulder and smiled.

“Our governments are bad,” he said. “But the people are good.”

We don't need you to clear us
Jennifer Bleyer, For a Book About Peace, a Dose of Trouble :

KAREEM ABDUL-JABBAR, the 7-foot-2 basketball legend, seemed a fitting subject for a children’s coloring book about tolerance in the age of the war on terror. Mr. Abdul-Jabbar is a Muslim, and he has a distinctly Arabic name. With his status as a celebrity athlete, he seemed a perfect illustration of the principle that people defy stereotypes.

“He transcends religion in popular consciousness,” said F. Bowman Hastie III, the author, with Ricardo Cortés, of a new book carrying the provocative title “I Don’t Want to Blow You Up!”

That, at least, was the writers’ thinking. But when Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s representatives learned in October of his forthcoming appearance in the book, they demanded that the authors, who both live in Brooklyn, remove any reference to him.

In an e-mail message, Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s manager, Deborah Morales, declined to comment, beyond saying that her client “does not endorse this book or the unauthorized use of his image.” In response, Mr. Hastie and Mr. Cortés retained a lawyer, who argues that the First Amendment protects the right of artists and writers to depict public figures.

In the 32-page book, which is being released this weekend, simple text and graceful pen-and-ink drawings — not photographs — of 13 subjects, not all of whom are Muslim, are used to introduce young readers to figures like Tariq Ramadan, a Swiss academic and theologian; Omar Ahmad, a former executive with Napster; and Anousheh Ansari, a wealthy Iranian-American who became the first female space tourist. Despite Mr. Abdul-Jabbar’s protests, there he is on page 11, hitting a sky hook. ...

Mr. Cortés, an illustrator and publisher who has worked as an artist-in-residence in city schools, said the idea for the book arose in 2006 when he and Mr. Hastie were discussing how to show children that, as he put it, “the war on terror affects everyone.”

“That’s a kid’s way of talking,” Mr. Cortés said. “ ‘Is that person going to blow up New York? Are they going to blow up the train?’ It’s funny and ridiculous.”

The coloring book is being sold online and at independent bookstores. The two men are also hatching plans for a second installment. The short list of characters who might be included, they said, includes Muhammad Ali, Steve Jobs (who is half Syrian) and, of course, Barack Obama.

Things are rarely as they seem
Brothers in Arms, Adam Ellick and Jigar Mehta:

On this historic Thursday, however, neither the television nor the incessant callers from around the world managed to wake him. The previous day, Mr. Farooqi, the editor and publisher of The Pakistan Post, a free, Queens-based newspaper that reveres Ms. Bhutto, had completed his weekly 34-hour sprint to churn out his 20-page issue.

Among the more persistent callers was Khalil ur Rehman, a journalist who is Mr. Farooqi’s counterpart on the other side of the political fence.

Mr. Khalil, a stout, bearded 55-year-old who lives in Shirley, Long Island, is the editor of The Urdu Times, the city’s other top Pakistani weekly. His publication fervently supports President Pervez Musharraf, the former general who had been Ms. Bhutto’s chief rival since 2002 and who was immediately accused by some members of her party of orchestrating her assassination. He has denied the charge. ...

The contrast between these two men transcends politics and publishing.

Mr. Farooqi is a disheveled, chain-smoking Muslim who boasts of his journalistic exclusives. Mr. Khalil is a dapper, entrepreneurial atheist who enjoys his whiskey and boasts about the lucrative advertisements he garners for his publication.

While their Urdu-language pages exploit the divided political loyalties within New York’s 400,000-member-strong Pakistani community, these two editors are physically divided only by the wall between the unmarked storefronts in which they work, on Hillside Avenue in the Pakistani enclave in Jamaica, Queens.

With parliamentary elections in Pakistan scheduled for Feb. 18, these neighboring storefronts offer a window into Pakistan’s embattled politics. Yet in a nation haunted by 60 years of political turmoil, the situation is never as it appears. Nor is the 17-year relationship between these men, who, despite their differing styles and ideologies, were business partners and are now best friends. ...

“I’m a psych patient today,” he said, lighting a cigarette. “I’m talking, I’m walking, I’m driving, but I have no will to do anything.”

A year ago, on one of Ms. Bhutto’s final visits to New York, Mr. Farooqi had urged her to return home from exile. “I said to her: ‘You keep saying Pakistani people should speak out against the regime. Why should they when you’re in New York with a big car, a driver and kids in Dubai? You have to face the problem.’ ” Now he feels guilt-stricken. ...

“My only skill is journalism,” he said a few days after Ms. Bhutto’s death, taking a break from drafting an editorial. “I can’t do anything else, can’t fix a car. My children always say, ‘Turn off the phone.’ But you know, it’s an addiction. To educate people on what is going on, this is my love, this is my passion, this is my romance, this is what I believe my body desires. It’s my peanut and butter.” ...

Their publications, meanwhile, became local heavyweights, so much so that in 1995, Ms. Bhutto’s party, which was then in power, offered each newspaper $95,000 for a year of positive coverage. At the time, both editors declined the offer and publicized it.

Last May, the two had a full-fledged reconciliation, which they both attribute to “old age.” Now they talk several times a day and are bound by a shared skepticism of many groups within the Pakistani community, which, they contend, do not have local interests at heart. And each man is the other’s favorite companion.

“If I don’t find Mr. Khalil in the evening,” Mr. Farooqi said, plopping a cigarette butt into a stale cup of Dunkin’ Donuts coffee, “I go directly home.”

On another occasion, Mr. Khalil said: “The moment I walk into my home, my wife says, ‘You’re hanging around him?’ I say, ‘How do you know?’ She says, ‘Because you smell like cigarettes.’ ”

“And believe me,” Mr. Farooqi interjected. “When I get drunk, my wife says, ‘You’re with Khalil.’ ” ...

And as these two men ponder an uncertain future, they are haunted by one dispiriting thought: despite 16 years of weekly reports, little if anything has changed in their homeland.

“I’m born in chaos, and I’m now working in chaos, and I have a feeling that when I die, Pakistan will be in the same position,” Mr. Farooqi said. “Since my childhood, I haven’t heard any good news about my country.”

Obama: His own best advocate

Everytime Obama shows up on TV, it's like a free commercial for himself. I defy people to listen to him--without preconceptions--and not like and agree with him.

Not in a shallow, cheap rhetoric way; but in an iceberg way--like in a great novel or movie, everything flows, there's interior logic, everything hangs together.

Exceprts from tonight's 60 Minutes interview, with Steve Kroft:

"I know you'd like to consider yourself the underdog. But by the time we're finished with the next round, it's possible, maybe even likely, that you'll have more delegates than Senator Clinton. Or that you will have won more states. And that you will have raised more money. And have more money on hand. So explain to me how you're an underdog," Kroft asked.

"Well, she continues to have enormous name recognition. I think there's a lot of affection for the Clinton brand among Democrats. And, you know, she still has more institutional support. So, you know, part of what we have to do is, you know, score a convincing knock out. You know, we're like the challenger and she's like the champ. And, you know, you don't win on points," Obama explained.

"I mean, one of the problems that you have, still, is the question of experience. And you've done a lot of remarkable things in your life. But when you sit down and you look at the résumé - there's no executive experience. And, in fact, correct if I'm wrong, the only thing that you've actually run was the Harvard Law Review," Kroft pointed out.

"Well, I've run my Senate office. And I've run this campaign," the senator replied. "One of the interesting things about this experience argument is that it's often posed as just a function of longevity. You know, 'I've been here longer.' Well, you know there are a lot of companies that have been around longer than Google…but Google's performing."

"You have made the case that you have the best chance to defeat John McCain, or another Republican. Why do you feel that way?" Kroft asked.

"There are lot of people out there who say, 'I'm trying to figure out who to vote for, McCain or Obama.' There aren't that many who are saying, 'I'm trying to figure out who to vote for, Clinton or McCain,'" Obama replied.

"And you believe that Senator Clinton would galvanize the Republican base against her?" Kroft asked.

"That's not my belief. I think the polls consistently show that. I mean, she's got problems with independents. And she's got problems with even moderate Republicans. Now the Republicans are come after me. And, you know, I think the argument that she often makes is, 'Oh, the guy's untested. He hasn't been in the battle,'" Obama said.

"You can't stand up to them," Kroft remarked.

"He won't be able to stand up to this withering scrutiny. And, you know, a lot of the things I try to point out is, you know, going up against the Clinton machine is no cake walk. They're pretty serious about winning as well," Obama said.

There's been nastiness already. There probably gonna be more nastiness. Is there a point at which you go to the closet and pull out Clinton's skeletons?" Kroft asked.

"No. We don't play that. Yeah, I mean, one of the rules that I laid down very early in this campaign was that we will be fierce competitors but we will have some ground rules. And one of the ground rules for me is that we battle on policy differences. And that if we draw a contrast between Senator Clinton and myself, then it is based on fact," Obama said. "That we're not gonna fabricate things. We're not gonna try to distort or twist her positions."

"Not only is it offensive to me personally, but I think it's bad politics for me. That's not who I am. That's not what my supporters are looking for," he added.


Asked if he's the same person he was a year ago, Obama told Kroft, "I don't think I've gotten too screwed up through the process, I think. It turns out that even under this kind of stress I've got a pretty even temperament. I don't get too high, I don't get too low."

"I've seen you in the morning. You look, I know you're getting three, four hours sleep," Kroft remarked.

"You know I've held up pretty good," Obama said. "But I've been religious about getting my exercise. You know, so I've been working out every morning. That helps."

"Played a little basketball. We realized that we had played basketball before Iowa and before South Carolina. We didn't play basketball before New Hampshire and Nevada. And so now, we've made a clear rule that on Election Day, I have to play basketball," Obama said.

Asked if he played basketball on Super Tuesday, Obama said, "Absolutely."

Yes.we.can

Just like Obama I'm 3 for 3 on my predictions for tonight (well, actually, he's 4 for 4 including the U.S. Virgin Islands):

-Saturday, 2/9: Washington/Obama (progressive, young, liberal state)

Louisiana/Obama (African-American voters)

Nebraska/Obama (His mom's from Kansas)

I said before I wasn't sure about Maine--but I now am.

Obama's huge margin of victory--68%-32% in Nebraska, 68% to 31% in Washington, likely to be 20%+ in Louisiana by the end of the night--is going to send shock waves through the political world; how can Hillary claim to be the stronger candidate against McCain when she's getting wallopped in states that just a week ago she was leading in--until voters got to hear from the candidates up close?!

I think the Maine caucus-goers will get swept up in the Obama wave; it'll be closer than it's been tonight, but look for Obama to win.

[Earlier...]

Watching the results come in for Lousiania, Nebraska, and Washington. For the latter two states, which hold caucus, the early returns look like an Obama landslide--he's currently winning like 66% to 33%.

If the blog posts on the local papers in Seattle and Omaha, many from caucus-goers, are accurate, I think the final margin will be even greater--the first returns are generally from rural areas while Obama's "strength" tends to be in the big cities.

I think Clinton's done, if she winds up losing states by 70-30 margins. There will be a snowball effect, and with it looking likely that Obama will sweep Maryland/D.C./Virginia Tuesday, the perception will build that Hillary's time has come and gone.

Maine's the only possible roadblock in an Obama seven-state sweep; Clintonites are claiming she's going to win there, and an internal Obama memo even has the state going 51-49 for Clinton.

But I think the results today plus the fact Maine is a caucus will result in an Obama victory. People like to be on the winning side, especially when they can feel good about themselves at the same time.

On a related note, I don't really know anything about Will.i.am, but based on the video he made about Barack Obama he's a really interesting guy. He did it on his own, while watching Obama's speech in New Hampshire.

How great is it that he was inspired by a speech Obama gave after finishing second? That he was watching the speech to begin with? That the Obama campaign had nothing to do with it? That it's gotten something like 10 million views on YouTube in the past week?

I really liked Will.i.am's blog, where he has a lengthy explanation about how he came to create the video. The best part--he doesn't even mention Obama's name in the post!

There are a lot of celebrities in the video; I think even more are going to start jumping on the Obama bandwagon. Usually, I think Hollywood-types are pretty annoying when they start talking about politics--they don't invest enough time in reading and learning and watching to have anything meaningful to add; and as celebs, they're so used to everything being about them, that often the only way they can process politics is in a selfish, childish way (I, I, I).

But, many celebrities are very good at what they do, which often involves words and ideas--reading scripts, writing and singing songs, making art.

And so, when they respond to Obama on that level, they're actually pretty qualified--experts, you might even say.

Here's some of what Will.i.am had to say:

it was that speech...
like many great speeches...
that one moved me...
because words and ideas are powerful...

it inspired me...
it inspired me to look inside myself and outwards towards the world...
it inspired me to want to change myself to better the world...
and take a "leap" towards change...
and hope that others become inspired to do the same...
change themselves..
change their greed...
change their fears...
and if we "change that"
"then hey"..
we got something right...???...

1 week later after the speech settled in me...
I began making this song...
I came up with the idea to turn his speech into a song...
because that speech effected and touched my inner core like nothing in a very long time...

it spoke to me...

because words and ideas are powerful...

I just wanted to add a melody to those words...
I wanted the inspiration that was bubbling inside me to take over...

so i let it..

I wasn't afraid to stand for something...
to stand for "change"...
I wasn't afraid of "fear"...
it was pure inspiration...

so I called my friends...
and they called their friends...
in a matter of 2 days...
We made the song and video...

Usually this process would take months...
a bunch of record company people figuring out strategies and release dates...
interviews...
all that stuff...
but this time i took it in my own hands...
so i called my friends sarah pantera, mike jurkovac, fred goldring, and jesse dylan to help make it happen...
and they called their friends..
and we did it together in 48 hours...
and instead of putting it in the hands of profit we put it in the hands of inspiration...

It's pretty interesting stuff; here's what I wrote about the video when I saw it:

Just look at what's going on with Obama's Yes We Can music video that's just been released--the YouTube clip I watched had 311 views--with 100 comments, 267 favorited, and 385 ratings (4 stars).

I've never seen that before--it's pretty amazing that 1 out of every 3 person who watched it made a comment, and that almost everyone made it a favorite. Maybe almost as startling as seeing long YouTube clips of Obama's speeches hitting a million views.

In further testimony to Obama's YouTube popularity, it cracks me up that famous YouTube clips that have nothing to do with Obama--like Britney Fan Crying, and Laughing Baby--throw Obama's name into their keywords.

The music video's below; it's pretty effective. Watch it back-to-back with his actual South Carolina speech; the brilliant anti-Clinton/1984 Apple ad; and, of course, a couple of the Obama Girl vids.

Idol mix and match

It's the annual audition cities clips show; not sure how they can top Atlanta. They preview Hollywood week very briefly, then get to the auditions. Gosh, I hope they repeat that Brothers guy.

Start with a fatty wearing an odd hat and a giant t-shirt, Simon says everything was slightly mad. Amy Davis, who grew up poor, single mom with 6 kids.... Her grandmother's Japanese, odd question for Paula to ask; she is very attractive though. Voice is decent, Randy likes her possibility as does Simon; makes it through, is very happy.

Tiffany, who's one of those church girls with good voices I'm sure, says God gave her her voice. Hmm... her warmups aren't so good. Oh, oh; could be horrible... she seems like a good country girl though. Sings gospel song; very loud, not sure it's melodic though. I'd say no.... Simon says if he was given that, he'd give it back. Ugh; is shushed by someone in the holding area.

A bunch of people who auditioned together. They play up a 'love triangle', two twins--the same girlfriend they say. Sheesh. The chick is totally crazy. To the theme of Three's Company. I think they're both jerks; they do some crazy rap thing; the beat box isn't so bad, kindof interesting; the rapping one forgets his lyrics and is lame. Simon calls it amateurish; nope.

So then the nutty girl goes in with her puppy, who Simon likes, he says he's gonna steal the dog, she says as long as you put me through you can have whatever you want. Jeez, she's bad. The twins outside are saying how she's not good, despite what she thinks. Simon says it was excruciating, she's got this mock outrage thing going on, thinks he's lying. She asks if today's Opposite Dog. He says you're always gonna get your way in life though. Randy says the dog is through to Hollywood.

Some chick who says she's really confident, Carmen Lee McKinney. Hmm, she seems could be bad or good; voice isn't bad though, if a bit loud. Simon says you're too theatrical. Paula says you can sing, mature voice; Randy says yes after some thought; Simon says no, Paula says yes. Hmm, she's actually not arrogant afterwards.

So far this show isn't that good. Plus-size model chick, she's simply fat. But has a nice vibe, good attitude. Joanne Borgella; has an interesting voice, pretty controlled and sincere; definitely big. I like her tone. Paula calls her stunning, loves her tone; Randy says you can sing; Simon just says no.

Alesha Stelzl from Cali, just one of those fake-looking clueless people; gosh, it's an ordeal listening to her, about the most painful ever. She takes lessons, Simons asks by whom? Randy says you should sing a Dolly Parton song. Simon says go learn one, come back. Ryan's goofing around with her mom outside, they go looking for a Dolly song.

Back from break, she learns Islands in the Stream (off a YouTube clip). She is good-natured. It's actually a decent likeness, but she can't sing; not really letting go, kind of between gritted teeth. Paula really like the tone of her voice; and says yes! Randy does too, says it's very sweet, pure tone. Wow--there's always one totally crazy thing every year. Simon says I hate to admit it, but you're right, she does sound like DP, Paula and Randy celebrate. And I like Alesha a lot more than I thought I did based on the way she came across initially.

Some nutty chick does some embarassing strip teaseish thing; some guy sings a song with a bunch of swear words; some guy who says "my aka is". He's nutso beforehand; dumps glitter on the floor. But his tone is interesting, if totally over-the-top. Ugh, he goes nuts on the high notes; it winds up bad. Simon calls it revolting and corny. Randy says you have a voice, but you're not ready yet. They get Ryan in there to help sweep up the glitter. Simon jumps in to help the chick sweeping up, but doesn't know how to use the broom/dustpan.

Clips of Simon not getting people's names; sure, he comes from a country where it's all Tom/Dick/Harry. May be dyslexic as well. Paula says it's his favorite thing that he does. Chikezie Eze is back, Paula totally remembers him from last year. Hey, he can sing, I like him and his voice. Powers through Simon asking him to stop. Simon thinks he's interesting, not his voice. Paula likes him; Randy is indecisive--they cut to Ryan and his parents outside, they seem cool; out he comes with the golden ticket. He's emotional, I like him.

Danny Noriega, last for the night, a pretty-looking boy who if he grew his hair out would be a totally cute chick; he apparently battled nerves last time. Singing Proud Mary, Randy laughs and says of course; he's very into acting out the song, it's hard to take him seriously but he has a good voice, and obviously is into the song. It's pretty good. Simon says he has a really good voice, Randy loved it; Paula likes his unexpected voice.

Thye look back at the seven cities; quick clips of the notable moments. Now that I think about it, there have been a lot of interesting people this year; not so much amazing voices, as life stories.

Ah, Hollywood round; maybe my favorite part of the show. 164 made it; they show past year moments--some new twists, like some of them play instruments.

Joanne Borgella, plus-size model
Danny Noriega, nervous guy
Chikezie Eze, is back
Amy Davis, 1/4 Japanese
Carmen Lee McKinney, theatrical
Alesha Stelzl, Dolly Parton

Looking for gold in the ATL

Watching this a day after it aired on Super Tuesday; they're in Atlanta, last stop on the audition tour--and Ryan's home town. His folks show up, his dad seems like a game show host.

Josh Jones first, works at a glass company. Seems like he'll be good; nice vibe, and speaking voice. He's really into glass, good-natured. A bit cheesy, and pitchy; but pretty controlled. Simon tells him to end the crazy eyes thing. He can't, they wind up telling him to sing with his back to them; he's not that swift. Gets super-cheesy after a while, Simon calls it karaoke, Paula says yes, as does Randy.

Some dorky guy, moaning after missing his shot with Carrie Underwood. He claims people tell him he's got star quality. Is unintelligible, and very bad. He says he really wants this, doesn't wanna go to school. Majoring in singing no less; Simon says his pen has more charisma.

They run clips of Paula, claiming she just can't say no--which is totally untrue, she's generally pretty spot-in; I feel like Randy wavers a lot more. Simon keeps asking her yes or no, it's annoying. At some point she asks if it's legal to strangle a Brit.

Asia'h Epperson, who seems pretty down to earth, her dad died a couple of days ago right after she talked to him. What is she doing here?! Good smile, as Simon says; decides to sing something for her dad. How Do I Live; wow, a great tone, bit breathy but very strong, and obviously passionate. I can totally see her doing wells, except for the breathing. Simon likes her, she's crying at the end. Paula says she's very brave to do this, Randy says excellent. Big, long hug with her friend afterwards; Paula's crying, Simon and Randy comfort her, she goes off to compose herself.

Some chick in line, wearing a crown, some sort of beauty queen. She's attractive, but in a plastic way. Keeps talking about prayer and god; she's actually a little too done up to be attractive I think. Brooke Helvie; hey, she can actually sing, has a pretty interesting voice. Big but also not just loud. They put her through, Randy says you have a good pop voice; she actually asks him if he likes her a lot lot. She hugs Simon, then Paula, then Randy, loves them all. She looks a lot like her mom; dad is just doting. Simon says maybe the most annoying person he's ever seen.

Montage of ridiculously bad people, rapping to some song. Ugh. Back from break, some clips of people with attitude. Some deluded chick, who says she loves to entertain, and loves Simon. Just arrogant, and dumb. Likely tone deaf too; slips on her audition paper,falls on the ground. Sings like an on/off pitch has been hit. Simon asks her if this is a joke; she thinks he's talking about falling. Simon wants her to look him in the eyes, tell him it was a serious audition. She starts crying; they back pedal. He hugs her anyway.... She leaves angry.

Alexandrea Lushinton brings her great grandmother, 93, who seems to be in good shape. I like her, she's very cute, elbows Ryan in a joking way. Whoah, and Alexandrea can sing, only 16; Randy says he was really impressed. Her family is loud and proud, I like them a lot, actually. Wow, she might be my fave of the audition round so far....

They flash back to Season 2 and Clay showing up here; everyone looks so weird. A bunch of guys who can't sing but look dumb. Some guy with orange hair is strangely hypnotic, actually; as is some guy in a kilt. Then some ridiculous high-pitched, operaish guy, but again, pretty interesting to listen to.

Some jerk kid, who's repeating 9th grade. Picks some crazy song, he's not horrible actually--but just not right for this thing, and stops singing abruptly. Simon asks him if wants to listen or be a smart ass; he chooses to listen. The kid then does this drawn-out pretend thing, Simon says how about not funny, can't sing, mouthing off the whole way. His parents apologetically say he's a little lippy.

Hmm, an interesting-looking rocker who's a nurse; and rides a Harley or something. Amanda Overmyer. has a very interesting singing voice; sounds and even looks a bit like Jodi Foster. I like her, actually; says it depends on whether they dig it or not. Chooses Janis Joplin, very believable. Not exactly pleasantly to listen to, a bit too screaming. Simon stops her, says sing something else, less of a put on. Paula says she loves her, so does Randy--a trillion percent yes, I love this girl, I believe it. Simon too... Her folks seem like nice people.

It's wrapping up; a lot of people I really like here. Quick montage of a bunch of people who made it, including some funny fat guy. Last guy--wow, who's been living in his car, for like a year. He says he loves it; lots of pillows, says his family doesn't know. He says it's scary and it's lonely, cause you don't have anybody, then starts crying. Wow, I really like him--he says it's the biggest day of his life so far, he comes from nothing, and to be handed an opportunity like this.... Josiah Leming, says to the judges he has more ambition and motivation than any other 18-year-old. Wrote his song, To Run; it's actually pretty good as a song, and his voice is perfect for it, so genuine. You sound English when you sing, Simon says; he says he's listened to a lot of British songs. Sings another song at Simon's request, all say it's weird the accent. Paula likes him, Randy says maybe a band, usually don't like people from Tennessee singing with a British accent, Paula says I think you're holding back, a lot of personality. Randy says yes, Paula of course, Simon too; he's emotionl; Simon calls him Joshua again. Nobody to show his golden ticket to but Ryan and the other contestants.

20 in all out of Atlanta, really I don't remember another show where I saw so many people I really liked. Ah, what a great show this is when it all works....

More than 100,000 auditioned this year, Ryan says. Glad they found the likes of Josiah, Alexandrea, Asia'h....

Josiah Leming, living in car
Alexandrea Lushinton, great-grandmother
Asia'h Epperson, whose dad died
Amanda Overmyer, rocker nurse
Brooke Helvie, beauty queen
Josh Jones, crazy eyes

Watching Super Tuesday

Scoreboard at this point, as I call it a night on Super Tuesday/Wednesday:

-13 states, Sen. Barack Obama
- 8 states, Sen. Hillary Clinton

I think given that the Democrats are going to win New York and California in a general election, it's pretty significant that Obama's won all the Midwest states over Hillary tonight, the states that are going to be battlegrounds.

The late victory in Missouri is especially imporant, given how far back he was just a week ago and how much of a bellweather state Missouri has been in presidential elections.

Hillary missed her last best chance to stop the Obama tide. Obama may still come out of the night with more delegates than Clinton, which would make it a clear win for him.

Especially given it's nothing but downhill for Clinton from here on out, given the states left and Obama's fundraising and organizational advantage.

Actual results, vs. my predictions--I only missed on two states, Massachusetts and Missouri, both of which I

In order of definitiveness, I think Obama will win:
Yes-Illinois
Yes-Alaska
Yes-Colorado
Yes-Kansas
Yes-Minnesota
Yes-Georgia for sure

I think Obama will win a lot of states that are currently either tied, or leaning Clinton:
Yes-Connecticut (late endorsements will help)
Yes-Alabama (African Americans)
Yes-Idaho (see below)
No-Massachusetts (Clinton's had a big lead, but I think Kennedy endorsement will be enough).

I have no opinion on
Obama-Delaware
-New Mexico
Obama-North Dakota
Obama-Utah--haven't seen any data, not sure which way they'll go.


I think Clinton will win:
Yes-New York (home state)
Yes-New Jersey (near-home state)
Yes-Arkansas (home state),
Yes-Tennessee (big lead in polls) for sure.


I think Clinton will win
Yes-Arizona (older voters, Latinos)
Obama-Missouri (it's a weird state, she's been up in all the polls)
Yes-Oklahoma (no diversity).

I'm also not sure about
Clinton-California, which is obviously the most important Super Tuesday contest; you could argue the winner of this primary is the front-runner the rest of the way.

Webwatch: Sports Illustrated goes to sleep

It's the night before the Super Bowl, and what does Sports Illustrated have leading its site?

The Redskins getting two players in the Hall of Fame.

Must be the interns running the site tonight.

Clinton's last stand against Obama

I think unless Hillary Clinton blows out Barack Obama in Super Tuesday's delegate race, Obama will have a clear path to the Democratic nomination.

With 22 states voting Tuesday, there are a bunch of voters who will be casting their ballots without any real exposure to the candidates; in such cases, name recognition--and plain old inertia--will help Clinton a lot.

In order of definitiveness, I think Obama will win Illinois, Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota and Georgia for sure--the Times reports Clinton's not even advertising in any of these states.

I think Clinton will win New York (home state), New Jersey (near-home state), Arkansas (home state), and Tennessee (big lead in polls) for sure.

I think Obama will win a lot of states that are currently either tied, or leaning Clinton: Connecticut (late endorsements will help), Alabama (African Americans), Idaho (see below), Kansas (mom's home state plus governor's endorsement), and Massachusetts (Clinton's had a big lead, but I think Kennedy endorsement will be enough).

I think Clinton will win Arizona (older voters, Latinos), Missouri (it's a weird state, she's been up in all the polls), and Oklahoma (no diversity).

I have no opinion on Delaware, New Mexico, North Dakota, or Utah--haven't seen any data, not sure which way they'll go.

I'm also not sure about California, which is obviously the most important Super Tuesday contest; you could argue the winner of this primary is the front-runner the rest of the way.

The L.A. Times endorsement and Oprah will help Obama, but Clinton had a big lead, and the Latino voters of course. It all depends on what happens the next few days; I think it'll be that close.

But after Tuesday, the electoral calendar opens up. Contests are well-spaced, with plenty of time for the candidates to concentrate on states and for voters to really listen to Obama and Clinton.

Here's the first part of the calendar, and my predictions (I'm struck at how Obama-friendly this list is):

-Saturday, 2/9: Washington/Obama (progressive, young, liberal state), Louisiana/Obama (African-American voters), Nebraska/Obama (His mom's from Kansas)

-Sunday, 2/10: Maine/No opinion

-Tuesday, 2/12: DC/Obama, Virginia/Obama, Maryland/Obama (African-American vote, progressive young voters)

-Tuesday, 2/19: Wisconsin/Obama (progressive young voters), Hawaii (home state)

After that, there's two weeks (!) until Texas and Ohio vote (along with Rhode Island and Vermont).

You give Obama two full weeks to concentrate on a state, and you get a 20% margin of victory like in South Carolina.

Hillary's only hope is some sort of momentum post-Super Tuesday, adn the Latino-vote thing. On the latter, it's a weird for her camp to hang its strategy on--it's not like there's any strong reason for Latino's to support the Clintons. It's more a level of discomfort with an African-American politician, but that's something which is likely to dissipate with time and exposure.

I think the calendar and the dwindling Latino thing is what all the veteran politicians, editorial boards, and unions who have started to endorse Obama are looking at.

Politicians and journalists and union leaders are people too; so it could just be everyone's seeing the merits of Obama's message, tapping into the mix of intellect and emotion that the giant crowds at all his events feel.

But these professional operatives didn't get where they are just by riding emotion. They're taking a cold, hard look at the remaining states, and realizing that if Clinton doesn't knock him out Tuesday, the rest of the race plays to Obama's strengths.

Who knows--maybe Obama will even win a majority of delegates on Tuesday, even without the giants of NY/NJ/CA. In which case it'll definitely be curtains for Clinton.

Check out the coverage today from Obama's trip to Idaho, Barack Obama wows, inspires crowd at Taco Bell Arena

Even Barack Obama was surprised by the Idaho crowd.

“They told me there weren’t any Democrats in Idaho — that’s what they told me,” he said. “But I didn’t believe them.”

About 13,000 Idahoans crammed Taco Bell Arena to see and hear the Democratic presidential candidate this morning — and organizers said many more people were turned away at the door.

“I can’t believe it — can you believe it?” Obama said. “It’s unbelievable. … What a remarkable crowd.” ...

Marsha Meredith, who recently moved to Idaho from California, was visibly moved.

"There are tears in my eyes," she said. "I've been waiting so many years for this. I haven't been involved in politics before, but everything he said about teachers, about schools, about the economy — look at me, I'm crying."

Earlier, former Gov. Cecil Andrus introduced “the man I think should be and will be the next president of the United States.”

“I’ve been around a long time and I’ve seen a lot of political candidates come and go,” Andrus said. But he said that not since John F. Kennedy had he seen someone with the ability to “bring together, to excite and to inspire the people of America like Barack Obama."

"He is the custodian of the hope and the dream of millions and millions of Americans.”

Really, his campaign just needs to buy air time to run clips from his speeches....

Just look at what's going on with Obama's Yes We Can music video that's just been released--the YouTube clip I watched had 311 views--with 100 comments, 267 favorited, and 385 ratings (4 stars).

I've never seen that before--it's pretty amazing that 1 out of every 3 person who watched it made a comment, and that almost everyone made it a favorite. Maybe almost as startling as seeing long YouTube clips of Obama's speeches hitting a million views.

In further testimony to Obama's YouTube popularity, it cracks me up that famous YouTube clips that have nothing to do with Obama--like Britney Fan Crying, and Laughing Baby--throw Obama's name into their keywords.

The music video's below; it's pretty effective. Watch it back-to-back with his actual South Carolina speech; the brilliant anti-Clinton/1984 Apple ad; and, of course, a couple of the Obama Girl vids.