Hello? Monica who?

Hillary Clinton's nutty 3 a.m. phone call ad ("It’s 3am and your children are safe and asleep, but there’s a phone in the White House and it’s ringing") drew a response from the Obama campaign that is about the best balance of effective strength and humor you'll ever see.

It's an absolutely devastating response, captured by MSNBC's blog post, Danzig: Call Clinton at 3 a.m. March 5:

From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
On a conference call to respond to the "3 am" ad that the Clinton campaign went on air with today, former Secretary of the Navy Richard Danzig, an Obama supporter, gave a terse response when asked if Clinton should drop out after March 4th.

"I would encourage you on March 5th to call Sen. Clinton at 3 a.m. and ask that question," Danzig said.

A morning (and early afternoon) of dueling conference calls and spin started with Obama campaign manager David Plouffe dismissing the Clinton ad. Since that mid-morning call, both Obama and three of his national co-chairs have responded.

Stressing that Clinton failed in her own "red-phone moment," Sen. Dick Durbin today referred to 12:50 a.m. on October 2002 when Congress voted to authorize President Bush to go to war. Durbin called that night a "red-phone moment" and said that 77 senators, including Clinton and McCain failed exercise the right judgment.

Gen. Tony McPeak (Ret.), the former Air Force chief of staff, told reporters that if they want to see who can handle the phone call at 3 a.m., they should examine the leadership the candidates have exercised over the course of this campaign.

"A campaign is a lot like a war in many respects," McPeak said. "If you want to know what kind of commander in chief Senator Obama would be why don't you look at the kind of campaigns that have been run?"

"Are you firing people? Are you loaning yourself money?" he continued.

He also argued that it wasn' t just judgment that was important at 3 a.m., but also temperment. Danzig also responded strongly, saying this type of ad feeds a wrong impression of what it takes to be president and argued that Obama had better judgment and leadership skills than the New York senator.

American Idol cuts to 16

The "eliminations are inevitable, the drama is real" Ryan tells us. Hmmm, sounds a lot like another hard-fought contest.

Four "very brave" contestants are leaving, after 31 million votes were supposedly cast. There's all sorts of chatter, that I'm not paying much attention to; there's some sort of aimless discussion about Simon's hand gestures last night.

Group sing, 70s songs. David Cook's apparently the kind of guy who wears a tuxedo shirt; there are all sorts of other weird outfits; then Kristy Lee and Carly do a great back and forth on It's a Heartache, they should have some sort of challenge like this between two contestants.

Back, and Ryan gets right to it, showing highlights from the guys. Cook afterwards says he felt bad, like he offended Simon, and didn't mean to. A good guy for sure. The clips are pretty disjoined, usually the show has excellent editing, but not here. David Archuletta sounds better on replay than I remember it 'liveBa'.

He has the whole back row stand up, then Michael and Chikezie get to sit down; Castro too, after he messes with him; Danny Noriega looks sick, but it's Jason Yaeger who's gone, of course. Then, afterwards, it looks like Noriega has wiped the whole thing from his mind; ah, the callowness of some youths.

Ryan keeps asking Yaeger questions, he comes across pretty well. As Simon what Yaeger should do, Simon says you need charisma, personality, stage presence, cause you're not a bad singer. He's a good sport. He's a lot better than he was Tuesday, just loose and having a good time, dancing like a fool too.

Syesha looks a lot better on replay; Amanda is more of a mess. They try to paint Alaina as having had a good performance, odd; Alexandrea, too. Back row; Kristy sits, Asia'h obviously, it'll be down to Alexandrea and Amanda, they're next to each other. And indeed does come down to them, Alexandrea is gone.

Randy says not the right choice, just the wrong song at the wrong time. Paula says the beginning of your career, Alexandrea pulls away from Ryan tugging on her arm. He brings up her grandmother, she goes, you were supposed to bring her to California, freak! It's a funny moment; these kids today.... The loved ones are all up in the area overlooking the stage, her folks are right there are she's singing. Ah, little Archuletta is crying. Ramiele seems to have it more together this week. She goes over and hugs Archuletta right afterwards, it's sweet; he's looking a bit sheepish.

Ryan promised some big news about Idol earlier, wonder what it'll be. Hmmm, keeps the chicks up there, wonder if that means there'll be a surprise with the guys. Front row, Carly sits, Ramiele next, Syesha is safe as well, leaving Kady and Alaina... They go up, holding hands, they could be sisters. Kady is safe, but is called first, and she looks ready to leave--but instead it's Alaina, Ramiele is crying, it's a bit of a surprise, Alaina is pretty stunned. Alaina is totally crying, she says I can sing! Ouch. Her peeps look unhappy.

Odd, I thought it was pretty obvious that she was in over her head. Her peeps are really unhappy while Paula's trying to give her a pep talk. Danny is crying, Ryan gives her to option to sing or not, she says it's going to sing horrible, the other women come down to help her. Noriega is still crying. She's actually not bad, singing; a real trooper. Man, her mom and whomever are really being rude, just standing there glaring. Big group hug afterwards.

March 11, Ryan says, singing for the first time--new set, graphics, Ruben, and... Beatles songs! April 9th is Idol gives back, they show the 'highlights' from last year's episode. Then, another commercial break.

Hmm, Brad Pitt and Miley Cyrus, Mariah Carey and Snoop Dogg... all are going to be part of the show, says Ryan. Front row up, Luke and Robbie, they don't waste any time. Ah, Ryan screws up, ready to send someone home before reading Robbie's bad comments; and it is indeed him.

So after two weeks I'm 7 for 8 on predicting who's in, who's out. And my one wrong prediction, from the first week, was for Alexandrea to leave.

At this point I look forward to hearing Archuletta, Chikezie, sometimes Danny Hernandez sing among the guys; Brooke, Kady and Syesha for the women. It's definitely better than last year; not as good as the year before that, at least not yet.

Robbie, by the way, is just horrible singing us out.

American Idol's top 10 women

Ryan claims the guys put on an awesome show last night, then the 'ladies' parade across the screen. Simon and Paula are giving each other the eye; it's interesting, Simon's getting a lot more cheering and squealing this year.

Randy claims the guys were on fire, Paula says they surprised us; uh, okay. Carly Smithson starts first, says we would be surprised that she works at an Irish bar. Uh, really? Shaking and bouncing in a black outfit, fierce look, belting out Crazy on You. Not crazy about the song, the whole thing is just eh to me, although she can definitely sing. Randy says good towards the end, beginning was rough, pitch problems, oversing--she's fighting to keep a smile on her face; Paula says not bad, Carly goes on about how much she likes the song; Simon says better than last week, points out that she's totally out of breath, still haven't connected--you are an incredible singer, none of the girls can touch you vocally, but you haven't had your moment yet, in the end though I think you're the one they've all got to beat. She blabs on about how happy she is she got to sing the song--she really doesn't get it, this show isn't about ego gratification.

Syesha Mercado, who says she's done a lot of commercials; she has funny facial expressions. Mimics a baby crying, for some reason. In black with a big scarfish thing around her hair; song is waaaaay too low-energy, like a finesse song. Middle is better, Mr. Jones or something; I think it'd be better if she was singing this later, once she's established her persona, the whole thing is kind of nebulous, except for the refrain. Randy says not a great song choice, show off your big voice more, goes nowhere when it's too soft; Paula says you're off-pitch when you go soft, nice try though; Simon says a bit indulgent, kind of silly to sing a song not written for a girl, audience boos him big time, says he was put off when she started it.

Brooke White thinks we'd be surprised by the fact that she went to beauty school, she likes wondering what she can do with people's hair. Ooooh, like it; playing the guitar, in orange, perfect song choice for her husky voice with good tone, You're So Vain. The totally perfect song, it just flows, she's just strong enough, with irony and color in her voice, cracks just right. The look is perfect, too. My favorite female performance this year, maybe. Randy loves the song choice, not sure it was unique, was this song about someone up here?! Paula says perfect song, suits you, liked her familiarity; Simon says he absolutely loved it, totally perfect song, the artist genuinely chose the song, totally connected, not old-fashioned, this is why you're here. She's very nice, keeps saying thank you, and thanks the band, too. I'm telling you, possible darkhorse, if she can keep her confidence together....

Ramiele Malubay next, in a fun purpleish top, Ryan tries to speak Spanish with her, she's like oh my god as the audience laughs. Says she was really sad, her friends were cut last time. She used to Polynsesian dance as a kid; mmm, don't think people are too surprised. She was really cute as a kid, now is a bit too made up. Hmm, good voice, it's hushed to start, a bit compelling; not sure about the song, Don't Leave Me This Way. It speeds up a bit, yeah, it's just not speaking to me; odd choice, I think. It's fun on the refrain, but the rest of it is just okay, her voice sounds a bit swallowed up too; performance is pretty repetitive too. Randy is like the boys liked it, it was just okay, a little rough, bad song choice; she seems so sad, Paula says your vocals are truly amazing, you powered through but the song is too much the same; she looks anxious as Simon says astonishingly he agrees with Paula, thought you were much better last week, I think you're one of the top three best singers in the whole thing, just not one of your best. She says afterwards she changed it four times, didn't want to do a slow song, afraid of being called Lullaby instead of Malubay. Yo--don't read the message boards!

Kristy Lee Cook next, I like the sideways look she gives the camera as we go to break. Says people would be surprised that she's a tomboy. Uh, nobody's surprised by that.... In cool silver top, black pants; lots of attitude, very bouncy, a bit too aware of the camera--You're No Good. Stands like she's riding a horse again; I think the problem with her is her voice just isn't that great, so performance has to really carry her. She looks a bit timid singing, even, like the attitude has to be pushed out. Plus her tongue's really red for some reason. Not bad, in the sense I enjoyed it, but nothing wow either. Randy says much better than last week, no breakout moments but pretty in-tune; Paula says you're back, good choice; Simon says big improvement, but not sure what you are yet, the country route might be it, you have real potential.

Amanda Overmyer next, says she's a bookworm, likes reading bios of rock icons. She and David Cook should meet up. In her usual tough girl black; good energy coming out, weird dance moves, but authentic song choice, Carry on My Wayward Son. Seems to be a bit ahead of the music, and her voice seems off-key. Totally hate the dancing stuff, more writhing than anything else. Kind of a mess, no cohesion, and song isn't that great. Just kindof of painful. Randy says not the right song choice, too many instrumental breaks, too much melody for a bluesy girl, very pitchy; Paula claims she can dance, ha! Her parents kind of have a whatever look on their faces, odd. Not the right song; Simon says you were natural in the video, everything on stage felt contrived, including crazy hair, indulgent choice, ugly song, didn't get it. Paul says you're better without all the crazy makeup and stuff.

Alaina Whitaker, who I really don't remember--my gosh there are a lot of white girls (and guys) this year. Says she doesn't like the food on her plate to touch each. Okay... shows her eating bad Chinese food, says she used to use a different fork for each food. In formalish blue gown; gosh, this is a mistake, look is too old, and her song choice is bad, too slow and soft, and she's oversinging to make an impression; Hopelessly Devoted to You. It's painful to listen to, actually, she's almost shrieking to hit the high notes. This might be it for her. Randy says he likes the song, but bad choice, very pitchy, you overshot stuff, not my fave; Paula asks if she loves the song, she says yeah... Paula says good job, not as bad as Randy thinks; Simon says he likes her, but it's almost like your grandmother prepared you for this audition, all very old-fashioned. On a positive note, you're a dark horse, gotta become relevant. Nah, I disagree, there's no there there. Simon is giving Ryan the business again over being gayish, Ryan really doesn't like it, just hits back at him per usual.

Alexandrea Lushington says she was a poster child for the Atlanta fire department, talks about singing at Ground Zero impromptu. In hoodieish; oh, her voice gets swallowed from the get-go, sign of a bad song choice. This is not good, seems weak, trying to push it, If You Leave Me Now. This is bad, she's going to be out after this. Just no energy at all, she's off-key, it's the worst female song we've seen this year. She knows it too, looks defeated afterwards, Randy asks what do you think, she says it's over.... Randy says you've got great skills, but a safe choice, boring; Paula says still not bad, your own version; Simon says I was a big fan of yours, you're struggling, bad song choice, you weren inconsistent, looked uncomfortable. I like her afterwards talking to Ryan, she's a cool person. Hope she doesn't go.

Kady Milloy, says she's been singing opera since she was a kid; I really like her, hope she gets it together; has a great voice, singing opera in the bathroom. She does an impression of Simon that's pretty funny. In black sundress, great outfit; stumbles a bit coming down the stairs. Totally the wrong song for her, voice is totally swallowed up. A bit more personality coming out at least. Wow, Magic Man--interesting choice; not crazy about it cause it's not melodic, a bit all over the place. But man, she's a great performer, attitude and all. Wish she'd just sing! The song is almost more spoken than anything. Randy asks if she loves it, she does, he says some interesting song choices, never quite on pitch; Paula says great when you powered, but low notes were off, you have many hidden talents, you need to find yourself; Simon says we're all frustrated because on film you're great, opera too, actual performance is bad, didn't go anywhere. She shrugs it off, I had fun.

Asia'h Epperson says she was a cheerleader, loved it; I'm mixed on her, see what happens tonight. Wow, compelling start, in white, slow and powerful, All By Myself. A good song choice, weird spin on the refrain--starts low, second word cuts high; it's passionate, but hard to get other versions out of your head. She's building steam, has a HUGE voice. Still feel like she's always flat, but man, she can sing. Randy says we know you've been sick, hard song to sing, but you were good; Paula's excited that she pulled it off; Simon says you didn't pull it off, not good enough of a singer, close but no cigar, you're not that good, shouldn't have attempted it. Shows you up, a silly decision. Know your limitations, Simon says to Ryan, like you have in your career. It's true, Ryan doesn't try to be more than he is.

I guess I'm predicting Alaina and Alexandrea.... Not a bad night, but I'm still waiting for someone to make me rewind the tape and watch their song again.

Brooke White
Kristy Lee Cook
Asia'h Epperson
Kady Milloy
Ramiele Malubay
Syesha Mercado
Carly Smithson
Amanda Overmyer
Alaina Whitaker
Alexandrea Lushington

Top ten guys go on Idol

The ten guys come walking out on 70s night, with David Archuletta getting a huge squeal at the end. Randy wants them to do better than last week, Paula thinks they'll be less nervous, Simon wants to be better.

Michael Johns claims he's a bit of a jock, says he played tennis tournaments and did really well; nice modesty there, mate. In orange t-shirt, jeans; weird song choice, voice is thin doing Go Your Own Way. Odd; good confidence I guess, but I don't really feel like he's even in tune, a bit like he's mailing it in. Good performance though. Randy says not your best, never really let go; Paula says good job, you're already there; Simon says it was okay, your weakest of the whole thing, you're coasting; Paula claims from a woman's point of view it was good. He says his dream has been to sing a Fleetwood Mac song; hey, this show is all about indulging yourself, right?

Jason Castro next, soft white/gray shirt. Says he hates doing interviews, they show all the outtakes, it's funny; I just like to sing, everything related to music, not so jazzed about the non-music parts of Idol. Plays his guitar, he's not bad; it's slightly compelling, has a good voice; not crazy about the song choice, I Just Want to Be Your Everything. I enjoy it though, because I like him, and it's all about the singing, he's not playing to the camera or anything. Randy says with the guitar you're good, but the vocals were just average; Paula says nah, clever choice but I wanna see you without the guitar, more vulnerable as an artist; Simon says the song was horrible and schmaltzy, vocals were weak, it didn't all fit as well as last week, looked uncomfortable, choice was average.

Luke Menard, who says he's part of an acapella group; they're really good together, actually, based on the clip. I have no feel for him, curious to see what he's like; very dramatic start, gray shirt, jeans; singing Killer Queen, which I've never heard before. It's--weird; he totally seems comfortable and at home with it, it just doesn't connect with me, the song's not very melodic. Good energy and all, but if you don't like the song, that's all secondary. Randy says that was a difficult song, this is more you than last week, theatrical and all, not bad even with pitch problems; Paula says it was great for you, vocally very strong; Simon says it was a mistake, you don't have the charisma and personality to pull it off, almost whiny. Paula is really lobbying to keep 'Dawson's Creek', as Ryan puts it, around.

Robbie Carrico up next, Ryan asks him about how are you gonna be authentic, he says there are many types of rock, I am who I am. Whoah, he drags race; he really is just a good ole boy. Up in white open collared shirt, black pants; his voice is off-key, but his performance from the get-go is energetic, he's really going after it; doing Hot Blooded. Actually the energy level doesn't really last, feels a bit like he's going through the motions, the audience isn't really connecting. Not great. Randy is laughing, says not sure if the rock thing is really you, not enough grit to your voice, never wowed, just okay; Paula says you're the only one who knows who you are, you played it a bit safe, you lost some of your personality; Randy jumps back in, rock is an attitude, you shouldn't have to prove it; Paula says up the ante; Simon says don't get so defensive, it's only an opinion, actually thought the vocal was okay tonight.

The controversial Danny Noriega is next, he's one of the only guys with a chance to break through to greater public consciousness (probably not in a good way in his case, either). He says he used to be in a punk rock band, totally looks like a chick in the photos. My god; he's like become a caricature, out in an argyle, singing some torch song; does have a decent voice, but it's just hard to take it seriously. Don't You Remember You Told Me You Love Me Baby, I almost feel like he's got something wrong with his voice, the way he swallows words. The whole thing is just ridiculous, the audience seems to like it but again, I don't like the song, don't like him, not winning me over. Randy says there were some problems with the vocal, too slow, too calculating, just let it go; Paula says he has amazing vocal skill, don't overthink it, just perform; Simon says this was better, not fantastic, but overconcentrating; I do like that you stand out, and look terrific on camera. Definitely seems less like a jerk and more like a kid compared to last week; still really likes himself, especially his hair, though.

David Hernandez next, says he was a gymnast as a kid. Out in black hoodie and jeans; is totally into the performance from the get-go, he's fun to watch; voice isn't bad, either. A bit too non-rough to pull Papa Was a Rolling Song off, but he's really giving it his all. Man, this would be a great song for someone with some real charisma to do. His ending is really good, though. By default, my fave so far of a weak night. Randy says that was great, Paula says a very pure, good voice--actually, I like his smile the best; personality came out, perfect; Simon says that was the best vocal of the night so far, he's totally thrilled by that; likes how you take criticism as a challenge, don't sulk and aren't childish, am now a fan.

Back with Jason Yaeger, who I seriously barely remember. Oh yeah, the father with the blond streak in his hair; says he plays a bunch of instruments. Takes us through his history with the instruments, self-taught pretty much. In boring dark shirt, seems very cheesy right from the get-go, the way he looks and also moves. Trying to pull people along, but I don't know; vocally it's not bad, but the performance aspect is just killer. Long Train Running (Without Love); not a great choice, song's just okay. Randy says that song is mediocore, not a singer's kind of song, pitchy, karaoke; Paula says fun to see this side of you, but the song doesn't show off your vocal range, pick something better; Simon last week was boring this week was awkward and ordinary, horrific ending, like you were drunk at a party or something, very disappointed. Tells Ryan he was surprised, thought it was a good choice, the Doobie Brothers have a lot of soul, this is what I'm all about. Ha, this is his choice for soul?! Ryan just keeps asking him what he thinks, what can he do; Simon says this is never-ending like the Oscars, let's move on.

Back with Chikezie, in this weird blue poloish shirt. Says he's Nigerian, the pronunciation is pretty different than what people call him, says he just lets it go, easier this way. Whoah, good start for the only black guy left; very gospel tinge, he can sing; big smile, good energy, doing I Believe. Good performance, good vocals, I'm enjoying this the best of the night; he's just taking over, even letting loose with the dancing a bit. Randy loves it, this is the guy we fell in love with, that was blazing; Paula liked it; Simon says you look better, good choice of song, a million times better than last week. He tells Simon his problem last week was letting Simon get to him, spars with him a bit, but in a fun way, not like last week. A lot of laughs, he says he got lucky with the them, points out that one of the backup singers is Donny Hathaway's daughters.

David Cook who says he loves words, they run clips of him using interesting words; likes to do crosswords. Like him even more; whoah, in black t-shirt, rocking out with his electric guitar--great performance, totally believable and strong and fun to listen to. The show's saving its best for last tonight; All Right Now, gets the audience involved, good confidence, plus he can play the guitar. The crowd's totally into it; he's not shouting it, either. Randy loves his performance, says that was smart song choice, believable; Paula says you're the real deal, you've got it, loved it; Simon says solid, but the crosswords thing makes you boring, you don't have a lot of charisma, David shoots back fortunately I don't have to win you over, Simon says I know the rules of this by now, this is my opinion, the public chooses. He tells Ryan he realizes now he had to do more than just sing well. Simon says he's a bit irritated by David's comments, David backtracks a bit. Jeez, why do people still pick fights with Simon--for the most part, he's trying to help you.

Wow, David Archuletta gets a ton of screaming when Ryan simply says he's next. Says he got to meet the American Idol finalists season One, in the hotel lobby--he sang for them, there's grainy video! Wow, that's so cool, they really liked him. I like him a lot; doing John Lennon's Imagine. Good song for him, simple, pure; very sincere. His version is a bit more showy than Lennon's, starts a bit rough too, but he really gets into the swing of it, girls are screaming. I wonder though if he's a bit too young to sing this, it's not flowing so much as he's really singing it. He's turning it into something different, more a call to action... not sure it works that well, but his tone is really good, and the ending is nice; I like it, because I like him. Randy says that was one of the best vocals ever on this song, you were born to do this, calls it brilliant--but what about the first verse, he says he liked the third one better; Paula says you're ridiculous, I wanted to squish you and dangle you from my rear view mirror, she says it was very moving, is like in tears, says he's destined for super-stardom; Simon says very risky, but it worked, you're the one to beat, 19 other people aren't happy about that. David then gets the audience to clap for everyone else, it's a nice moment--his chick fans are all pushing up against the stage and are screaming for him, it's cute. He says it means a lot to him to hear what the judges says, he's blushing as girls scream things out to him.

Yeah, I think we've found this year's breakout star. He's going to be hard to beat, as long as he stays true and just sings.

Not that it really matters, but I think Jason Yaeger and Robbie Carrico
are going to get cut (not Noriega, even though I liked him less than Robbie).

Chikezie
David Archuletta
David Cook
David Hernandez
Jason Castro
Michael Johns
Luke Menard
Robbie Carrico
Danny Noriega
Jason Yaeger

Obama vs. Clinton II, this time in Ohio

MSNBC's Ohio debate starts with a quick ad for Cleveland State, courtesy Brian Williams. It somehow feels much more local at the top than CNN's debate last week from Texas.

The audience is definitely less racuous; Obama and Clinton are sitting on different sides of the stage from last week, he on the right she the left. There aren't really any rules, claims Brian; except for some sortof time limits.

Tim Russert looks fierce and heavily made-up; it's an interesting setup, the four of them seated at a large ovalish table.

They start with clips of Hillary's comments, going from honor to shame. She's got a huge smile on her face, odd. She's going on about the fliers, he's just giving her the stare of death. She pivots to health care, and just goes on about it. Looks tough, her usual crip demeanor.

Curious to see his rebuttal. Staying with Hillary, Williams brings up the Obama photo. She says she doesn't know where it came from, would fire the person. He says let's set it aside, I take her at her word on the photo. Hmmm, very interesting.

Goes to health care, says he's endured repeated negative ads from Senator Clinton about 15 million people being left out. She thinks a mandate's a way to go; I don't. Raises specific questions about her health care plan. Says she's constantly sent out negative attacks. Seems very crisp, says we haven't whined about it because I understand it's the nature of campaigns.

Clinton says let's stay on this, it's important. Says he has a mandate in his plan, on parents; I know from my work that there's cherry-picking unless everyone's covered. Universal health care is a core Democratic party value; Obama's mailing reads like the GOP and insurance companies wrote it.

Obama says it's not accurate for her to say that. Repeats we don't know how she's going to enforce the mandate, and we don't know what the subsidies are--they fine people in Massachusetts under their Clinton-ish plan. Obama concludes insurance companies like having a mandate, forces everyone to buy their product.

Clinton says her plan is affordable because they have enough money in it; not making it mandatory is like making Social Security voluntary. Obama gets the last word, repeats he won't accept her saying he's not going for universal health care--if we make it affordable, people will purchase it, just like Medicare Part B.

Obama, I think, gets the best of this exchange, not just with the last word but also with his style. Clinton tries to talk over Williams, beginning to sound a bit strident. Obama keeps trying to say something, she talks over him too. Obama is very cool, gets in the last word.

16 minutes on health care, says Brian Williams, and then goes to Nafta. Some in Texas says it's great, some in Ohio says no. Asks Clinton what she thinks.

Clinton points out in the last few debates she seems to get the first question every time, cites the Saturday Night Live skit. But I'm happy to answer it. That's kindof funny, generally journalists balance these things out.

She's really wound up, goes on a long thing about Nafta, says we need a plan to fix it. Says Obama's Nafta attacks are wrong, citing Cleveland Plain Dealer. I don't think she should have said that, she's wrong on that line, should talk about the issue in general.

Obama says it's inaccurate for Clinton to say she's always opposed Nafta. Links Youngstown to Illinois, I've always thought the agreement was flawed. I think she's shifted positions on this; I think that's a good thing. Cites his experience as an organizer on the streets of Chicago. He's really in fine form tonight; very presidential, tough but not rude. She's going to get increasingly frustrated, curious to see if there's some sort of meltdown.

Russert's turn, asks Clinton about her husband's stance, and confronts her with past statements. Brings up Al Gore's words, says we can get out of it in six months. Will you say that?

Clinton says I'll renegotiate it; we will opt out unless we renegotiate it. Let's be fair; there are lots of part of the country that have benefitted. Other places have not. She tries to shift to Obama, Russert says let's stay on you, your words are much different.

She hits him back, you don't have all the record. Not sure how well Russert's style will play here, he likes being right in the mix of things, a bit hard when the two opponents want that role too. She's really digging in, very deliberate and tough.

Russert turns toward Obama, will you opt out? He says I'll renegotiate, Clinton is right on this--use it as leverage to get new standards, we haven't had that so far. Says when he ran for the Senate, the Tribune said in its endorsement it was endorsing him despite his opposition to Nafta. Corrects Russert on something he quotes from his speech, look at the whole thing, let's negotiate on behalf of workers, not just Wall Street.

Man, he is really in good form tonight, pivots into a speech about his support for the working man. Russert asks him about whether these old jobs are just gone, maybe it's been better over all? Obama says not good for Ohio, but trade should in general be part of our economic strategy. Says let's invest in infrastructure, let's invest in science and technology, education, energy.

Russert goes back to Clinton, about her economic blueprint--upstate New York hasn't gotten new jobs, unlike what you said in 2000, are you just being exhuberant again. She says no, I was counting on a Democratic White House. Good answer; we can create at least 5 million new jobs, 22.7 million jobs were created during my husband's terms; I'm not just talking about it, have passed programs to do it.

This is a very different debate than the CNN one; the answers are much longer, candidates are much more into it early.

Back to Williams, asks Obama about Clinton hitting him on foreign policy yesterday. It's actually going to be an easy question for him, he's just going to say judgment over experience. Asks him how are you going to stack up against John McCain?

She equates experience with longevity in Washingon--that's a bad measure. I was right on the Iraq war, lists why he was against it; links McCain to it, quoting his 100 years comment. Brings up his Pakistan/Musharraf comment, we've got the worst of all worlds there now. On the critical issues that matter, my judgment has been superior to Clinton and McCain.

Williams gives her a chance to repeat her speech claims that Obama's not ready, she fillibusters and talks about her own points. She says Obama gave a good speech against the war, but he didn't have responsibility, and didn't have to vote--wow, she's going to try and claim there's no difference between them on Iraq? Hmm; compare it when we both had the responsibility, we've pretty much voted the same. This is a big mistake for Clinton, she's trying to convince us black is white; curious to see what he'll say. She then adds threatening to bomb Pakistan isn't a good position to take; I also don't think meeting with dictators without conditions is good.

Obama's all but smiling; jumps in, my opposition wasn't just a speech, it was a pattern, this is how I make decisions--it was a strategic blunder. Who's deciding to drive the bus into the ditch; she's not ready on day one, gave up to George Bush, she faciliated and enabled his bad decision. I never said I'd bomb Pakistan--very crisply dismisses her; instead, we should strike against terrorists; the Bush administration just did that a few days ago, we should've done that to begin with. It's not just based on a speech, it's based on the judgments I've displayed. Let's debate McCain with different positions, not the same.

Russert cuts off Clinton's half-hearted efforts to respond; she really just got hammered. What if Iraq doesn't let you pull out slowly but wants you either in or out, what would you do? It's not really directed at either, but at this stage of the debate Obama's driving the bus.

Obama says if the government doesn't want us there, we can't be there, they're a sovereign government. We can't enable them permanently, let's not be held hostage by the Iraqi government. This has consistently been his best answer during the debates, he delivers again.

Russert turns to Clinton, she's a bit weary; Russert tries to cut her off, and does--wow. If Iraq goes crazy, do you have the right to go back in? Clinton says you're asking a lot of hypotheticals--it's in everyone's interest to have an orderly withdrawal. We can take out 1 to 2 brigades a month. I've been a leader in pushing us to get out; we have to make judgments on what's in the best interests of America. Obama talks about Afghanistan, he chairs the committee that oversees Europe, why hasn't he pushed NATO to do something there? Hmmm, good question.

Russert cuts her off, wants Obama to respond, and also answer the Iraq question. Obama says he became chair in 2007--it's true I haven't had hearings. I've been clear what I think we should do. Hmm, there's her opening, she should pound him on it--why do you talk, but not do.

Then he pivots to Iraq, I always reserve the right to look out for American interests. That's true in other places; we should always cooperate with our allies, but if they're not acting, it's my job to make sure we're hunting them down.

Williams says we've gotta go to a break, and they do, despite Clinton's attempt to jump in. The audience laughs and applauds his comment that the first segment was very warm. Clinton's late getting back to the table, Obama's sitting there waiting. These little things are very interesting, if you're running for president you should be ready to speak when the cameras are back on.

Obama's up next, Williams says let's watch some tape of you, but instead they show Clinton mocking him earlier in the week. I mean, this is a total set-up for him, she looks ridiculous saying let the skies open up. He says, Sounds good, gets a big laugh from the audience. It was a technical screw-up, they ask him anyway.

He says with a smile she showed some good humor, I'd give her points for delivery. It's a perfect answer; she laughs. He says look, I understand her point--but I've spent 20 years working for families. Lists a bunch of his accomplishments. If Clinton thinks it's all talk, tell that to the people I've helped--veterans, people who benefitted from my ethics reform legislation. Says he'll make one point, met with four women in Cincinnati, tells their stories.

He's essentially taking advantage of Williams being embarassed over the technical glitch and scoring some points; sums up the women as saying nobody's been listening to them. I'm not interesting in talk, speeches; I wouldn't run if I didn't think I could help people concretely.

Williams asks her what did you mean, she says she was having fun; the larger point is it's not easy to do these things. It takes a fighter, somebody who will go toe to toe with the special interests. Man, I hope he says he hasn't taken any money from special interests, but you have.

She starts listing bills she voted on, and what Obama did; he wants to respond, she goes on. Williams says let's watch the video, Obama wants to respond. The clip is him saying she can't just take credit for the good things, and run away from things you don't like. Williams asks what about this co-president thing.

He says she includes her eight years as First Lady; he says that's fine, all I'm saying is you have to own up to the bad things. He's totally reasonable, this is a winning argument for him. Pivots to her last responses. He says on credit cards, I objected to the entire bill; she voted for it, but said she hoped it wouldn't pass. He says that's not a good thing. On being a fighter on health care, he says he doesn't doubt her intentions, but her approach was wrong because her view is what's required is to fight. She fought everyone.

Man, he is really taking her to town. Lists a bunch of Democrats who were left out in '93. Hope isn't enough, if it was it'd already be done; the only way we're going to get this stuff done is mobilize and inspire the people so they're paying attention to their government; second, go after the special interests. Brings up you can't take millions from the special interests, they're less likely to go away.

My gosh, it's devastating--and Clinton doesn't try to respond!

Russert asks him what about keeping your word, on public financing. You seem to be waffling, will you keep your word. Obama says I'm not yet the nominee, very seriously and smoothly, Clinton's a pretty tough opponent. I will sit down with McCain, and make sure we have a system that's fair for both sides. Hits McCain on his public financing waffling.

Obama is totally on a roll, then says let's point out I haven't take PAC money, or lobbyist money--it costs millions, but it was the right thing to do. We've raised 90% from small donors, average donation is $109--my god, he's totally dominating this debate.

Russert asks Clinton why you release your income taxes, speaks for a while about who's bankrolling your campaign. She's like shell-shocked or something, pitches people to go to her website. Says she'll release her tax returns, others do it when you become the nominee, or even earlier. I've been open, the public has 20 years of records. Before Tuesday asks Russert? I can't get it together before then she says, it's just a horrible answer, says she doesn't have time.

Russert hits her again, will you release your public schedule from your husband's terms? She says I want it to go as quick as possible. She's totally stumbling, it's totally bad for her; tries to attack Bush.

Now it's Obama's turn, Farrakan's endorsement. He says he's been clear in his denunciation of his anti-Semitic comments, I did not solicit this; he's proud of me, I can't censor him, but we're not doing anything with him. Russert asks will you reject his support? Obama says I've been clear in my denunciations of him. Russert tries to bring up Farrakan's statements; Obama cuts him up, I've always denounced it.

Now Russert asks him about his pastor. Obama is looking very cold as Russert says what do you say to Jewish Americans, and your stance on Israel. Obama says some of my strongest support is from the Jewish community because I've been a strong friend of Israel, we have a special relationship with them. The reason I have such strong support is because I don't tolerate anti-Sematism, and because I want to rebuild the historic friendship between blacks and Jews. If it weren't for Jews in the civil rights movement, I wouldn't be sitting here.

Wow; I mean, he's really been at his peak tonight. The people who know me best support me, have consistently been willing to speak out even when it's not comfortable; closes with his MLK sermon, spoke out against anti-Semitism within the African-American community.

Clinton jumps in, says I faced a similar situation in New York, [but] I made it clear that I did not want the support of a smaller party that supported me and rejected it. That's very interesting, she's basically faulting Obama, Russert says are you saying Obama's not standing on principle and isn't doing the right thing.

Obama flashes a smile as she says no, but then goes on to critique his stance while pretending she's not. Obama says I don't see the difference, but I will say I reject and denounce Farrakan if that makes Clinton feel better. Clinton says good, good.

Williams jokes as the audience claps that they're driven to jump in to applaud the discussion over the difference between reject and denounce, and we go to break.

It's really quite amazing to me how much Obama has controlled the debate; it's a clear win for him so far, if you want to score it in those terms. More importantly, he's coming across as ready to be president, on day one.

Back from break, Williams asks him about the National Journal rating him as the most liberal Senator. He says let's talk specifically about what we were rated on; I differed from Clinton on two things. One about illegal immigration, the other about setting up a Senate office of public integrity, so it's not Senators investigating each other. The Journal calls that a liberal position--I don't think it is. The categories in that scorecard don't make sense.

And, he pivots and makes the bigger point--I get support because people don't want to stick with these tired old labels. The proof is in the pudding, I get more GOP and Independent support than anyone, and I beat McCain in all the polls.

No follow-up or Clinton interjection; Russert then asks a gotcha question, what can you tell us about the man who's going to replace Putin in Russia this weekend? Clinton probably doesn't know the guy's name--neither do I--and goes on about how the whole process isn't democratic. Putin will still make the decisions; Russert asks her if she knows the name, she kindof stumbles but gets it out with some help from him, she says whatever.

Obama says yeah, it's not democratic, then pivots perfectly and says let's remember what Bush said about Putin, that he looked in his eyes and liked him, faults Bush on his Russia policy. Russert rehashes the guy's bio, asks Obama what happens if he tries to send troops into Serbia; Obama doesn't blink, says we don't have to work in isolation, we have a strong international structure in place in NATO.

Then compliments the Clinton administration for its work in the Balkans, I mean Obama is holding a master class on how to excel in a presidential debate. He's totally comfortable, and it's quite amazing to watch.

Russert asks what you'd take back in your career as a public servant. Clinton says she's said many times she'd take back her vote on Iraq. Then, implausibly, she says this election has to be about the future, what we're going to do around the world, sketches out a list of countries and what's going on in each one. Says I'm uniquely qualified, with my experience on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.

Obama says in his first year in the Senate the Terri Schiavo case was going on, we adjourned with a unanimous agreement that allowed Congress to intervene later. I wasn't comfortable with it, as a constitutional law scholar I should have known better.

But let me say this as we're wrapping up this debate. We've gone through 20 debates now, there's a lot of fight left, but I'm very proud to have been going up against Clinton. It's his turn to be magnanimous, in some ways reflecting what she said at the end in Texas.

People's expectations are so modest, people just want a bit of a hand up, they're not looking for government to solve all their problems, we need to change how business is done in Washington. Whoever wins the nomination, we'll both fight for the people.

Russert sortof cuts him off, then Williams says we do have a closing question, what does Clinton need to answer. He says I think she'd be worthy, I think I'd be better; there's no doubt that she's qualified, capable, and would be much better than John McCain. Goes after McCain; he's not going to play Williams' game; the question is idiotic, no candidate is going to end talking about what his opponent needs to prove to be president.

Obama concludes instead he thinks he's better because he can bring the country better in a unique way. I have a track record of bringing a bias in favor of opening up government so people can have confidence that their voice is being heard.

Clinton says this campaign is history-making on either end, gets applause from the audience when she says the first woman president would change a lot of things. The question I've been posing, she claims, is who would better change the country. Says when she failed on universal health care, she got to work on children's health legislation, cites someone she met today. I want to help people get the chances they deserve; doesn't list Vermont in her list of the four states voting next, Obama's been careful to do that.

Williams says the whole thing is reairing; thanks to everyone, etc. Obama is first to stand up, first to shake hands with Clinton, then Williams, then Russert. Chelsea comes out and hugs her mom, Obama's out working the crowd, she comes out too.

Really--it's very rare that you watch a debate and can say one person clearly won, and it wasn't even close. That happened tonight.

Obama unfiltered

Barack Obama really is the candidate for the YouTube generation. Check out his video response to Bush's State of the Union speech.

It looks like he shot it himself, at home--notice the books crammed on the bookshelf.

American Idol cuts to 20

Watching the first results show of the season, it's now an hour-long each night. Sheesh. Hmm, very interesting Paula tries to spin the fact that all the people on this show have been elsewhere, she says kids nowadays are savvy, if they haven't already tried to make it somewhere else they're probably not very good.

I do think Idol loses something really important when it's no longer real amateurs. Oh well; they do some glammed-up group thing, to the strains of Daughtry; it's funny that they're going with the flow and making these kids even more non-normal. Who wants to vote for a bunch of ringers?! Especially when you have YouTube. The applause coming back is tepid.

The group sing, it's okay but also overproduced. Like Idol meets Gossip Girls. A medley of 60s songs, it's kindof a mess, really drags. It's so weird that every year their first show is this horrid 60s one; like they're not even attempting to compete with reality.

I think Idol's potential is being undermined by its producers; it's really a pretty wretched 3:30 of TV. It's not a good thing if the audience starts associating Idol with boredom.

Guys up first; I vote for Garrett and Colton. Everyone's in black suits, left over from the medley. Ryan calls Garrett out first for 'a chat'--and wow, cuts him just like that. It's cold, sudden, but not unexpected. He says he's just being himself. He's really a nice guy, put on the spot, sings himself out. Hope he gets to keep the suit. Wasn't hard to lose him, he was just non-compelling.

Ladies are up after the break. Calls us Kristy first; oh-oh. Cool, she's safe. I voted for Joanne and Alexandrea; oh no, it's Amy Davis! That's horrible, I liked her. She seems a bit in shock. They show her mom, you can definitely see that she's half-Japanese. She's struggling even singing her swan song; oh well.

Back, Ryan says he's going to turn his attention to the judges. Paula did a track on Randy's new album, they run a promo for it. Whoah, Paula's singing and dancing in the music video, Randy's wailing on the guitar. The song's got a hpnotic beat, but melody isn't that great, I guess it's part of some dance album. Near the end they juxtapose clips of old cheerleaders, which is interesting--old vs. new, but this very night on Idol it's like they wanted to go back to the days of black and white.

It's all incestual, like a 5-minute commercial. Back to the women, I guess they're gonna mess with them for a while. Calls up Joanne and Amanda, everyone on the sofa is safe and will be back. Back from break, Joanne's cut. So I'm 2 for 3 so far; not bad. Randy says it was your nerves. Simon says it was your worst performance, that's what happens. She's pretty gracious, Ramiele's crying and Carly's comforting her.
Hey, I wonder whatever happened to Sanjaya's sobbing fan? Asia'h's crying too. They're doing a new thing where the peeps of the cut person stands up above the stage and watches them sing out.

Back for the last time, they have 8 minutes to fill so it'll probably get stretched out a bit. Colton and Chikezie--wow, they get right to it, no messing about. Ryan makes fun of Simon, Simon asks Paula four times in a row, quickly: What'd he say, what'd he say, what'd he say, what'd he say? Paula says it wasn't nice. Paula tells Colton to never think about giving up singing, you're talented. Simon disagrees, tells him to get a good day job.

Oh, they switch it up, show their journey at the end--it's not fair, they should give each of them their own moment, heck they have a full hour! All the losers are on stage together, preppie Colton sings us out. Man, Ramiele crys at the drop of a hat, at this rate she's going to be exhausted in a few weeks. Hey, even Danny Noriega's crying--whaaat?

Right
Garrett
Colton
Joanne

Wrong
Amy

FEC puts McCain in trouble

It's getting lost in the post Obama-Clinton debate debate, but the Washington Post is reporting that John McCain has been told by the FEC Commissioner that he can't withdraw from the public financing system he applied for when his campaign was broke.

This is very bad news for McCain--even if he somehow finds a loophole, he's just lost one of his great strengths, that he's been a leader on trying to clean up Washington from within. FEC Warns McCain on Campaign Spending:

Matthew Mosk and Glenn Kessler: The nation's top federal election official told Sen. John McCain yesterday that he cannot immediately withdraw from the presidential public financing system as he had requested, a decision that threatens to dramatically restrict his spending until the general election campaign begins in the fall.

The prospect of being financially hamstrung by the very fundraising system he helped create is the latest in a series of bitter challenges for the presumed GOP nominee, who still faces a fractured conservative coalition as he assumes the mantle of party leadership. ... [8 paragraphs reporting on the McCain/lobbyist story]

But McCain's attempts to build up his campaign coffers in advance of a general election contest appeared to be threatened by the stern warning yesterday from Federal Election Commission Chairman David M. Mason, a Republican. Mason notified McCain that the commission had not granted his Feb. 6 request to withdraw from the presidential public financing system.

The implications of that could be dramatic. Last year, when McCain's campaign was starved for cash, he applied to join the financing system to gain access to millions of dollars in federal matching funds. He was also permitted to use his FEC certification to bypass the time-consuming process of gathering signatures to get his name on the ballot in several states, including Ohio.
By signing up for matching funds, McCain agreed to adhere to strict state-by-state spending limits and an overall cap on spending of $54 million for the primary season, which lasts until the party convention in September. There is a separate public financing arrangement for the general election.

But after McCain won a series of early primaries and the campaign found its financial footing, his lawyer wrote to the FEC requesting to back out of the program -- which is permitted for candidates who have not yet received any federal funds and who have not used the promise of federal funds as collateral for borrowing money.

Mason's letter raises two issues as the basis for his position. One is that the six-member commission lacks a quorum, with four vacancies because of a Senate deadlock over President Bush's nominees for the seats. Mason said the FEC would need to vote on McCain's request to leave the system, which is not possible without a quorum. Until that can happen, the candidate will have to remain within the system, Mason said.

The second issue is more complicated. It involves a $1 million loan McCain obtained from a Bethesda bank in January. The bank was worried about McCain's ability to repay the loan if he exited the federal financing program and started to lose in the primary race. McCain promised the bank that, if that happened, he would reapply for matching funds and offer those as collateral for the loan. While McCain's aides have argued that the campaign was careful to make sure that they technically complied with the rules, Mason indicated that the question needs further FEC review.

If the FEC refuses McCain's request to leave the system, his campaign could be bound by a potentially debilitating spending cap until he formally accepts his party's nomination. His campaign has already spent $49 million, federal reports show. Knowingly violating the spending limit is a criminal offense that could put McCain at risk of stiff fines and a jail term of up to five years.

"If in fact he is stuck with these spending limits, it would be a serious limitation on what he can do," said Rick Hasen, an election law expert at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.

Finance experts compared the situation to the massive imbalance faced by Republican presidential nominee Robert J. Dole in 1996, when he was forced to contend with spending limits while his opponent, President Bill Clinton, was not.

Trevor Potter, a former FEC chairman who is McCain's top lawyer, immediately disputed the assertions in Mason's letter, saying McCain has a constitutional right to exit the federal program. He also dismissed the letter as unenforceable because the FEC lacks a quorum to resolve the dispute.

"We believe that Senator McCain had a clear legal right to withdraw from the primary matching fund system, and he has done so," Potter told the Associated Press. "No FEC action was or is required for withdrawal."

Campaign finance experts were split on how serious the FEC position could become. But several agreed that the matter would not be resolved by McCain simply ignoring the letter and plowing ahead.

"It's nice for Trevor Potter to say 'Buzz off,' but the campaign is going to have to respond," said Bradley Smith, a former FEC chairman.

"This is serious," agreed Republican election lawyer Jan Baran. Ignoring the matter on the grounds that the FEC lacks a quorum, Baran said, "is like saying you're going to break into houses because the sheriff is out of town."

Wow--so he's facing jail time if he tries to pull out unilaterally.

Wonder how well the Straight Talk Express can be run from San Quentin?

Obama vs. Clinton in Texas

It's Barack Obama vs. Hillary Clinton, live from Texas and in front of an exciteable audience. They get opening statements, Clinton tries to humanize herself, Obama is nervous as he usually is at the start, a bit rough for him (yeah, this is just like blogging American Idol!)

First question is on Cuba, from Jorge Ramos of Univision, whether they'd talk to Raul Castro. Clinton says yes, after he earns it; Obama says yes, it's worth taking a risk to try and change that relationship. His key point is especially after George Bush, America can't put ourselves above the rest of the world and tell them they have to earn the right to talk to us, we have to take the extra step and try to change the dynamics of the world. It's a good answer.

Second, John King asks what's the difference between you guys on the economy? Obama talks about his tax policies, none of which seem like anything Clinton wouldn't also support. Then he brings up trade deals... waiting for him to mention NAFTA... he doesn't, pivots to talking about creating a green economy. He essentially closes with we're similar on a lot of these things, but I can get the change done and Clinton can't.

Surprisingly Clinton doesn't hit Obama right away, lays out her policies--including she wants to create a trade prosecutor to enforce these agreements. She's very specific, will freeze foreclosures; gets big applause for going after Bush's war on science.

Immigration is next, Ramos again--would you stop these raids that are tearing apart families. Clinton says yes, she'd consider it; it's horrible, and un-American. She'd go after employers who take advantage of illegal immigrants, and would work with Mexico to create jobs there; we need a path to legalization. It's a good, comprehensive answer, not much room left for Obama. She's clearly got the momentum tonight, is speaking confidently and strongly.

Obama says he'd add a few things to what Clinton said, has worked on comprehensive immigration reform as well. First, we need to tone down the ugly rhetoric--we're a nation of laws, and of immigrants, and we can reconcile those two things. We need stronger border security, crackdown on employers but without discriminating against all Hispanics. And we need to make sure the path to citizenship doesn't reward lawbreakers. And we need to fix the system so the backlog for legal immigration isn't so long; and we have to improve our relationship with Mexico. Odd, he doesn't mention his own personal ties to immigration, wonder why not.

King asks Clinton about the border fence with Mexico and whether she'd speed up progress on it or stop it. She says she'd review it, and listen to the people who live along the border. She pushes for smart fencing, instead of a physical barrier--calls Bush's policies dumb. She's very strident, always speaks at full volume.

Obama says they entirely agree--consult with local communities. Bush isn't good at listening. He pivots and says we need to also deal with the people who are already here. He doesn't mention his dad at all; wants to let kids who have grown up here to get education, big applause when he says he doesn't want two classes of people.

Ramos again, a ton of people speak Spanish here--is there a downside to this country becoming bilingual? Clinton says it's important for Americans to learn another language, which she says she's never been able to do. We should all be unified by English, but let's not make it the official language.

Obama says everyone should learn a second language; so odd he's not talking about his own background, not even his ability to speak other languages. Takes a swipe at No Child Left Behind.

John King, back from break--why are you guys being so nice tonight? Asks Clinton if Obama is all hat, no cattle, and can you say that after the last 45 minutes. She says she has indeed said it about Bush; Obama and I have a lot in common but there are differences. She's speaking very carefully now, it's interesting how deliberately she's trying not to sound negative. Brings up how one of Obama's supporters couldn't name any accomplishments by Obama. So there's her dig....

Obama calmly listens, then says he's acted a lot in his career, starts listing things, speaking over the applause; hits Clinton for slamming Obama's wins and endorsements and momentum, mentions every paper in Texas has backed him--they're not all being duped, they perceive the reality of Washington's current climate very accurately. It's a key moment in the debate, he goes on that the reason he's done so well is it's not just about policy positions; you also have to inspire people to get involved, to go beyond divisions, otherwise you get more gridlock and families suffer as a result. Big applause that goes on.

Campbell Brown raises the plagiarism issue. He says look, it's two lines out of a lot of speeches, I've been running for two years now (oh, really?!) He says it's silly to say I've plagiarized from one of my co-chairs, who gave me the line and suggested I use it; it's the silly season people don't like. Man, he's seized the momentum in the debate; starts listing specifics from his speeches, Brown tries to cut him off, he says to finish, these are specific, concrete and detailed, let's not tear each other down, let's lift the country up.

Clinton says if your candidacy is about words, they should be your own words. It's not change you can believe in, it's change you can Xerox. He interjects, crowd boos, she gets tough--Barack, this is important.... We have to unite the country for a purpose, around specific goals. The tone in the debate has shifted again; her applause line about Xerox is going to get looped along with the boos.

Hits him on health care, then on foreclosures--we all know we have to join together, let's look hard at what we have to do. He wants to jump in, she keeps going, he's got that look on his face. Clinton brings up her '93 fight for healthcare like it's a badge of honor.

Obama purposefully says let's talk about the issues where we disagree; she liked my health plan earlier, now she doesn't. She keeps staring at him when he's speaking, it's weird. He's listing his health care plan specifics--get to the line about her garnishing people's wages. Finally; he says it's not universal cause it's not affordable. He says he admires her attempt to bring healthcare reform in '93--it's just the way they did it before closed doors made it hard for people to cooperate. Ah, brings it back to how none of this stuff will happen unless we change Washington.

They go to break over Clinton's trying to jump back in. Wow, that was the key moment--Obama came off better, I think, by just ignoring her attacks and being boringly specific.

Ramos asks Clinton if Obama's ready to be commander-in-chief; she says she thinks she is, let's go back to health care, it's a substantive difference. She says we'll all pay a hidden tax if we don't mandate it, quotes John Edwards that it'd be like if Social Security was voluntary.

Obama jumps back, winds up being allowed to be brief--Clinton's mandate is on individuals not government; it doesn't work in Massachussetts--people are paying a fine, and they still can't afford to pay for it. A harsh stiff penalty--Clinton wants to go after people's wages; we both want it, the difference is how to get there.

Clinton jumps back in, this is too important, it's the top issue people talk to us about. Obama keeps raising his finger to jump back in as Clinton hammers on him. Obama basically says adults will be able to make choices under my plan, it's not true 15 million will be left out.

Ramos tries again on commander-in-chief, what do you mean. She talks about her own experiences, there's a lot going on in the world. It's interesting, she goes on about the importance of presidential leadership--this all feeds into Obama's arguments, and he certainly seems tough enough tonight to negotiate with other countries.

Obama says I wouldn't run if I didn't think I was ready. My top job is to keep the American people safe. Talks about a lot of families in Texas who have people on multiple tours of duty because of Bush's poor planning. He brings up the war in Iraq--on the top choice of our decision, I showed the proper judgment, and I believe Clinton was wrong. It diverted attention from Afghanistan. He lists how he was right in Iraq, right on Pakistan on how we need to go after terrorists without depending on Musharraf; I've shown the judgment to lead.

King asks, wasn't the surge the right decision--isn't it better off today than it was before? Clinton says the Iraqi government hasn't made progress; Obama gave a great answer on this in New Hampshire, let's see what he says here; she's just going on about how the surge really hasn't done that well. She ignores her wrong vote on Iraq; says it's not in anyone's interest for us to stay there.

Obama takes a different tack--it's indisputable that we've seen the violence gone down, credits a local Texas unit. It's a tactical victory on top of a huge strategic blunder. It'll be easier for me to debate McCain on Iraq, than Clinton's tactical arguments. Our entire aid to Latin America is about how much we spend in Iraq in a week. The burden on the American people is huge, he's on a roll now, listing problem after problem related to the war in Iraq and veterans--the fact that we're spending $12 billion a month in Iraq hamstrings us in every other area. Brings up McCain's 100 years line; hits him on not understanding the economy--big applause as he finshes. Wow, Clinton got creamed there, she's just sitting there smiling.

Back from break, curious what the candidates do; Brown gets in a plug for CNN's post-debate coverage. King asks Obama about earmarks, claims he hasn't disclosed his $90M in earmarks. Obama says it's not true, we've disclosed it all, we can get you a copy. Plugs his google for government database. This is a softball for him, really, Obama's very good on this issue.

Clinton gets asked a long question by King about McCain's stance of taking no earmarks; she just goes after the Bush administration's bad fiscal policy, we borrow money from the Chinese to buy oil from the Saudis. Totally dodges King's question, asks where has the money gone under Bush. Let's go back to the 90s, when things were working well.

Campos asks about superdelegates. Clinton dodges it, it'll sort itself out, we'll be unified and we'll win. And that's it. Obama says these primaries and caucuses need to count for something--the will of the voters will determine the nominee. He's no pushover, goes on to say it's most important to the voters that we have a government which is listening to them again, they feel like they've been shut out. They don't get a sense that the debates in Washington relate to them at all, people are trying to score points, win elections. I have no doubt that the Democratic party at its best can summon a higher purpose for the American people, I'm going to give them their government back.

Wow, that's it--last question. Brown asks about judgment during a time of crisis. Obama says no single moment--the trajectory of my life. Tells his bio. What was most important was learning to take responsibility for my own actions, and how I can bring people together. Organizer, civil rights attorney, that cumulative experience is what I bring. Kind of flat applause afterwards.

Clinton says everyone here knows I've lived through some crises and some challenging moments, gets big applause. She makes a good point, everything I've gone through is nothing compared to the American people's problems. Launches into a stock anecdote, opening of a medical center in Texas, just her and McCain. It's so staged, maudlin. Oh, she's getting a bit emotional; hits I've taken in life are nothing compared to the wounded soldiers there. Big applause drowns out here end, as she talks about wanting to help motivates her; oh, she goes--I'm honored to be here, they shake hands as she says this.

It's her best moment of the night, she seems to be speaking from her heart, this is about the American people. The audience stands and applauds, candidates sit and acknowledge. Brown says a standing ovation, closes, the two shake hands, Obama shakes hands with the panel, Chelsea comes up with Hillary; Brown runs a commercial, Obama shakes her hand, and that's it.

It was a good debate; Obama did well, Clinton as well. Obama wins by virtue of not messing up; afterwards, he's mobbed by the audience, she's got a lot of people around her too. He was smart in that he was a bit boring, and anyone who reads the transcript would probably see his well-thought-out responses.

David Gergen, who I like, just said on CNN he thought Clinton's best moment was her last one. Candy Crowley thought Clinton's worst moment was getting booed on the xerox line. Wow, this is just like Idol, complete with judges to compare my responses with.

Jeffrey Toobin thinks the last remarks by Clinton was a bit valedictory, that she's going to leave on the high ground--hmmm, interesting.

This election's been over for a while; going point by point over who won each section of the debate is pointless. Even if Obama makes a major gaffe at some point in the next 10 days, early voting and momentum will carry him through.

Brown afterwards analyzes it like she wasn't there; give us some sense of what it was like up there, sheesh.... She thinks the audience would like to see them together on a ticket; ha!

King says everyone was pretty positive, Clinton in contrast to her stump speech. He mentions backstage he realized she wasn't going to come out and hit him, she walked over to him and they talked warmly beforehand, about their Secret Service agents buying cowboy boots in Texas.

Ultimately, the debate tonight is really for undecided voters, independents and Republicans for the general election. Barack Obama came across as presidential, and believable as commander-in-chief; that's what he needed to do.

American Idol's top 12 women

Blogging American Idol live, hope the women are better than the guys were. Oooh, the flu's hit the gropu... curious to see who can overcome. Brooke will go after tonight, I predict based on the walk-out (I think I was right yesterday about Garrett).

Randy claims the guys were really good last night--oh?! Then Ryan asks Paula, girl to girl, what her advice for the group is... she says just work it out, sick or not. Simon's asked about sparring from contestants, he says he likes it.

They do a montage of the women, then go to break... ugh, no FF.

Kristy Lee Cook up first, who I like. She wants to buy her horse back; my guess is someone watching the show will send her the cash. Strides out with Rescue Me; tight goldish top, jeans. A bit flat-seeming and safe, she keeps scrunching up her nose at the camera. It's average, tone isn't bad but not great. She's standing like she's riding a horse, audience is just sitting there. Randy says not your best, pitch problems all the way through; Paula says being sick, being first--double whammy, bring out your shine next time; Simon says bad song choice, you needed to belt it out; robotic, who cares about being sick, no impression. I think she needs to get glammed up a bit, too.

Joanne Borgella, the plus-size model who keeps talking about it. She's pretty good, not sure how long she'll be around. In blue and black; kindof a rough start, her voice gets swallowed up a bit. Say a Little Prayer for You; hmm, she has a decent tone, think she's a bit pitchy. Powering through, bit strident at times; not a bad performance but also nothing amazing. Randy says some nerves, first part was weird but worked it out; Paula says you've been good in the past, build your confidence, enjoy it; Simon didn't like it at all, you have to come out and nail it, just average cabaret version of a cabaret song, no confidence, substandard. If you don't grab hold of your chance now, you don't deserve to win the show. She wants another chance she tells Ryan; has a good attitude towards the criticism, is a real adult. Wonder if sulking pretty boy noticed.

Alaina Whitaker, the youngest contestant, who has a birthday tomorrow and says she just wants to stick around--and get some great shoes. Ugh, not a great impression from the chat with Ryan. In yellow and white top, jeans; gosh, she has a good voice--slow, sultry, controlled; very aware of the camera. Nice big voice, good energy, seems to be having a good time--total natural on stage. I Love You More Today Than Yesterday; good song choice, lots of color and gets people on their feet. Nice job. Randy likes her conviction and confidence after a rough start; Paula says it was all feel good, great ending; Simon is grinning, says I think you're very good. Hates the song, so corny, but you made a bad song sound okay, will sail through to the next round.

Amanda Overmeyer, who's totally different than everyone else, I like her. Oooh, total high energy, strides out there all in black with patchy trousers--Baby Please don't Go; words a bit swallowed up, it's a hard song to pull off. But totally rocking; she's totally performing. Hard to understand her, but you kind of get swept up. It's kindof falling apart a bit, starts shouting. Not really my thing, but interesting. Randy likes it all, Paula loves it all, the real deal; Simon is just laughing, really liked it too, authentic; he didn't get the skatting halfway through and doesn't know the song apparently, says you'll have to sing for real at some point and a bit all over the place, but I like you. She's very comfortable up there, she says she hates watching herself dance for that promo clip. She's totally cool, and polite.


Amy Davis--who's a grad student and trade show model, and a quarter Japanese, as Paula dug out. She has kind of a bewitching look; black top and jeans. Oooh, good song choice--Where the Boys Are. It just rollllls out, slow and deliberate. She's nervous and it's a bit off; feels like it's off-key. But big voice. I don't know, started out good, but I think she's losing the audience a bit, she's not really on key. Randy is laughing, not great--you scoop up to the note, but you had a lot of pitch problems; Paula says you're beautiful, but nervous, not the most engaging song; Simon says you look great, but didn't sound great, boring song and cabaret. Thinks she'll struggle; I don't think so. Tells Ryan she felt shaky.

Brooke White, the nanny, she seems a bit like she lives in her own world; not sure if she'll live up to her potential, but I liked her at the audition stage. Doing Golden Grahams song, part deux; plays to her smoky voice, there's a compelling sense to it that I like. Hey, I like it--she performs it well, varies the tone well, can really sing, the guys seem to be into it. Randy says rough start, but worked it out, you got your slaying on; Paula says you're very original, good song choice, great; Simon says good choice, but it's all so dated, very you but not all relevant; I presume you're just going to be nice all the way through this contest. The back and forth just goes on forever, it's pointless, Simon uses the phrase washing up liquid cause that's what they call it in the UK.

Alexandrea Lushington, doing a very breathy version of Spinning Wheel, in t-shirt and suspenders. It's okay; oversings, overperforms. Some pitch problems, I don't like the song so not crazy about it all. Randy says young kids are doing well, you blew the doors off that, you stayed on the notes despite all the weird chords; Paula loved it, took control of the whole thing, dope outfit, lot of confidence, totally updated the song; Simon didn't get it, vocals weren't great, like some awful musical; Randy and Paula totally disagree. Hmm, her parents seem cool, likely Obama supporters. She corrects Ryan on how to say her name, she's kindof got an attitude. Simon says no outstandingly good vocals really, everyone's capable of better.

Kady Milloy, who has an almost preternatural steadiness in the interviews. She says she's obsessed with music, works in a studio. Very expressive face; wow--great voice! Groovy Kind of Love--she is really good. Brown dress, sitting there just spooling out the song, is a total natural performer. This is the best single performance so far this year. It's like the finals already; interesting pacing of the song, seems very authentic. Randy loved the backstage stuff, found it okay, so restrained and controlled, kept waiting for it to get belted out, felt like your concentration was gone. Paula says want more of your personality, life, fun; Simon agrees with Paula, like Night of the Living Dead. Ah, I disagree with all of them, I liked the song and performance. Simon says lighten up, have fun. Kady's really unhappy, like look of death; Paula says don't worry so much about how you should be, just be you. She needs to be careful she doesn't come across as ice queen.

Asia'h Eperson, whose dad died, one of the best stories this year. Purple top, jeans; a lot of head movement, but kindof a rollicking performance, interesting version of a Janis song, Piece of My Heart. Not sure it's a good choice for her, song seems too big for her voice, which keeps fading out. Eh, just okay. Randy loved it, impressed; Paula says some good moments; Simon says his favorite of the night. So weird... he says she let go, had fun, likeable.

Ramiele Malubay, whose name and age flashes on the screen for two seconds. Odd. She seems much more serious in interviews than on screen. Dusty Springfield song, odd outfit--like sweat pants. Husky voice, slow and controlled and dramatic start. A bit thin; You Don't Have to Say You Love Me should be belted out, she kind of slows it down and shapes it a bit much, she should've just let go. Randy says loved how you took your time, built it up, very classy, like a pro; Paula says you're a force to be reckoned with, beautiful range in your voice; Simon says he didn't like her at first, probably in Hollywood though most consistently good, and tonight you outsung everyone. Eh, I'm totally out of synch with the judges tonight; she loves all the hair and makeup, and the shoes too. She's humble, didn't expect the praise, thanks.

Syesha Mercado, who wants to sing from her soul. In black top with reddish scarf, big smile--wow, she puts on a show; totally confident, in control, high energy. Tobacco Road, she's like a pro; I'm not crazy about the song choice, but she puts on the best performance of the night, easily. Judges are totally smiling, Randy says big voice, some pitchy but overall liked it; Paula loved it, big and joyful and fun; Simon says not best best, but one of the most talented girls here, calls it terrific. She has a constant big smile, I like her.

That Irish lass Carly Smithson closes, who says she signed with a record company at 17, before it folded. I don't really like her, for whatever reason. Wow! She's like a real adult, really pure voice, pro style; in purple top and black pants. Not sure about the song choice, but very powerful. I guess I'm more impressed by it than enjoying it; as it goes on, I'm less impressed. She lacks something beyond vocal ability, not sure what. Randy says this is what the show's all about; you're sick but the best vocal of the top 24--Carly jumps in gratuitously with sick is not an excuse. Hmm, that's why I don't like her. Paula likes it too; Simon didn't like her, so much hype and expectations but song was too old fashioned, mike technique was cabaret, it was all a letdown. You didn't live up to your capabilities, not fantastic at all. Carly has no sense of humor, she forces herself to smile though.

I guess I've got Alexandrea and Joanne leaving; don't dislike either of them really; am beginning to really not like Carly.

Randy says chicks are better than the guys so far; Paula says enjoy your experience; Simon says there are 3 great guys, 3-4 great girls. Kady is just staring daggers at him, it's funny.

Four hours of performances, and nothing really sticks in my mind; the best singing so far has been from the audition clips.

Kady Milloy, 18, Houston, Texas
Syesha Mercado, 21, Sarasota, Florida
Alaina Whitaker, 16, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Brooke White, 24, Mesa, Arizona
Kristy Lee Cook, 24, Selma, Oregon
Amanda Overmeyer, 23, Mulberry, Indiana
Carly Smithson, 24, San Diego, California
Asia'h Eperson, 19, Jopplin, Missouri
Ramiele Malubay, 20, Miaramar, Florida
Amy Davis, 25, Lowell Indiana
Joanne Borgella, 25, Hoboken, New Jersey
Alexandrea Lushington, 17, Douglasville, Georgia

Top 6 predictions after Hollywood round
Kristy Lee Cook
Ramiele Malubay
Amanda Overmeyer
Asia'h Epperson
Amy Davis
Kady Malloy

American Idol's top 12 guys

Five hours of American Idol every week for the next few weeks... will it be a chore or a delight? I guess we find out tonight, with the guys. Many of whom, with the hair and all, look like the girls.

I vote for Garrett to be the first to go, just based on the way they walk out.

Randy says the guys were really original during the auditions; Paula says song choice will be key, as Simon is talking to her; he says he's looking for personality, originality, and you gotta sing well.

It all drags, then there's a quick flash of each person, with some being shown really for the first time. Given how many of these guys already have record deals/ohave performed extensively, curious how long until someone like Britney decides to come on the show, just to revitalize a career.

David Hernandez up first, the songs are all from the 60s. He grew up poor, single mom; says singing is an escape for him. I like him, sincere and a nice guy. He's out to prove Simon wrong. Wow; what an opening, Midnight Hour--clear and pure; odd cowpokeish outfit, white top and jeans. But the guy has a voice, I like the choice; a bit slick, maybe, but a good performance all around. Wish he let it go a bit more; ugh, bad last sequence, misses a note. Randy says good gospelish start, fell apart at the end, nice overall; wow, his dad is fat. Paula says tough position, but great vocals generally; Simon's got his arm on her chair the whole time. Simon says better than he thought, great start, lost the note at the end, relax a bit and be more distinctive. He admits to Ryan he's relieved, Ryan's already taking random shots at Simon.

Chikezie, who's now apparently going by one name. College student, last year he lost at end of Hollywood round; says he worked hard, back and more than ready, great to be recognized for the work he put in. I really like him, he has something that could make him go far. In retro red suit, seems a bit nervous; thin and a bit oversinging at the start; starts to get a bit more into the groove, but I'm not loving this; I Love You More Today Than Yesterday. Tone is only okay; I don't know, expected more. Randy says pretty good, but make it more fresh; Paula loves seeing him on the stage, has come a long way, lost a lot of weight, throwback; Simon hated the whole thing, his parents are booing; hates the suit--Chikezie jumps on his clothes; hates the wink, old-fashioned, corny, cheesy; this could've been something filmed 40 years ago. Chikezie is really vocal, it's not a good strategy. Talk with Ryan is a mess too, not sure I support him any more.

Ryan's hanging on the couch with Colton, he says at certain angles he looks like Ellen Degenres--hey, maybe her fans can get behind him. Theater brat, totally seems like it. David Cook next to Ryan, totally different vibe. He's up next, a bartender and musician; I like him. Has a very smooth authenticity. Doing the golden grahams song, Happy Together; but wow, good start. In vest, shirt, untied tie, jeans. Starts slow, speeds it up. A sense of humor, having fun with it; makes it rock a bit halfway through, grabs the mike stand, voice gets rough; just wails. I like it; a bit smarmyish, but high energy and good. Randy hated the start, but worked it out, liked it. Paula says it was a bit worthy; original. Simon thought it was good, a bit shouty and weird song choice but almost made it believable.

Jason Yeager, another one of these guys who's had minimal air time. A father who's a singing server; kid is pretty cute, Jason seems younger than his age. Will teens vote for a dad?! Weird yellow streak in his hair. Oh god, doing Moon River; in suit and open collar--this is super cheesy, and not very good. Bad song choice; he's a bit oblivious, like trying to spin his own little world. When in doubt, open with an up-tempo song, unless you're a girl with a huge voice. It's very loungey; Simon's gonna rip him. He can sing, but it's all so staged; man, his kid has a total 70s haircut. Randy says tough song, you can definitely sing but some pitch problems, don't lose your concentration; Paula says she did her first ballet recital to that song, he jumps in to dedicate to his grandmother; Simon says he bought his first puppy to that song, you came across old on that song, very cruise ship, lot of young people watching with a big question mark over their head, reliable but not exciting. He says afterwards vocal coaches have told him the same things. Well, why didn't he listen? Has a mature response to Ryan's question about how he takes Simon's criticism, says he'll learn and come back next week. It's sad, seems like he's trying to flirt with the voters.

Robbie Carrico, the boy band guy who toured with Britney in 2000. Kindof a big question mark, he could be good, or just a big zero. Depends on how genuine he is. One is the Loneliest Number, with bandana, gray shirt and jeans. Not a great song choice so far, his voice is getting lost a bit; some pitch problems too--not to mention the lyrics are incredibly repetitive. Eh, it's just okay, really got nothing out of it. Randy says nice one, loves the song, good version; Paula thinks it's the perfect song, you're authentic and look great, vocals weren't great but not bad; Simon says only performance so far that's even near making sense, current--not bad, struggling a bit with the authenticity, not sure if you're rock or pop. He says he loves rock, this is me. Ha, good luck going up against Cook.

Ah, David Archuleta, I like him--such a kid, and nice. Hope he sings something slow and sweet. Off-the-charts on likeability. Big smile, shirt and jeans; You Better Shop Around. Not sure about the song choice, feel like his voice gets a bit lost. But very high energy, and it's pleasant; some interesting tonal qualities. The chicks are screaming, nice power I guess. Eh, I like it; he's a good singer. Randy says brilliant, very mature, chicks scream; Paula says brave and bold, new side of you; older soul, confident, good job; Simon says when you've got it, you've got it--best performance of the night so far. He's happy, surprised by what Simon says, he says he loves singing in front of the audience--yeah, this kid is going to do very well, just keeps laughing, having a great time. Ryan says you can only vote for him, can't adopt him; he elbows Ryan, says I'm 17!

Danny Noriega, who says he's currently unemployed. Whoo-hoo! Had a lip ring last year, when he got cut early. Says last year he tried to create a little image, this year he's gonna be himself, wants it to be hot, with attitude. Wow, doing Elvis--Rock Around the Clock; tight black pants, white shirt, tie--man, he's totally animated, into it. And there's definitely something edgy about the whole thing. Great song choice; reminds me a bit of the JPL kid from a few years ago; definitely some attitude. Not a great vocal, but the most interesting performance. A bit hyperkinetic, but interesting. Randy is like what's up... loves how he's having a good time, pretty good, vocals were just okay, kind of hot; Paula says very warm, almost scalding, amazing vocals earlier in the process, likes the colors in your voice, a safer song; he plays a bit too much to the camera for me, actually. Simon says performance was verging on grotesque, at least do Elvis well, it was all hidious, you destroyed the song; it was awful. Paula defends him, likes the performer's side of him, mad vocal skills; total bickering between Simon and Paula, Randy helps Paula out, don't try to be like Elvis. He's totally a jerk, actually, goes off a bit on Simon--wow, now I totally don't like this kid, he's an arrogant brat and dumb at that.

Luke Menard, who we've never really seen, and is a carpet cleaner. Another reject from last year. Apparently you can become good in one year. He has an interesting everyman's face; ooh, perfect song choice--Everybody's Talking At Me. Mellow, lets his voice soar out; I like this; coat and shirt and jeans. An unexpectedly interesting voice, a bit compelling too; nice, good ending too. My favorite so far. Randy says pitchy, almost consistently sharp the whole way through; Paula agrees, not the best song choice, talks about his past auditions; Simon says it was forgettable. Ah, I liked it--maybe because I really like the song. You gotta stand out, says Simon. He says he felt good, thinks people will remember this tomorrow, that they'll see his comfort level.

Colton Barry, who I'm predisposed to not like, he seems like some dorky prep school kid. Says he sings the Teletubbies theme song in his head when he's nervous, and did so for hours last round. Okay.... Hmmm, good song choice, Elvis again; Suspicious Minds; in black, with bizarre tight stretchy blue pants. His voice is too weak for this song, now this is forgettable. No real color, looks like a bad Russian karaoke singer. Performance consists of stomping his feet up and down, it's almost like Steve Martin in The Jerk, a lot of spastic movement. Randy says you had a good time, great song, pretty good, rough start but worked it out; his parents look smug and dumb; Paula says it was nice, not best performance but gave it an eager and fun attempt--people aren't sure whether to clap; Simon says okay, nothing recordable there, maybe musical theater, no relevance in today's industry, a complete waste of time. Paula says hopefully you'll get more of a chance to show you're not a poor man's version of Elvis, Simon says he wishes he'd spend as much time on the voice as he does on the hair.

Garrett, hmm, there may be something interesting about this kid. Looks like Frodo a bit, big hair. Only three left; so far nothing inspiring. Says he's been watching the show forever, seems to have a sense of humor. Total midwest accent, even touch of Canadian--says his mom always told him to go big or go home... okay, given that he lives at home.... Nice kid, speaks deliberately, I like him. Goes soft and light, god, it's cheesy; so low-energy and plodding; Breaking Up is Hard to Do. It's amazingly boring, by far the least inspiring of the night; what was he thinking?! Big audience response at the end, though. Randy says glad that's over, right? Didn't do anything with it, make these things your own, some pitch problems, kindof boring; Paula says do something different, speed it up, slow tempo brings it down; Simon says boring, voice sounded whiny, look terrified, looks like you've been shut up in your bedroom for a month, verging on haunted--pale, need some fresh air.... Kid's nice, just taking it all. Not making yourself relevant, young, current. He tries to hit back at Simon a few times, but it's ineffectual. He says, as if by rote, he'll learn from it.

Whoah, Jason Castro, dreadlocks guy, playing an instrument. Hey, why not. Very mellow guy. A drummer, interesting look; very calm vibe, almost comatose. Says he's always stayed in the back his whole life, time to put himself out there, see what everybody thinks. Playing a guitar; What a Day for Daydream. Hey, he can sing; I like it, happy, gets the crowd into it, speeds it up a bit so it's not so boring. Some interesting trills in there; the most interesting performance of the night, easily. Bit of Green Day in there; needs to improve his facial expressions maybe, but I liked it. Randy likes it, some interesting things vocally, bit pitchy but it was allright; Paula says you blew me away, good song choice, effortless and joyful; Simon top two of the night--you and David have just got it, have charisma, terrific. He says it's scary up here to Ryan, totally nervous but likeable. Him and Archuleta were both a bit overwhelmed by the praise from Simon, both have a joyfulness that comes through.

Ah, the confident Aussie, Michael Johns closes. He must feel like he's a man among boys. Says he's from Australia originally, now living in Atlanta; I don't know, I generally don't like Australians and so far I don't like him, except he did sing Bohemian Rhapsody really well. He wants to be judged on his voice and passion, not his Aussieness. Fair enough. Ooh, the Doors, Light My Fire. He has some sort of star quality to him; confident, strong; good song choice. The chicks are totally screaming for him--he's playing it up too, good performer. I don't know, not doing it for me--not my favorite song, and I still think he's a bit purposeful, but not bad. Randy says he loved him from day one, a true legend/rock performer, that was hot; Paula says good way to end, liked it; Simon says the most consistent contestant so far, a bit overtrying but natural charisma of a lead singer, you've just got it. Ah, the Brits and the Aussies, got each others' back. He thanks the judges, it's kindof a dumb thing to say.

So I guess I think Colton and Garrett are gone. An uninspiring start for the guys; hope the women are better.

Jason Castro, Rockwell, Texas
Luke Menard, 29, Crawfordville, Indiana
David Cook, 25, Blue Springs, Missouri
David Archuleta, 17, Murray, Utah
Michael Johns, 29, Atlanta, Georgia
David Hernandez, 24, Glendale, Arizona
Danny Noriega, 18, Azusa, California
Robbie Carrico, 26, Melbourne, Florida
Chikezie, 22, Inglewood, California
Jason Yeager, 28, Grand Praire, Texas
Colton Berry, 18, Stanton, Virginia
Garrett Haley, 17, Elida, Ohio

Top 6 predictions after Hollywood round
David Archuleta
Danny Noriega
Michael Johns
Chikezie Eze
David Hernandez
David Cook

Obama strides past Wisconsin win

Tonight's the night Barack Obama started acting like the Democratic nominee for president.

It's customary for candidates to coordinate their speech times, so they don't step on each other. Tonight, Obama started speaking a few minutes into Hillary Clinton's speech.

He didn't care--and, on cue, FOX News and MSNBC and CNN cut her off--you could actually hear someone on FOX yelling CUT TO HIM NOW.

His crowd in Houston was huge and vocal; it filled the home of the Houston Rockets, which seats 19,000. (The Houston Chronicle's live blog said people posted ads on Craigslist saying they'd pay up to $75; one add offered a ticket for $200). Also from the Chron's blog:

Security tells us that Obama is in the building, but that he might venture outside the greet the supporters who couldn't inside the crowded arena.

Her crowd in Ohio was much smaller and much quieter; she spoke in a high school arena.

The Times live blog mentions his cutting in 'her time' as a possible breach of etiquettte; my thought is if one candidate has 19,000 waiting for them to speak, and another has a few hundred, candidate B had better make sure she gets it right.

Obama mentioned Wisconsin right off the top, which he won by his customary big margin; she plowed ahead as if she was in a time warp.

He was his usual eloquent, authentic self. She tried out another new slogan (Solutions!) and sounded strained.

His crowd was wonderfully diverse. Hers was all white, and mainly women.

He changed up his stump speech, adding a section about how real change requires more than big rallies, rousing speeches, good websites. We don't lack good ideas--"the problem is Washington is a place where good ideas go to die."

It's amazing that he's blowing Clinton out, and most people don't even know he doesn't take any money from lobbyists or PACs, and she does.

Interesting, Obama said as aware as he is that he's not the perfect vessel, he's running because he thinks he can really change things. Haven't heard that line before.

Ah, mentions lobbyists haven't funded his campaign; given that everyone's carried his speech in full so far, this is great publicity you can't buy. Poor Clinton only got a few minutes.

Funny, Houston Chronicle's blog has just discovered that Obama speaks without a teleprompter.

On a side note, I've been watching a lot of Fox News the last few weeks--they're surprisingly good, a bit of a bias but in general totally professional. Curious given how they're by far the biggest cable news network how many republicans are coming over to Obama courtesy of Fox News' extensive coverage of Obama's speeches, and campaign.

All the Clinton supporters complaining about media bias should think long and hard about whether the lack of negative coverage reflects reality. The electorate so far certainly seem to think so.

As he speaks, his lead in Wisconsin is growing, it's now up to 13%. As I wrote after Super Tuesday, Clinton can't recover from a long string of big losses and needed to have a huge lead coming out of California et al. I wrote at the beginning of this month that Obama was going to win at least 9 of the next 10 states (I had no opinion on Maine).

I don't think the Clinton campaign believed it would happen; they've now got two weeks to let the shock settle in, and try to figure out how they can win every one of the remaining states by at least 60%.

Good luck; I think Obama will win easily three states on March 4 (Texas, Rhode Island, Vermont), and has a shot at winning Ohio too.

The election's been over for a few weeks now; I think most Americans are beginning to realize it.

Ah, my favorite lines from his stump speech--he doesn't just want to end the war in Iraq, he wants to end the mindset that got us into it. Followed by he wants to meet not just with our friends, but also our enemies.

I don't agree totally with this--you need someone coherent on the other side to negotiate with, who has the power to deliver--but at least he's thinking differently.

He mentions Darfur, which is smart, given how many people from Africa live in Houston (mainly Nigeria). I also like it when he mentions he's an ex-constitutional law professor; he's going to get a lot of libertarian/Ron Paul-type votes in November, I think.

One of the biggest applause lines of the night: The last thing we need is the same old folks doing the same old things making the same old mistakes. We can only change if we bring new people into the government, if we stop fighting with Republicans and form a working majority.

Ah, brings up John McCain, but briefly; McCain earlier dwelled on Obama. Some new lines of emphasis tonight, all focused around people criticizing him for being naive/inexperienced.

The networks must have numbers that show people watch while Obama's speaking; they've stayed with pretty much his entire speech ever election night since Super Tuesday. Or maybe this is just when everyone's taking their dinner breaks.

Obama is incredibly strategic; he's building these huge volunteer organizations in each state as it comes up, spending a ton of money on grassroots organizing--but not just so he can win the caucuses and primaries. He's doing it so he has a network he can tap into for the general election; and beyond. He wants to build up the Democratic party, but also build up support so after he's elected he can get lawmakers to sign on to his likely fundamental policy shifts. His change is so not just rhetoric; it's concrete and structural and is going to be a mighty force for at least the next decade.

I'm curious if the Clinton campaign will complain about all the coverage Obama gets; not sure how she can compete against this. McCain, too. It's astonishing, actually--it's been all Obama for exactly 45 minutes, for essentially his stump speech.

The highly-intuitive Keith Olbermann mentions how it seems like tonight was the first pitch of the general election game against McCain. CNN's saying the same, as they promise to show some of Clinton's speech on tape delay--they note she didn't even mention Wisconsin or congratulate Obama or thank the voters in her speech.