Rahm's drive

An interesting if possibly over-long profile by the Times' Matt Bai, "Taking the Hill," illuminates President Obama's strategy for pushing comprehensive health care reform through Congress.

Of course it's the personalitites that jump through, most notably Rahm Emanuel; it seems like there's an endless supply of stories about him, and the piece does its part to burnish the legend:

OBAMA’S AGGRESSIVE COURTSHIP of Congress is plotted and directed by Emanuel, who despite his legendary personality flaws — his penchant for profane mockery is now so well documented that you sometimes have the sense he’s cursing at you so as not to disappoint — is freakishly well suited to the job. Emanuel served as a senior aide in Clinton’s White House before running for Congress and then overseeing the Democrats’ successful drive to take back the House, which means he is that rare politician who feels equally at home on both ends of the avenue. “Rahm is family to all of us,” Nancy Pelosi, the House speaker, told me recently. ...

When I asked Emanuel if he would prefer that the president have someone around while negotiating with individual lawmakers, he smiled tightly. “I prefer whatever he prefers,” the chief of staff said, sounding uncharacteristically diplomatic.

Obama's gonna get health care reform passed; some network should document it all, it'd make a heck of a movie or TV series.

Christianity gone wrong

It's an art form to write a good web headline and teaser that gets someone to click and read a story they might not otherwise think they have an interest in. The Washington Post has a great example: "How the Faithful Justify Torture," The more you go to church, the more you approve of torture.

The essay, by Professor Susan Brooks Thistlethwaite, is interesting:

The more often you go to church, the more you approve of torture. This is a troubling finding of a new survey by the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. Shouldn't it be the opposite? After all, who would Jesus torture? Since Jesus wouldn't even let Peter use a sword and defend him from arrest, it would seem that those who follow Jesus would strenuously oppose the violence of torture. But, not so in America today.

Instead, more than half of people who attend worship at least once a week, or 54%, said that using torture on suspected terrorists was "often" or "sometimes" justified. White evangelical Protestants were the church-going group most likely to approve of torture. By contrast, those who are unaffiliated with a religious organization and didn't attend worship were most opposed to torture -- only 42% of those people approved of using torture.

One possible way to interpret this extraordinary Pew data is cultural. White evangelical Protestants tend to be culturally conservative and they make up a large percentage of the so-called Republican "base". Does the approval of torture by this group demonstrate their continuing support for the previous administration? That may be.

But I think it is possible, even likely, that this finding has a theological root. The UN Convention Against Torture defines torture as "any act by which severe pain or suffering, whether physical or mental, is intentionally inflicted on a person..." White Evangelical theology bases its view of Christian salvation on the severe pain and suffering undergone by Jesus in his flogging and crucifixion by the Romans. This is called the "penal theory of the atonement"--that is, the way Jesus paid for our sins is by this extreme torture inflicted on him.

I'm not sure I agree that Christians are okay with torture because Jesus was tortured--but I think it's a pretty big problem that Christianity seems to have evolved to a point where its staunchest adherents don't think it gets in the way of supporting torture.

That's kind of a big tent, by any measure; with some problematic tent poles.

I'm curious if the very Christians who are so eager to flog Islam, regardless of their degree of knowledge or sincerity, will look in the mirror.

Binghamton tragedy, doubled

There's an astonishing response by the Binghamton chief of police, and city DA, after this week's massacre.

The first 911 calls came in at 10:30 a.m., Police Chief Joseph Zikuski said at a news conference. The callers spoke broken English, and it took dispatchers two minutes to sort out what was happening, he said.

The first patrol cars arrived at 10:33 a.m.

Officers were on the scene five minutes before a wounded receptionist called police to report a gunman in the building, Zikuski said. Police had earlier said it was that call that brought them to the immigration center.

A SWAT team entered the building 43 minutes after the first call to police.

When police got there, the gunfire had stopped, so they believed there was no ''active gunman'' in the center and decided to wait for the SWAT team to arrive, Zikuski said.

He compared the scene with the 1999 Columbine High School shooting in Colorado, in which 15 people died, including the two teenage gunmen.

''At Columbine, there were numerous shots ringing out and law enforcement stood by,'' he said. ''I was quite frankly horrified when I knew that.''

Zikuski said his officers would have gone into the building if shots had still been flying.

''If you arrive on the scene -- the first two to four guys -- and there's an active shooter, they enter,'' he said.

Pressed on why police didn't go into building, Zikuski said information they were getting from the receptionist was still uncertain enough to warrant caution.

''He was dead. We didn't know it,'' Zikuski said. ''If there's a bunch of cops laying on the floor shot trying to rescue somebody else, it's not going to help anybody.''

When reporters repeated the line of questioning, Mollen jumped in to defend the police chief.

''I don't think it's fair to ask Chief Zikuski to respond to hypotheticals,'' he said, adding that there would be a full review and report on the shooting, including the police response.

"If there's a bunch of cops laying on the floor shot trying to rescue somebody else, it's not going to help anybody."

For cops to wait outside a building because they don't hear gunshots, not knowing if people are bleeding to death or if a shooter is still on the loose, is ridiculous.

It's precisely the job of cops to risk their lives every day trying to rescue other. That's why we honor them.

Michelle Obama vs. Diana vs. Jackie

I never understood why people were gaga over Diana; maybe because I have no conception of nor do I care about how different she was from past British royalty.

For me, that always seemed more a deficiency in her predecessors than any notable distinction in her.

Besides which, Diana always seemed so much more about herself, her clothes, her loveless marriage, then any sort of real issues.

Unlike Michelle Obama, as the Guardian's Carole Cadwalladr pointed out this week:

There was a strange stillness last week in Islington's Elizabeth Garrett Anderson Language College on the last day of term. It wasn't just that the school had finished a day early and it was a training day for staff and a revision day for pupils soon to take their GCSEs. Nor even that the sun had finally decided to shine for the start of the Easter holidays.

It was that, 24 hours earlier, an event so surprising and extraordinary had happened in this very ordinary-looking London school that the few people milling around its lobby had the air of having experienced some freak natural phenomenon - a hurricane, perhaps, or a tidal wave or, as actually happened, a visit by the first lady of the United States, Michelle Obama.

At the culmination of the Obamas' first visit to Britain, she visited the school on Thursday and, the next day, staff and students all seemed to be suffering some sort of post-traumatic international celebrity icon syndrome. In the hallway, I met Nuria Afonso, 15, and Shereka Phipps, 15, both wearing the dazed expressions of people who still can't quite believe what has just happened.

"She hugged us!" said Nuria. "Can you believe that? She. Hugged. Us! It was amazing. Amazing." ...

Newspapers on both sides of the Atlantic endlessly commented on her clothes, her shoes, her fashion choices, the "controversial" blue plaid cardigan that she wore to visit the school, even though the only remotely "controversial" aspect of it was that certain female, waspish fashion writers decided not to like it and, which, according to Google, has so far drawn 1,925 news articles all its own, including one from the Huffington Post, which gave it the inevitable moniker "Argyle-gate".

And yet, what the fashion commentators nearly missed was that the visit to the school not only produced the most emotional moments of her entire visit, but that the speech was also a profoundly moving, very personal statement of her political purpose and the new role that she is still in the process of creating as the president's wife.

It was the only speech she made during her trip, and the school had, apparently, been deliberately chosen: girls-only, inner-city, its pupils, of whom 20% are the children of refugees or asylum seekers, speak a total of 55 different languages and 92% of whom are from a black or minority background. It was her first speech, she pointed out, as first lady on a foreign visit; she mentioned it several times, in fact, as if she was having problems believing it herself. And then, carefully, using personal stories and anecdotes, she drew parallels between her life and those of the girls in front of her, at times appearing close to tears.

"I want you to know that we have very much in common. For nothing in my life's path would have predicted that I would be standing here as the first lady of the United States of America. There was nothing in my story that would land me here. I wasn't raised with wealth or resources of any social standing to speak of...

"If you want to know the reason why I'm standing here, it's because of education. I never cut class. Sorry I don't know if anybody here is cutting class. I never did. I loved getting As. I liked being smart. I loved being on time. I loved getting my work done. I thought being smart was cooler than anything in the world." ...

Both Nuria and Shereka closely followed the US presidential election and said that, even before her visit, Michelle Obama had inspired them both, girls born thousands of miles away, personally.

"You can relate to her story. She said, 'I'm a working-class girl.' And more or less all of us are working-class. She made it. And it made me think: if she can do it, so can I."

For a lesson in how to empower young women, you could do no better than to listen to Michelle Obama's speech in its entirety. The news bulletins picked up its highlights, the point where, very close to tears, she said: "When I look at a performance like this, it just reminds me that there are diamonds like this all over the world. All of you are jewels. You are precious and you touch my heart. And it's important for the world to know that there are wonderful girls like you all over the world." ...

But for all the hugs, Michelle Obama is no Diana and it was her visit to the school, and more particularly the speech that she delivered there, that thwarted the attempt by the Anglo-American press to reduce her Democratic politics and feminist principles into nothing more than a fashion cypher whose sole purpose is to have her clothing choices beatified by their mutual consent.

She's as much an ideologue as her husband and, while Barack Obama is having to make hard choices in an ever-worsening economic climate, what the Elizabeth Garrett Anderson speech demonstrated is how Michelle Obama has become the political yin to his yang; the up to his down.

Really, the dumbing-down of our society occurs when blogs like the Huffington Post and papers like the Washington Post choose to feature breathless pieces on Michelle Obama's outfits or lack thereof, rather than pay real attention to what she says and does while wearing clothes.

One of the great things about the Obamas is how focused they are on substance; aware of style and symbols, but always more interested in reality.

I think it's slowly starting to dawn on people around the world that they're a once-in-a-lifetime political phenomenon, not because of the glitz or celebrity-like coverage, but because of who they really are.

They're no Kennedys--they're much better.

AP photo

Obama's America vs. Old Europe

A.A. Gill has a pitch-perfect piece in the Times that captures what President Obama's visit to Europe has been all about.

IT’S invariably the little things, the unconsidered, off the cuff, in passing, unrehearsed things that snag our attention, and seem to be telling of the bigger things. In the case of Barack Obama’s first visit to London and the Group of 20 conference to save the endangered habitat of bankers and real estate salesmen, it was the handshake with the bobby that seemed to be emblematic. In a forest of waving palms, this handshake meant more.

As the president stepped up to 10 Downing Street, he leant over, made eye contact, said something courteous, and shook the hand of the police officer standing guard. There’s always a police officer there; he is a tourist logo in his ridiculous helmet. He tells you that this is London, and the late 19th century. No one has ever shaken the hand of the policeman before, and like everyone else who has his palm touched by Barack Obama, he was visibly transported and briefly forgot himself. He offered the hand to Gordon Brown, the prime minister, who was scuttling behind.

It was ignored. He was left empty-handed. It isn’t that Mr. Brown snubbed the police officer; he just didn’t see him. To a British politician, a police officer is as invisible as the railings.

But the rest of us noticed. Because in this country that still feels the class system like a phantom limb, being overtly kind to servants is the very height of manners, the mark of true nobility. Being nice to the staff is second only to being nice to dogs as a pinnacle of civilization. Remember: a butler’s not just for Christmas. Apparently, the Obamas searched every cupboard and closet in Downing Street to personally thank all the servants for looking after them. That’s classlessly classy. ...

The Obamas were likely also surprised at how black the old white colonial country is. Ethnic diversity is shamelessly and embarrassingly pushed to the front of every publicity shot. Michelle Obama went to a girls school where a gospel song was performed and where she made a surprisingly moving speech. All the world leaders’ wives are herded together in cultural outings of excruciatingly bland probity, but Mrs. Obama rose above it, and seemed to really inspire this group of young girls. It was noticed. The rest of the women grinned and clutched their handbags, apparently wondering when they could get away to Harrods.

Reading into Obama

One of the worst-headlined Times article of all time, "Obama Calls on Security Council to Punish North" -- it's about President Barack Obama's comments about North Korea's rocket launch today during his speech in Prague -- has a great kicker from one of the thousands of Czechs in the crowd.

Not all were effusive about Mr. Obama’s appearance. Miloslava Krulova, 76, who worked in a bank before she retired, said she was worried that Mr. Obama’s disarmament drive could prove detrimental to global peace.

“I came here today because I admire Obama’s intelligence. He is also a good husband and father. But I am skeptical of his words because trying to get the world to disarm might have the opposite effect.” Noting the throngs of mesmerized youth, she added: “I was shocked that I seemed to be the only elderly lady here. Maybe people of my generation are afraid, that they might not understand Obama and his policies.”

I love how she says he's a "good husband and father"!

American Idol's final semifinal

It's the final semifinal for American Idol; watching it on tape delay the next day.

Von Smith up first, no real opinion about him so far -- nothing memorable, except Simon saying his Hollywood song choice was "indulgent nonsense." He seems happy just to be here, so not sure how he'll do. Ugh, song right away is bad, totally wrong for his voice; Marvin Gaye's "You're All I Need." Hmm, as it goes on, a bit better; his voice is still too thin for this, but he's really into it, and is performing it well. I'm liking this a lot more than I thought I would.

Randy says a hot performance, you're finding yourself here. Kara says you seem to know what you're doing out there, it had meaning. Paula says a memorable first, calls him a seasoned showman. Simon says you remind me of Clay Aiken, "spicier" says Paula. "You look appalling, but actually you sang quite well." I like him, hope people remember him by the end of this. "Finally, to have done something right, somewhat, is amazing," he says.

Taylor Vaifanua, doing "I've Got You," interesting dress--white and black on top, grayish skirt, high, high black boots. Ugh, not good; bad choice, song doesn't fit her voice, it's jerky and just doesn't build to anything. She can definitely sing, belts out the chorus; just not crazy about the choice. Outfit was cool, though.

She's emotional as the judges start talking to her, Kara wanted more of her personality in her song, performance was a bit cold. She's exactly right; there was distance there, unlike in Von's. Paula says you sang this already in Hollywood, why not do something new. Simon makes fun of Kara's "wanna see what it's like to go shopping with you," then says generic, not memorable, bland. Don't try to be older than 17. Randy says great voice, but you didn't tell us anything special about you.

Alex Wagner-Trugman up next, he talks to Ryan, says he's been reading people think he's dorky, so he's been trying to go to the gym to be more like Simon. He's hilarious. In the clip Randy calls him "Joe Cocker," Simon says more like "cocker spaniel." Then Simon says his voice is a 3, Alex says to the camera, "I can only assume that's on a scale of 3."

Doing "I Guess That's Why They Call it the Blues," he's really got a great personality. Not the greatest singer, but sincere, and totally likeable. A weird song choice vocally, guess he was going for the whole thematic thing. Kicks away the mike stand, it's great, actually. I really like him.

Lots of girls screaming, Paula says you certainly are the showman as he says he didn't mean to knock over the stand. Simon laughs at him, "you're like a hamster trying to be a tiger," "ridiculous growling," calls it "a bit stupid." Randy says a bit crazy in a "buck-wild style kind of way," didn't like the vocals tonight, song kind of screamed. "At least you do you," says Kara, as the audience screams.

He's really nice talking to Ryan, "I was just trying to have fun, throughout this whole process we sometimes forget about that." Yup, he's now officially my favorite contestant of this season.

Arianna Afsar doing ABBA, first time ever on Idol Ryan says. Says she's glad during Hollywood they didn't say anything about her being cute or anything, after beforehand that's all they said. I like her because of that.

"The Winner Takes It All," tricky pick, ABBA's version is so iconic. She's trying to put her own stamp on it, not that great at the start; cool blue dress though. Out of tune, languid performance. I really wanted to like her, she's just butchering this song though. It may be the worst thing this year, she's totally off-key and is trying to make it too weird. Has a big voice, but ugh, so out of tune. Even her parents looked pained.

"Absolutely terrible in most parts," says Simon, song was way too big for you, dreary arrangement, awful. Randy says just not good, Kara says you were like a beam of sunshine, but dark and depressing tonight; "be young, touch people." You know, Kara is really right on with some of her comments. Paula says you should've just stuck to the melody.

Ryan says "you wanted to be un-buttoned," makes me laugh. So far this is my favorite show of the season, everyone's been really likeable if not great at singing.

Back with Ju'not Joyner, who I really like from before. Doing "Hey There, Delilah," again, which from Hollywood snippet may have been my single favorite performance of the year. Slows it way down, all in black with a pair of handcuffs off his belt?! It's soulful, electrifying. So smooth, passionate; nice vocal range. Very still during the performance. My favorite vocal of the night, although no real personality; and I may actually have liked the Hollywood snippet better.

Randy likes how he pulled back, good interpretation. Kara liked his fluid, smooth spin on the song, next time just bust it out, go for it, "I know you got ridiculous pipes," he says "that's what's up." Paula says same song, but you changed it up, nice vocal. Simon says that was better than I thought it was going to be, wish you'd stripped it down, you could've had a moment, a bit safe but you're nervous and I know how much this means to you. Simon's right, this could've been amazing, but it was just good.

Ju'not explains he had to take a cortisone shot, had reaction to all the smog out in Hollywood he says.

Kristen McNamara, who's actually a karaoke host?! She seems a bit dumb; they revisit the drama from Hollywood, again portraying her as a victim of a mad black woman -- when actually a lot of that was her fault. Big, bold, red dress; nice smoky country voice, actually. A bit subdued rendition of "Give Me One Reason," and it's just the same thing the whole song through, getting boring. Ugh by the end; just nothing memorable, not a great voice. And no personality.

Kara actually says you are a great singer, but not a great pick; should've done something more rock-edge. Paula with the great memory says you sang a Kelly Clarkson song in Hollywood, should've done something more like that, less safe. Paula is in some ways the most professional of all of them, she remembers everything and the show is actually really important to her. Simon says you don't seem quite comfortable, not sure quite who you are. Randy dittos, easy song but you tried to do too much, karaoke thing. Up close she has too much makeup on, looks a bit haggard.

Nathaniel Marshall, who could totally flame-out or be really good. I've hated him, liked him, just hopes he does his best; wants us to see "goofy, good-natured, humble Nate," a great video intro. Doing "I Will Do Anything for Love," claims nobody's ever done it before on the show, I'm not so sure.

Oh my god, it's a crazy slowed-down, light jazz version, so weird. Crazy spiked hair, weird tattoos or something all over his body. This is like a bad parody, it's not good.

"I think you probably would," quips Simon at the end. Most people will think it was verging on excruciating, almost uncomfortable, and a weird song choice. At least people will remember you. Randy says curious about the song choice, turns out he and his mom danced around to it. Randy's not sure what kind of record he could make, "a keep fit video," says Simon. Kara says if you wanna be taken seriously, pick something that shows your good voice. They talk to his grandmother, then Paula says, "not to be the historian here," but in Hollywood you were cool, bold and relevant. But this song was more the Boy George version, took away your coolness. Hmm, good comment from Paula.

Ryan brings Nate over to Simon to "make him feel comfortable," it's so forced, he takes off his headband for him to put on, Simon keeps shaking his finger at Ryan.

Felicia Barton next, who's the fill-in for the one who got DQed. I like her based on the interview, really sweet. "No One," by Alicia Keys, hope she does well. All in black, shiny top; a bit uncomforable/nervousish at the start. But very passionate, and she can totally sing. Not really connecting with the audience for some reason; her style is a bit jerky, and weird, she's so intense. A bit off-key too.

Paula praises her in general terms, nothing about the song at all. Simon liked the first part more, a bit copycat, not as enthused as Paula. Randy says great voice, go with your different tone. Kara says great look, attitude, presence, a few problems with some of the notes, noticed you though.

Scott MacIntyre, who gets shrieks during his video. Oh no, actually doing "Mandolin Rain," so cheesy, but a great melody. He's sitting, mostly in black. A brilliant pick, I think, fits his tone so well; you can see his experience performing and singing coming through. It's a bit too smooth for me, he's also over-singing; it's okay, but not great.

Randy says not great vocal, but good story; Kara totally sells out, says who cares about the vocal, your passion goes through; Paula says nothing really. Simon didn't like the song, says he's growing on him though, you're starting to believe in himself. There are better singers, you're memorable, will be amazed if you don't sail through. I'm not really a big fan, he keeps talking about how he can't wait to get back on the piano, that's when he'll really shine. Gets Ryan to give him a high five.

Randy plays Ryan as they come back, Kendall Beard up next. I think she could be a wild card, has a great look, that traditional Southern girl demographic. Doing "This One if For the Girls," great yellow scrunchy dress. I like her passion; she looks old, all dolled-up; very sincere song choice. Not a great voice, lost at times. Gets better as it goes on, I just like her even though she's out of tune.

Kara starts with the positives, big personality and all that; but flat. Paula says best outfit of the night, she says her mom put it together; calls her adorable. Simon says you did the right thing tonight, you are what you are. A bit kind of shrilly, says Simon, not a great choice. Randy says not great vocally, bit of nerves, not bad.

Jorge Nunez, says the judges said he needed to work on his accent, so he did. I like him, doing "Don't Let the Song Go Down on Me." Classic sportcoat/jeans look. Nice voice, slow and controlled, very sincere. Wow, great song choice; totally soulful; big voice too. So passionate; purely vocally not great maybe, but performance-wise and overall, hard not to keep watching.

Paula says you've worked so hard on your accent, sounded so good, just wants to squeeze him. Simon says we were wrong to say you shouldn't sing with an accent, why not; be who you are, you're a very, very good singer. "Actually, I don't think I have an accent, but if you think I do," he says. Not the perfect vocal says Randy, but really good. Kara says you're a singer, born to sing, you have that gift of touching people. He starts crying, "this is so amazing to me." Wow, he just sealed up a spot in the finals. The audience loves him, it's really a very special moment, he has a huge smile, is so obviously happy. This is what Idol is all about.

Critic's favorite Lil Rounds is last, I totally like her. "Be Without You," great yellow top to her black dress. Man, she is great; just a pro from the get-go, really authentic and comfortable. Totally in control, smooth. The other contestants are totally into it. She's on a different level than everyone else tonight, yo. Audience goes nuts at the end.

"Brilliant," says Simon, my favorite by a mile. Too much like the original, but you have great, great prospects. Randy loved it, great vocals and you know who you are. Kara says you're a powerhouse, you are great, have been yourself the whole time. Paula calls her first-class, we're going to see you for many more little rounds.

It's been a great semifinals, the best of the the three. Not merely vocally-wise, just interesting people giving good performances.

Alex Wagner-Trugman
Jorge Nunez
Lil Rounds
Ju'not Joyner
Von Smith
Kendall Beard
Scott MacIntyre
Felicia Barton
Arianna Afsar
Taylor Vaifanua
Nathaniel Marshall
Kristen McNamara

Slumdog Millionaire's night at the Oscars (with some NASCAR too)

-And the winner is... Slumdog Millionaire! A bunch of people come up on stage, after some initial hesitation, including the kids from the slum. Wow, what great television, the cute little kid is right up behind the podium. Christian Colson, producer, speaks for them all--"when we started out we had no stars, we had no power or muscle... but we had a script that inspired mad love."

A movie that almost went straight to DVD... doesn't exactly inspire confidence in Hollywood's ability to tell good stories, especially when the stories aren't filled with the same-old characters and faces.

And that's it, awards are all given out, 5 minutes shy of the clock striking midnight. Only appropriate that in the year of Barack Obama "Slumdog Millionaire" wins -- and of course, there is a connection.

Interesting, the montage at the end over credits is of upcoming releases; a great idea; makes me wish summer would hurry up and get here.

-Stephen Spielberg comes out, solo, to introduce a montage of past best pictures alongside this year's nominees. Wow, they do something really clever, using past best pictures intercut with clips from each of this year's nominees, like they're using documentary footage. Hardest with Slumdog.

-Best actor is next. The presenters get the standing O, all the old lions are there. I hope Frank Langella wins for Frost/Nixon, I saw him on stage and he was great. Robert De Niro says, "being a movie star can get in the way of acting; but not for Sean Penn." It's a great line, and captures Penn exactly--he wants to make films, not be a star.

Sean Penn wins, to big applause. Speech should be interesting. "You commie, homo-loving sons of guns!" is how he starts. At the end he tells those who voted for the ban on gay marriage to sit and reflect on their great shame and those of their kids and grandkids if they continue in that way....

"I'm very proud to live in a country that's willing to elect an elegant man president," and a country that in all it's toughness creates the kind of artists it does, with a shout-out to Mickey Rourke, "who is my brother."

-Wow, Sophia Loren, among others, on stage to present best Actress. They all get a standing ovation, as well they should. Loren looks regal. I like this personalized presentation where each nominee gets a little speech from a previous winner; can be a bit cheesy and over-the-top, but is also just interesting to watch.

Loren does Meryl Streep; she doesn't look very good, too made up and too much surgery; but you have to keep watching, she has presence. Nicole Kidman does Angelina Jolie, who's wearing emeralds apparently.

And Kate Winslet wins, which is cool; I like how she's grown over the years. It's her first win after 6 nominations. Tells her dad to whistle so she can see where he's sitting, and he does, to loud applause; it's a great moment.

Thanks a lot of people, is a pro at this; but the emotion shows through, a little shriek at the end even.

-Reese Witherspoon oddly enough is presenting the Best Director award. Man, hope Danny Boyle wins, very curious to hear him speak. And he does win, jumps up and down on stage, in the spirit of Tigger he says. Thanks his kids and his wife, his dad and sister, bunch of execs; thanks the guy who choreographed the dance at the end of the film who was left off the film's credits.

And thanks Mumbai, "you dwarf even this guy," referring to Oscar. 7 for Slumdog.

-Queen Latifa sings "I'll Be Seeing You" as they roll the notable deaths from the year; ah, how times do change, she has a pretty good voice for this. Hate how they show the people on screens inside the auditorium, it's such a self-conscious technique. And you can barely see some of the names as the camera moves around.

Charlton Heston doesn't seem to get either extra time or applause, which is a crime given his place in Hollywood history; Paul Newman appropriately does, they end with him. Heath Ledger was in there I guess, I didn't notice.

-Japanese movie wins best foreign language film, Departures. "I am here because of films... and we will be back, I hope," says director Yojiro Takita.

-Wow, a bunch of Indian dancers all in pink run up on stage to perform the first of two original songs from Slumdog, Rahman takes the mike and sings. It's an amazingly powerful and important moment. Wall-E's song is next, sung by John Legend; it's pretty cool too, with African dancers and chorus. Curious what the majority of white Americans who voted for John McCain are thinking and saying watching all this.

They sing the second Slumdog song; it just busts out through the stage, as John Legend and Rahman mesh their songs into a duet.

And the winner is... Jai Ho! 6 for Slumdog tonight, how great is that. Rahman's just been on stage continuously for the last 10 mintues. Thanks everyone from Mumbai, as an emotional Danny Boyle looks on; "all my life I've had a choice between hate and love -- I chose love, and here I am."

L.A. Times' blog, of course, is still writing about Bob Hope..... Classy Hugh Jackman gives the performers another hand.

-Alicia Keys looks resplendent in a purple gown, sounds regal in reading the nominees--properly pronouncing A.R. Rahman--for best original score. And he wins! 5 for Slumdog. He's one of my favorite composers today; says God is great at the end.

-Eddie Murphy presents a special humanitarian award to Jerry Lewis, whose work with the muscular dystrophy telethon will outlive everything everyone in the audience tonight has ever done. He comes out to a standing ovation; really, who cares about Heath, this should be the signature moment from tonight. What a great guy; gives a heartfelt speech, classy words from a throwback to another era.

-My god, 10:30 already and we haven't even gotten to the big 6 yet. "Slum dog Millionaire" wins again, its fourth, for Film Editing. Chris Dickens says he had a great time working on this film; and thanks his sisters -- Sally, Allie, Lizzy.

-Best Sound Editing, "Slumdog Millionaire" is up for it, "Dark Knight" wins. Hmm, interesting. Sound Mixing, "Slumdog Millionaire" wins for this. Nice to see some non-white faces speaking; Resul Pookutty. Is clearly overwhelmed, mentions the two others up there with him. Dedicates it to India, "sincere and deepest gratitude" to those he worked with on the film, and all the sound mixers.

-They do a super-long montage of, no kidding, car crashes and chases. Really, it's just pointless. "Curious Case of Benjamin Button" wins for best Visual Effects, beating out "Dark Knight." Uh, okay. Cause making one guy seem old is more impressive than creating Gotham.

-"Smile Pinki" wins best documentary short, the filmmaker Megan Mylan, all in red, seems like a real person, is all out of breath after running up there. I like her right away; the film is about kids with cleft lips, she talks about the subjects of her film, including Pinki Kumari.

-Documentary filmmakers get a video montage where they talk to the camera, which is appropriate. Hmm, the video was made by Albert Maisles, Bill Maher tells us afterwards. Documentaries are our "windows to the world" Maher tells us, while promoting his own; hmm, odd thing to say, considering theoretically we live in the world--why would we only see it when framed through small holes cut by others?

"Man on Wire" wins, which is great, since I actually saw and liked it. And up runs Philippe Petit, who the film's about; the shortest speech in Oscars history "Yesss." Then he keeps on talking, amkes a coin disappear, balances the Oscar on his chin, makes it bow; the man's frenetic, and absolutely unique.

-The winner of Heath Ledger's award, Best Supporting Actor, is about to be revealed. I didn't see the film so no idea how much of this is sentiment, but he wins, of course. Everyone stands as his parents and sister come up. Hmmm, no wife? Let's see if they dedicate it to the fire victims in Australia.

Audience is pitch-quiet as his dad thanks people. It's a classy speech by the dad, Kim; now his mom says they're choosing to celebrate; and his sister says they accept the award on behalf of his daughter.

It could've been a moment for the ages--his death reminds us of the death of hundeds in Australia... but nothing like that.

-Somehow Cuba Gooding Jr. is allowed back on stage, makes fun of Robert Downey Jr. for playing Tropic Thunder in blackface.

-Matt Kenseth takes the Auto Club 500, 3rd driver in history to win Daytona and the next race. Nice job.

-4 to go, Gordon's right front tire is smoking announcers say. They've been on top of that for a while; NASCAR announcers are great, entertaining and knowledgable.

-6 laps to go, Kenseth and Gordon are about to lap some of the slower-cars, again....

-10 laps to go, Kenseth's lead looks to have expanded even more. Announcers think Gordon has one more run in it, Busch now 6 seconds back. Now just hope some idiot back in the pack doesn't crash for nothing.

-Oscars are doing some idiot musical spoof with Jackman and Beyonce, so I'm still watching NASCAR.

-Kenseth and Gordon are waaaay out in front of the rest of the pack, 3.5 seconds ahead of Busch. 19 laps to go. Wow, with 15 to go Kenseth has really put down the hammer, his lead is up.

-Toyland wins best live action short, continuing the well-known rule that if you wanna win an Oscar, make something about the Holocaust. Wow, the director says he spent "4 years of my life on this 14 minute movie."

-There's some sort of skit with white stoner guys making fun of a bunch of films, it's probably funny to certain frat boys but kindof weird given that the films are all up for Best Picture. It goes on waaaay too long and is just dumb; yup, they have time for this, but cut off Oscar winners halfway through their speeches.

-Oscars take a second to thank the winners of the Academy's Scientific and Technical awards, handed out two weeks ago without TV coverage.

-36 laps to go, still under yello; Kyle Busch trying to win his third race of the weekend, which would be historic, Matt Kenseth leading though, after taking Daytona; folowed by Jeff Gordon. Lots of big names in the top 10....

-Anthony Dod Mantle wins best cinematography for Slum Dog Millionaire; it was shot really well, he takes a wry British shot at Natalie and Ben, "I found that really inspiring". The audience at least has stopped laughing. I like Mantle, seems like a normal guy; thanks his "ma and pa".

-Whoah, Natalie Portman comes out with a Phoenixish Ben Stiller, with the wild hair and crazy beard and shades. She looks great in a purple dress. It totally detracts from the cinematography intro, the audience is just cackling. "You look like you work in a Hasidic meth lab," she says. It's really quite stupid and insulting as she starts cracking up and the audience too as Stiller wanders the stage as each of the nominated films is described.

-Hugh Jackman's been a boring host so far; it's like an extended presentation slot.

-Flip out of the Oscars' cheesy romantic montage or something back to NASCAR on Fox; the race is down the road from the theater in Hollywood, there's another yellow, lots of little rain delays tonight. Nice counter-programming.

-Domo Arrigato, Mr. Robot says Japanese filmmaker Kunio Kato after winning the best animated short for "La Maison En Peitits Cubes." (Of course the LATime's snarky blog, The Envelope, doesn't mention Kato's name or even the full name of the short--it only quotes a voter dumping on the film. Hollywood; where the establishment speaks for the rest of the world).

-Simon Beaufoy of "Slumdog Millionaire" wins Best Adapted Screenplay; hopefully this is a good sign for the film. Although my nightmare would be all the whites involved with the film winning and speaking, while the South Asians get shut out.

-Penelope Cruz wins for best supporting actress; she's one of my favorite actors, thanks Woody Allen in her speech for writing good roles for women.

Spinning racism as conservation

The New York Times has a startling article centering around a shuttering ice cream shop, The Great Divide, that unflinchingly presents the racist views of some residents of a rapidly-changing Queens community as some latter-day version of Jane Jacobs:

The closing of the beloved neighborhood spot strikes many residents as simply the latest sign of the death of old Bellerose. The bowling alley, another local hangout that some considered the beating heart of Bellerose, closed a few years back, to eventually be replaced by a Staples, among other stores. Several years ago, the nearby movie theater closed, and the building now houses a martial arts supply business.

There have been other changes, even more unsettling to some residents in this neighborhood, long a mostly white enclave of families of Irish, Italian and German stock. ...

The transformation has come as a shock to many of the neighborhood’s earlier settlers, some of whom say they wonder whether magazines tucked into seatbacks on flights between Mumbai and Kennedy Airport advertise homes in Bellerose.

And many residents are not surprised that the developers who plan to tear down the Frozen Cup are Indian immigrants. Some of the same developers recently opened a Quality Inn down the road in Floral Park, an establishment, Mr. Augugliaro said, that “stands out like the Taj Mahal.”

Nice start; nevermind that the shuttering of long-time neighborhood institutions is normal in all neighborhoods -- where was the Times when the bowling alley and movie theater closed. Or was that not a story because it wasn't bought by the same people who created the Taj Mahal?

And yeah, let's call it a divide and morally equate the people on either side; nevermind that one side is racist against the other. Let's just call it a he said, she said thing.

While New York is often praised as a gorgeous mosaic, ethnic tensions are hardly unknown in the city, especially in neighborhoods that undergo rapid demographic shifts. Sometimes tensions are expressed overtly; other times, they lurk under the surface, revealing themselves in conversations that can be heard in local bars and living rooms.

That is the case in Bellerose.

Yeah, racism is presented as two-sided ethnic tensions! And note the understated language -- "ethnic tensions are hardly unknown in the city". Ha! The killing of black kids by whites, the killing of Sikhs by whites, the killing of hipsanic kids by whites -- just tensions that are hardly unknown.

Harshad Patel, who lives with his family in Floral Park, immigrated to the United States in 1981. Before entering the hotel business, he worked as a restaurateur, a metal lathe operator, a water plant operator and a sewage treatment worker. He also ran an electroplating business.

He said he was perplexed by the veneration of the Frozen Cup.

“If they have so much feeling,” he said of the establishment’s devotees, “let them buy it. Let them run the Frozen Cup if they want to.”

But the business would not survive, he insisted. “Nowadays,” Mr. Patel said, “there are so many flavors on the market and so many places to go.”

To drive home his point, he made a public offer. If someone wanted to run the Frozen Cup for the next 10 years, he promised to sell the place at a $100,000 loss.

“Let me see,” he said with a grin. “Who is coming forward?”

See, Patel's views aren't the centerpiece of the article, because it's what some white residents think that really matter. So there's no response to what Patel says in the piece, the Times just quotes him and moves on.

As officers of the Queens Colony Civic Association and members of other community groups, Angela and Michael Augugliaro have been among the most vocal opponents of the plan to replace the Frozen Cup with a hotel.

But as they sat in their living room, they expressed unhappiness with what they see as other undesirable changes in the neighborhood: street vendors selling halal gyros; traffic congestion near the Indian and Pakistani grocery stores on Hillside Avenue; newly created mini-mansions, many of them occupied by extended South Asian families.

“They’re turning the neighborhood into a third-world country,” Mr. Augugliaro said. “We don’t want it over here to look like Richmond Hill or Jackson Heights,” he added, speaking of Queens neighborhoods with sizable South Asian populations.

As he spoke, Ms. Augugliaro shook her head in disapproval at some of his remarks, and he seemed to pick up on her unspoken criticism.

“I’m not a racist,” Mr. Augugliaro quickly added. In fact, he said, he was tired of the subject of race coming up so often. “What does race have to do with it?” he asked.

The couple later recalled a morning years ago when they saw an old man in an orange turban walking on the sidewalk with a curved sword slung from his waist like the one they remembered from the Ali Baba cartoons.

The man was a Sikh, and the object was a Kirpan, a sword carrying religious symbolism and worn by some adherents of the faith, though often a smaller version of the Kirpan is worn on a necklace under a shirt. The couple laughed as they recalled the scene.

“It was like a total shock,” Ms. Augugliaro said.

Yup, he's no racist.

Many of the South Asians who live in Bellerose have only good things to say about the neighborhood. On a snowy Martin Luther King Jr. Day, Francis Thomas, the Indian-born owner of India Kitchen, a restaurant on Braddock Avenue, stood at the counter and said relations between the races in Bellerose were good. “They’re tolerant,” Mr. Thomas said of the people of Bellerose.

Yes, because tolerance is the highest value we aspire to here in America; it's weird for the Times to insert this paragraph, when so much of the article shows the residents aren't tolerant, and that'd it'd be weird for any South Asians to think that.

Instead the Times takes ordinary politeness, an unwillingness on the part of South Asians to speak ill to a newspaper about their neighbors, as a 'there's nothing here to see, move along' sentiment.

Next door to the India Kitchen, however, at a pub called Fuzzy’s Bar, where a grill called Wolf Dawg serves burgers and “hot dawgs,” patrons griped about their immigrant neighbors as “Jeopardy!” played on two small television sets.

“Everybody wants to bring their country here,” said Bruce Holloway, one patron who lives in Bayside, Queens. “They don’t want to look like Americans, they don’t want to dress like Americans, and they don’t want to speak English.”

“But they do come for the benefits,” volunteered his drinking buddy, who gave his name as Franco and said he grew up in Bellerose and used to go to the Frozen Cup for strawberry ice cream with chocolate sprinkles. And of the South Asian grocery stores, he added, one of which opened a month earlier down the block and had the word “bazaar” in its name, “It’s not the kind of store an American goes into.”

Of the newcomers, a group he describes simply as “the Indians,” he said, “They change everything that’s been here.” And he wondered aloud, “Where the hell do they get the money from?”

This is one of the things that drives me crazy about the Times -- they habitually think it's okay to use white as an euphemism for American. So the article is structured so that quotes about how no 'American' would go into a store, that South Asians don't want to look like 'Americans', aren't juxtaposed by a different view, they just float by.

Imagine if the guy was saying Jews aren't Americans or no American would go into a Jewish deli; it wouldn't be buried in the midst of a paragraph, there'd be an expert talking about how this kind of anti-Semitism is engrained among certain subcultures -- there'd be some sort of overt recognition that this statement isn't normal or correct.

But for the Times, apparently it's normal and no cause for alarm that an established, declining ethnic group is racist toward neighbors who are saving their community.

Heck, maybe racism really is just the new family values!

Bush shoed out of Iraq

If you ever need to explain the impact of the Iraq war to someone in the space of a few paragraphs, you could do a lot worse than these:

Shoe-Hurling Iraqi Becomes a Folk Hero: An Iraqi journalist who hurled his shoes at President Bush and called him a dog became a huge celebrity in the Arab world and beyond on Monday, with many supporters exalting him for what they called a courageous act in the face of American arrogance about the war.

Barely 24 hours after the journalist, Muntader al-Zaidi, was tackled and arrested for his actions at a Baghdad news conference, the shoe-throwing incident was generating front-page headlines and continuing television news coverage. A thinly veiled glee could be discerned in much of the reporting, especially in the places where anti-American sentiment runs deepest. ...

As of Monday night, no apology from the station was forthcoming. Instead, the network posted an image of Mr. Zaidi, 29, in the corner of the screen for much of the day. Viewers were invited to phone in their opinions, and the vast majority said they approved of his actions.

Opponents of the continued American presence in Iraq turned Mr. Zaidi’s detention Monday into a rallying cry. Support for the detained journalist crossed religious, ethnic and class lines in Iraq — vaulting him to near folk hero status. ...

“This is unsuitable action by an Iraqi journalist,” said Kamal Wahbi, a 49-year-old engineer in the Kurdish city of Sulaimaniya, where pro-American sentiment is strong. “His action served terrorism and radical national extremism. I think he could send the same message by asking Bush embarrassing questions.”

I'll buy one

Does the NYTimes.com not have copy editors?

Obama Team Anything but Shy and Retiring: Dan Gerstein, a Democratic communications consultant, said that while Mr. Emanuel had a reputation for clashing with others, he also got things done. “He wasn’t able to round up votes for Nafta by being a bullying, hyperpartisan ideologue,” Mr. Gerstein said of Mr. Emanuel’s role at the Clinton White House, where he helped to secure passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. “This caricature of Rahm as this raging bull in a China shop is wrong.”

Looking back on Barack

You wonder what Abraham Lincoln would've made of Barack Obama and the 2008 presidential race.... Here, at least, is what I made of it:

June 18, 2006: Seed Corn

How great is Obama? I like him a lot--but you know, shouldn't every politician be like him? Inspiring, straight-forward, optimistic and connected to the people. It doesn't seem too much to ask, but I guess it is.

As for Obama in '08--sure, if the Democrats want to commit suicide. He's not ready for the job, especially in this day and age. It'd be a miracle if he was.

I'm sure Republicans are praying that a fit of insanity among Democratic voters in Iowa and New Hampshire will propel Obama to the nomination. They can then run McCain--GOP primary voters would rather him than a black man win!--and legitimately play the experience/real adult card, making Obama look foolish and hampering his chances for when he should really run, in 2012.

Besides which, many voters disgusted with Bush and looking for anyone but will draw the line at voting for black man for president. The same prejudice makes me worry that literally the only person who can keep the Democrats out of the White House in 2008 is Hillary. Gore, Kerry, heck, even bring back Jimmy Carter.

So don't do it, Barack, not yet. The Democratic party isn't so bereft it needs to eat its children, neither is it so strong it can make history.

Well, in my defense, I did recognize Obama's extraordinary qualities; and that McCain would be the GOP nominee against Obama. This was before the Democrats won back the House in 2006, it just goes to show how quickly things change in politics.

January 17, 2007: Running for history

It's interesting because four years ago at this time, Democrats were watching pretty much the same race between Howard Dean and John Kerry.

Yet Dean wound up with both the energy and the money, before Kerry outwitted him in Iowa and fed his self-destruction. Obama's a much more disciplined candidate than Dean; Clinton's got more star power than Kerry.

To the extent any argument you can make about Obama was also made about Dean--inexperience being the chief one--the fact that Dean overcame and indeed took advantage of all the rhetoric to become the overwhelming Democratic front-runner at one point bodes well for Obama.

That, plus the fact that all of Obama's forthcoming screw-ups will only feed into his image as an ordinary, likeable guy. Obama's about as close to bullet-proof as any candidate has been in recent years; well, except of course for the name-thing and the race-thing.

Just one sign of his popularity is his announcement of his candidacy, via his website, became--in just one day--one of the most popular items this month on Digg.

Hillary's chief danger is she is going to seem like old news compare to Obama; that everything she does or says, no matter its merits, can be tuned out by an electorate that may have hit historically high levels of cynicism when it comes to attitudes toward politicians.

Her top assets are she has a ton of money, and knows everybody there is to know. And a nearly-fanatically loyal and top-notch staff that's been helping her lay the groundwork for this run for the past decade.

Throw in the mantle of history both carry, and it's shaping up to be one heck of a race. With their contrasting styles, it may even turn out to be the most riveting thing on television this fall.

I don't see how this can be good for Republicans in any way--the country's gonna be riveted by all Democrats, all the time, for the next year-and-a-half. Whomever winds up being the nominee is going to have had a lot more free media on which to spread their message than anyone on the Republican side.

Then again, given the GOP's message is essentially whatever Bush says it is at this point, maybe it's not such a bad idea for them to lay low until they can sort things out.

Well, this turned out to be the 2008 primary race in a nutshell, laid out at the outset of 2007. Not bad!

March 24, 2007: From Illinois to Hawai'i

There's a fascinating Times look at Barack Obama's time growing up in Hawai'i, A Search for Self in Obama’s Hawaii Childhood, that gives you a glimpse into why he's so at ease with America circa 2007, in contrast with all the white male Americas running around as if it's 1957.

Unlike those carefully-constructed empty suits, Obama is an absolutely natural politician, totally relaxed in front of people and able to communicate his ideas and principles in a straightforward, understandable style. He has the gift of distilling the complex down to its essentials without patronizing his audience or himself.

Yet for all his ease with his fellow Americans, he's a uniquely complicated person--the more I find out, the more amazed I am at all the interesting little items in his background. His path has been harder and more meandering than I expected, based on his golden boy public image that's quickly taken on aspects of the mythic.

In a very specific way he reminds me of Lincoln--the optimism about America, intertwined with a dead seriousness about his personal mission; that same quick wit and easy sense of humor, overlaying both a prodigious intellect and a deeper, darker strain that comes from atypical levels of thought and personal experiences.

And, like Lincoln, shaped by the frontier, Obama, shaped by Hawai'i, knows America needs everyone.

This was a good post that, I think, gets at the core of Obama's appeal for a 21st century America.

April 2, 2007: Two shining moments

In politics, like everything else, both the things that grab the headlines and a flood of information can sometimes blind you to the telling details.

The big story Sunday was Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign announcing they had raised more than $26 million in the first three months of 2007, shattering the previous record (which was around $8 million).

Buried in the story, however, was a key line--Clinton wasn't revealing how much of that money had been raised for her primary fight, and how much for the general election.

It's obviously an important distinction; mixing the two numbers is like telling someone your salary's $1 million... based on lumping together the next 10 years.

How about Barack Obama? He hasn't officially reported yet, but his campaign is leaking that he raised $20 million. ...

I'd say Hillary is more than worried. Remember, the candidate who raises the most early doesn't always win--just ask Howard Dean about that.

However... Hillary had all the advantages coming in, and she's not someone who's got a lot of new people to tap into at this point. She's had years to cultivate donors; has 100% name recognition; has the support of tons of operatives and party officials; represents New York, where a giant percentage of the top donors live; has a big network in California, the other fundraising hub; and has hubby Bill's magic Rolodex to draw from.

They pulled out all the stops; and it didn't work. ...

Looks like the Final Four's set for the presidential race; only question is whether Hillary and Rudy deserve their current #1 seeds.

Not bad; not too many other people at this point arguing Obama might be the actual front-runner for the Democratic nomination.


August 3, 2007: When not winning is losing

In sports there's the concept of a team being behind in the game, but actually being ahead.

Like let's say in football, you turn the ball over 4 times deep in your own territory in the first half, but the other team is only up 10-0 on the scoreboard.

Really, you should be losing like 21-0, so the halftime speech from the coach goes something like they've taken their best shot at us and this is all they can do--this game is ours to win.

You'd be surprised at how often the team that's 'down' winds up winning the game in situations like that; you've got to make the most of your chances in sports, and when you don't the other team usually does.

The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll from Iowa has Barack Obama at 27%, Hillary Clinton at 26%, and Johh Edwards at 26%.

I'm shocked. Edwards has practically lived in Iowa the last four years; the state gave him a surprisingly strong second place finish the last time out, and his entire strategy this time around is built around winning Iowa so he's devoted the bulk of his resources to the state.

Clinton's also been running for president for the past four years, has poured money and staff into Iowa, is married to someone who's enormously popular in the state, and has picked up the endorsements of most of Iowa's political heavyweights.

And yet they're both not only not up on Obama, but are actually trailing a man whose only advantage in Iowa is his ads in the Illionois Senate race leaked over the border.

I mean, if four years of concentrated work by Edwards and Clinton in a state that's 94% white can't even give them a lead over someone who's basically just shown up, my gosh, where are they gonna beat him once voters get to know him? ...

Nevertheless, this poll result from a state with voters who are paying the most attention in the nation, along with Obama's ability to outraise Hillary, along with the size of crowds he's drawing everywhere, along with the people he's managed to get to run his campaign, are all pretty telling that this game is gonna play out differently.

My first concrete prediction that Obama would beat Hillary, 5 months before the Iowa caucuses.

August 3, 2007: Why Republicans will choose a Hispanic for VP

Come next September in Minneapolis, the Republicans should nominate a Hispanic candidate for vice president.

A Hispanic nominee totally changes the dynamic of the election. It'd give the GOP a shot at capturing the fastest-growing bloc of voters, lets voters make history by voting Republican, blows up the electoral map, and allows the traditional black/Latino fault line to tear Democrats apart from within.

A Hispanic is the only person who can fulfill the VP nominee's traditional job of attack dog against the other party's presidential candidate without coming across as racist (if it's Barack Obama) or a bully (if it's Hillary Clinton).

A Hispanic gives minorities a credible reason to not vote Democratic without feeling like traitors or bigots or sexists.

A Hispanic is the only way the Republicans can dodge the growing feeling that they're yesterday's party, top-heavy with tired white males.

A Hispanic ties 15% of the population to the Republicans, via an ethnic pride/emotional/historic appeal that cannot be underestimated.

A Hispanic demolishes the electoral map--it locks up Texas for the GOP, solidifies their hold on Florida, shores up their razor-thin margins in Arizona and New Mexico, forces Democrats to put more resources into the expensive New York and Illinois media markets, and--in combination with Schwarzenegger--actually puts California into play.

A Hispanic in the second spot gives cover for the Republicans to play their favorite wedge issue, immigration, following the George Bush/Karl Rove playbook.

There are only two reasons the GOP wouldn't nominate a Hispanic: The prejudices of their own core voters, and the lack of a credible Hispanic Republican candidate (Mel Martinez is the only one in the ballpark).

I guess it's apt that the only thing preventing the Republicans from seizing control of the 2008 race could be themselves.

They should've listened to me; Obama would still have won, but the GOP would've at least made it a much better debate about the future of this country.

January 2, 2008: Coming home

I still believe what I wrote in August, that Barack Obama's going to win the Iowa Democratic caucus Thursday. And think the margin will be surprisingly large.

Especially given that Obama's supporters tend to be younger, and passionate--the anachronistic but thrilling caucuses are really about neighbors arguing with neighbors and trying to come to a consensus.

I think group dynamics will make it easier for a roomful of people to wind up taking a chance and going with hope, than playing it safe--especially with a candidate as charismatic and likeable as Obama.

That, plus the Des Moines Register's poll (the only whose track record gives it any credibilty), plus Obama's parallels with Kerry's surge last year, plus the prospect of record turnout, plus the influx of independents, plus a relatively mild weather forecast, plus Kucinich/Richardson/Biden telling or likely to tell their supporters to make Obama their 2nd choice all make me think the Senator-from-next-door will turn the Democratic race upside down.

January 5, 2008: Scoring the New Hampshire debates

I do think Obama took some hits tonight; he stumbled a bit early, and Clinton probably scored some points with her sharp remarks about words being no substitute for hard work. However, and this is a huge however--the moments I remember from the night are mainly his. He gave a pitch-perfect response to Gibson's question about whether the surge in Iraq seems to have worked, denying the premise by saying it only seems that way because the bar's been set so low by giant failure. It made all the other candidates' technocratic quibblings seem stupid. He turned Hillary's premise about pretty speeches meaning nothing around on her, saying he thought words can matter a lot when people are hungry to be led.

Obama did this a number of times during the night, parrying critiques by saying essentially expand your narrow Washington outlook and don't get bogged down arguing point by point. He's uniquely good at this, with his cadence, his smile, his demeanor, his background. It's why he's going to win New Hampshire, he inspires you even if you don't always agree with all his positions (and I happen to, in general).

Obama resonates with ordinary people because he's just like us, but more competent. One of the funniest moment of the night was when he was asked about his reaction to what the Republicans had said about him; he said well, I was watching their debate, but I have to admit I also watched a lot of the football game.

At which point Charlie Gibson asked him how the Redskins had done, Obama informed him they'd lost, Gibson expressed disgust, and everyone laughed.

I was wrong of course about New Hampshire, but right about Obama. I really liked that debate, with Charlie Gibson moderating; it was American democracy at its best.

February 2, 2008: Clinton's last stand against Obama

I think unless Hillary Clinton blows out Barack Obama in Super Tuesday's delegate race, Obama will have a clear path to the Democratic nomination.

With 22 states voting Tuesday, there are a bunch of voters who will be casting their ballots without any real exposure to the candidates; in such cases, name recognition--and plain old inertia--will help Clinton a lot.

In order of definitiveness, I think Obama will win Illinois, Alaska, Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota and Georgia for sure--the Times reports Clinton's not even advertising in any of these states.

I think Clinton will win New York (home state), New Jersey (near-home state), Arkansas (home state), and Tennessee (big lead in polls) for sure.

I think Obama will win a lot of states that are currently either tied, or leaning Clinton: Connecticut (late endorsements will help), Alabama (African Americans), Idaho (see below), Kansas (mom's home state plus governor's endorsement), and Massachusetts (Clinton's had a big lead, but I think Kennedy endorsement will be enough).

I think Clinton will win Arizona (older voters, Latinos), Missouri (it's a weird state, she's been up in all the polls), and Oklahoma (no diversity).

I have no opinion on Delaware, New Mexico, North Dakota, or Utah--haven't seen any data, not sure which way they'll go.

I'm also not sure about California, which is obviously the most important Super Tuesday contest; you could argue the winner of this primary is the front-runner the rest of the way. ...

Hillary's only hope is some sort of momentum post-Super Tuesday, adn the Latino-vote thing. On the latter, it's a weird for her camp to hang its strategy on--it's not like there's any strong reason for Latino's to support the Clintons. It's more a level of discomfort with an African-American politician, but that's something which is likely to dissipate with time and exposure.

I think the calendar and the dwindling Latino thing is what all the veteran politicians, editorial boards, and unions who have started to endorse Obama are looking at.

Politicians and journalists and union leaders are people too; so it could just be everyone's seeing the merits of Obama's message, tapping into the mix of intellect and emotion that the giant crowds at all his events feel.

But these professional operatives didn't get where they are just by riding emotion. They're taking a cold, hard look at the remaining states, and realizing that if Clinton doesn't knock him out Tuesday, the rest of the race plays to Obama's strengths.

Who knows--maybe Obama will even win a majority of delegates on Tuesday, even without the giants of NY/NJ/CA. In which case it'll definitely be curtains for Clinton.

This was a good post; I predicted almost all of the states correctly, and said Obama was going to win this thing if Clinton didn't wipe him out on Super Tuesday, which is exactly what happened. Nearly all pundits and analysts didn't come to this conclusion until well into March.

February 19, 2008: Obama strides past Wisconsin win

Tonight's the night Barack Obama started acting like the Democratic nominee for president.

It's customary for candidates to coordinate their speech times, so they don't step on each other. Tonight, Obama started speaking a few minutes into Hillary Clinton's speech.

He didn't care--and, on cue, FOX News and MSNBC and CNN cut her off--you could actually hear someone on FOX yelling CUT TO HIM NOW. ...

Obama is incredibly strategic; he's building these huge volunteer organizations in each state as it comes up, spending a ton of money on grassroots organizing--but not just so he can win the caucuses and primaries. He's doing it so he has a network he can tap into for the general election; and beyond. He wants to build up the Democratic party, but also build up support so after he's elected he can get lawmakers to sign on to his likely fundamental policy shifts. His change is so not just rhetoric; it's concrete and structural and is going to be a mighty force for at least the next decade.

I bolded it in the original; it turned out to be Obama's hallmark outof this election. The thing people forget about Obama is he's ruthless--he really wants to win, not at all costs but he's not in it to look good. The talking over Clinton's speech was an early sign of that.

March 30, 2008: Don't put Barack in a box

Members of the artistic set--whether actors or sculptors or musicians or authors--like pretending they know more about politics than politicians. Because of course there's no better way to understand politics than spending your working hours in a studio.

Just as most non-artists have no idea how hard it is to create good art, so most non-politicians have no idea how complicated politics is.

Journalists, though, should know better. Which is why Holland Cotter's an idiot for suggesting that Barack Obama is lagging behind behind artists when it comes to talking about race.

His article sounds good, but let's be serious--Obama has done more to bring topics of race into the national discussion, and has better ideas about addressing problems related to race, than any artist you might catch in a gallery near you.

To play it any other way is just being silly. ...

Cotter gets it exactly backwards--Obama has never said we're over race in this country. To think that an intelligent black man could believe that is every white person's dream, their 'I told you so' silver bullet.

What Obama's been trying to do is get people to look beyond his race when judging his fitness to be president, which, as far as we know, is not a job that requires scruity of someone's race. To get to a point where every discussion of him doesn't mention his race.

It's too bad that Cotter seems to only value and assess the works of these black artists in terms of their contribution or lack thereof to the discussion of race in this country.

Lucky for us, Obama's candidacy is about so much more.

Yup--he wasn't running to be the first black president, he was running to be president; but of course that doesn't mean he thinks racism isn't a problem anymore. If anything, he probably thinks racism is such a big problem, the only way he could win was to not run as black. And this was before Obama's Philadelphia speech on race.

April 17, 2008: ABC was doing its job--debate will help Obama, not Clinton

Everyone who's outraged over tonight's debate on ABC--in particular the first 50-odd minutes when Barack Obama was getting hammered with questions from Charlie Gibson, George Stephanopoulos and Hillary Clinton--are missing the big picture: Tonight's debate treated Obama as the Democratic nominee.

Think about it--if this man is advancing to the final round in the race to be president of the United States, wouldn't you want to throw everything at him, to see how he responds?

Clinton has no path to victory, so she had no choice but to spend the night talking about him. Imagine if it were John McCain and Mike Huckabee up there--who'd you rather be, McCain getting raked over the coals because he matters, or Huckabee getting ignored because he doesn't?

So you give the car you're planning to buy one last, good, going-over; kick the tires, test out all the features. That's what the voters want, and that's why ABC spent most of the debate on Obama.

As long as the car starts--and Barack Obama did more than start, he roared at times tonight--it doesn't matter if you find some flaws.

This is the car you're going home with; the other car just happens to be sitting next to it on the lot, why would you waste time on it?

This is also why I thought the Republicans were idiots for making the general election campaign all about Obama. He's a Ferrari; why would you want to keep shining a spotlight on it?!

June 9, 2008: As long as he stays overseas

Roger Cohen's got an Op-Ed in the Times about how much the French love Barack Obama.

Cohen doesn't mention the profound problem, of course, of a country supposedly in love with a black American that's only got one black Frenchman in parliament.

Lost in the wave of Euro-adulation for Obama is it doesn't seem like the old country understands his repeated line, 'only in America'.

September 1, 2008: Obama: I was born to a teen mom, too

Anyone still doubting that Barack Obama is a different type of politician should see his answer to a question about Sarah Palin's 17-year-old daughter being pregnant, via Atlantic's Marc Ambinder:

Jake Tapper: Governor Palin and her husband issued a statement today saying that their 17 year old daughter Bristol who is unmarried is 5 months pregnant. Do you have a comment?

BO: I have heard some of the news on this and so let me be as clear as possible. I have said before and I will repeat again, I think people's families are off limits, and people's children are especially off limits. This shouldn't be part of our politics, it has no relevance to governor Palin's performance as a governor or her potential performance as a vice president. And so I would strongly urge people to back off these kinds of stories. You know my mother had me when she was 18. And how family deals with issues and teenage children that shouldn't be the topic of our politics and I hope that anybody who is supporting me understands that is off limits.
I actually disagree with Obama, because Palin's made so much of her strong Christian values and is so strongly against teaching safe sex.

But how many politicans would willingly reach out to the teenage daughter in this case, saying in effect hey, my mom was there too--and look at how things turned out.

One of many telling moments that Obama is different. I'm curious whether Palin, freed from her VP role, will remember things like this.

October 29, 2008: Obama seals the deal

It's Barack Obama's 30-minute closing ad--and it starts with spectacular scenes of fields of wheat. Then Obama speaking directly on tape from a very presidential-looking office. Next it's him with voters, then a live cut-in from a speech in Florida. ...

Obama on the stump, I am not a perfect man, but will always be honest, listen to you when we disagree, open the doors of government.

Wow, live from Florida, in a huge basketball arena, big crowd. He's talking directly to the camera. In 6 days, we can choose... rebuild economy, hope over fear, unity over division, promise of change over the status quo, come together as one nation. Lists people across the country he wants to help. 2 minutes left; in this last week, if you'll knock on some doors, make some calls, stand with me, we will win this eletion, and together we will change this country and change this world. Crowd goes nuts, and as always the timing is perfect, he's smiling.

Website, phone number; Joe Biden joins him up on stage, they're holding hands; wow.

Yeah, that was amazingly powerful. I've been saying landslide all along--dimensions might be even bigger than thought.

Wow, and in a huge mistake, McCain runs a negative ad a few minutes after Obama on FOX and right before the World Series resumes! It just feels so wrong....

A lot of this campaign did come down to touch--Obama always had it, McCain almost never. It's an important quality for a president to have, I think; it's what keeps them in sync with the American people, so they can decide whether to lead or follow.

November 4, 2008: Why Obama will win in a landslide

Well, the headline really says it all on that post. It's amazing how long this great campaign has gone on for; I already miss checking poll results and reading the latest interesting/blind thoughts from pundits.

I can guarantee, though, that the Obama administration will be even better than the Obama campaign. It should be a great four years, with another four after that.

Why Obama will win in a landslide

1) Because Barack Obama and his campaign have outworked John McCain, spending money and energy building a turnout machine that's supercharged by today's great weather.

2) Because people are more likely to wait in long lines to vote for a winner.

3) Because in the four 'battlegrounds' that matter: the last couple of elections Pennsylvania also looked like it was tightening only to go big for Democrats; in Virginia Obama not only overperformed the polls on primary day, but he also drew nearly 100,000 to a rally yesterday; Obama has a half-million early voting cushion and a great ground game in Florida; and Ohio owes Democrats and the country not to make the same mistake again, and knows it.

4) Because Dick Cheney's endorsement reminded everyone how John McCain's still got the scarlet R next to his name.

5) Because Obama's been able to answer every Republican attack ad with 3 ads.

6) Because undecideds waiting for the other shoe to drop on Obama are now free to vote their gut, and because even racists need to pay the mortgage, fill up the car and go to the doctor.

7) Because McCain and Palin's last-minute lurching about and indiscriminate attacks underscores the erratic nature of that ticket.

8) Because like Lincoln Obama's truly a once-in-a-lifetime candidate and intellect, and fits the historical times perfectly.

9) Because the death of his grandmother reminds Americans that like this country he's neither black nor white.

10) Because in the privacy of their voting booth, Americans will choose quiet hope over strident fear.

Obama photos from an amazing series by Callie Shell

Obama seals the deal

It's Barack Obama's 30-minute closing ad--and it starts with spectacular scenes of fields of wheat. Then Obama speaking directly on tape from a very presidential-looking office. Next it's him with voters, then a live cut-in from a speech in Florida.

It's very slickly-produced; shot beautifully, maybe too much so? First, Missouri, typical white mother talking about her family, Obama narrating, then going to clip from his acceptence speech. This is a new format, so hard to feel how well he's doing.

Back to Barack in the office, talking about the Wall Street crash. Let's see if he even mentions John McCain tonight--I wouldn't be surprised if not. Lists his plan, point by point.

Clip of him talking to voters, all old this time. He's listening and then reassuring an older guy about his pension fears, the guy says thank you a few times. Next, governor of Ohio Ted Stricklin speaks--hmmm, this is interesting, a lot of different things woven in, complete with a teaser, live Obama event coming up.

Now Kathleen Sebelius, then Deval Patrick from Massachusetts. Now, black family in Ohio, older, own home; this one's focused on health care. Husband had to go back to work at age 72. Wow.

Back to Obama in the office. Lots of hand gestures tonight. Talking about energy independence--odd, no transition from health care to this. He's not as good when he sits down, odd body language. His points flash on the screen as he lays out his plan.

Hmm, pivot to Iraq, clip from the debates about the cost of staying there. Then from the campaign trail. Wow, Google CEO talks; then Virginia Gov. Tim Kaine. Smart, it's not just him. The best parts are him talking to voters.

Now, big family--Hispanic--around the dinner table, New Mexico; she's a teacher, and then another job afterwards, plus teacher training classes. Wow, these segments are pretty good, she's grocery shopping. All these people are helping voters feel like Obama knows them.

This is definitely a commercial; clip of Obama talking about education, with footage of kids in school, impossibly photogenic.

Now pivot to his biography, photos and Obama talking about his father briefly, then his mother. Another clip from his acceptence speech, more on education. Better clip of him in his office now, cut at the shoulder-level so no odd gestures. Back to health care, odd transition here.

More biography, photos of him, talking about his mom's death from cancer. Clip from his announcement that he's running; then more campaign speaking, about his mom's last months reading insurance forms, never got to see her grandchildren, that breaks my heart.

Michelle, talking about him and his daughters, Malia and him read through all the Harry Potter books. Amazing b-roll of the next first family, clip from his acceptence speech, we all have to look out for each other. Wow, clip from his 2004 convention speech, looking impossibly young. Sen. Dick Durbin talking under the b-roll and photos.

Gov. Claire Macaskill talks about him taking on the establishment; then Joe Biden on his bipartisanship. Obama talks about Biden from a clip during the debates, some home videos and photos of Joe. We're 20 minutes in, so far this is very interesting.

Another white family--hey, where are the Asian Americans?!--from Kentucky, of all places! Hardly a swing state--at the moment. Focus on working class families. Struggling to make ends meet... you feel so bad for all these hard-working people. Wow, the guy's making phone calls with a diverse group for Obama.

Obama speech clip, talking about his grandparents over b-roll. This is our moment. As commander-in-chief, I will never hesitate to defend our country. Iran, Russia, Afghanistan. Clip of him with a woman on the rope line in Iowa, whose son had been shipped out to Iraq. Wow, ex-brigadier general, John Adams, talking about how Obama will be a great president.

Okay, he's hit it out of the park again. No mention of McCain, all positive, but specific, with real people and their stories. Bill Richardson--"this guy is special, he can bring people together, he's a good, decent man, can heal this country, very unusual, good, positive sides of this man that we need at this juncture in our history."

Obama on the stump, I am not a perfect man, but will always be honest, listen to you when we disagree, open the doors of government.

Wow, live from Florida, in a huge basketball arena, big crowd. He's talking directly to the camera. In 6 days, we can choose... rebuild economy, hope over fear, unity over division, promise of change over the status quo, come together as one nation. Lists people across the country he wants to help. 2 minutes left; in this last week, if you'll knock on some doors, make some calls, stand with me, we will win this eletion, and together we will change this country and change this world. Crowd goes nuts, and as always the timing is perfect, he's smiling.

Website, phone number; Joe Biden joins him up on stage, they're holding hands; wow.

Yeah, that was amazingly powerful. I've been saying landslide all along--dimensions might be even bigger than thought.

Wow, and in a huge mistake, McCain runs a negative ad a few minutes after Obama on FOX and right before the World Series resumes! It just feels so wrong....

Rain and ice for Obama

Photo of the campaign so far from Doug Mills of The New York Times, showing Barack Obama at a rainy rally Saturday at the University of Mary Washington in Fredericksburg, Virginia.

The other photo, from the AP, is from a rally today in Hockeytown.

Obama-McCain debate, after all

I can't remember a more highly-anticipated debate; like everything else this year, it just feels bigger, like a society-wide event (the way politics always should be). McCain's theatrics the last few days of course only pumps up the interest--if this was deliberate, he better destroy Obama, cause any kind of tie is going to go to the one who didn't try to pull out.

The non-traditional format--9 segments of 9 minutes each, with opening questions on each topic and then a free-form where the candidates can really debate each other--means there could be fireworks. I'd say the potential for a flash of temper or big gaffe is the highest in years; McCain doesn't like playing it safe in any case, and with his recent big polling deficit I think he's gonna roll the dice, again.

Not that Palin or the 'suspend campaign' gambit worked.

ABC's crew looks positively giddy; more Americans could be watching tonight than for any other scheduled event in U.S. history. 22 debates for Obama, 15 for McCain (none of which had him matched up against 1 other candidate).

Jim Lehrer gets us going; he's the perfect moderator, steady and sober. Man, I have butterflies; this is really quite exciting. Lehrer stands to welcome the candidates, the audience does too. Holy height differential, Batman.

Lehrer starts quoting Eisenhower; economic strength the foundation of military strength. Asks where do you stand on the financial recovery plan. Obama first, per coin flip. Looks at the camera; has 2 minutes here, starts out a bit like a stump speech, then gets more relaxed. Lays out his principles--oversight, taxpayers should get something back, nothing to CEO salaries, 4 is helping homeowners. Also have to recognize this is the verdict on 8 years of failed policies from Bush and McCain. Trickle down hasn't worked--middle class should be the measure.

McCain, wearing a horribly striped tie (first rule of TV: wear nothing stripey, it creates signal noise); mentions Senator Kennedy in the hospital. Been not feeling too great about a lot of things lately, but feeling better tonight. Speaks more deliberately than Obama, to Lehrer not the camera. Makes joke about having been around for a while, which falls flat. Man, he seems sedate; Obama was punchy, energetic; he totally seems feeble--has a cold or something.

Very morbid-seeming; no eye contact with the camera. So weird. Lehrer wants to go back to the question. Obama takes over, how did we get here--says he warned 2 years we were potentially going to have a problem, last year told the Secretary of the Treasury a problem was brewing. Why didn't we set up a 21st century regulatory framework.

McCain says he hopes he'll vote for the plan; I also warned about Mae/Mac, all that--a lot of us saw this train wreck coming. Reference to Eisenhower, wrote 2 letters before D-Day, congrats and resignation. We've lost accountability. Wants SEC head to resign.

Obama says we need more responsibility--but not just when there's a crisis. Years ideology has been what's good for Wall Street, not Main Street; 10 days ago John said the fundamentals of the economy are strong; Lehrer tells him to say it directly to McCain, trying to get them to engage a little. McCain goes off on how great the American worker is.

Lehrer is getting a bit energized; asks McCain the differences between him and Obama. He says spending is out of control, even under Republicans. Goes after earmarking and corruption.

Man, he looks grim; holds up a pen, says he's gonna veto spending bills. Hits Obama for earmarks. Obama says that's why he suspended all requests for his home state. Obama hits back, McCain wants $300 billion in tax cuts for wealthy corporations. Tax cut for 95% of working families.

McCain ignores Obama, goes back to earmarks again. Obama interrupts him, he's not raising taxes. Very forceful. Closes loopholes, pays for priorities as he goes. Let's go back to the point; $18 billion is important, but that's not how we're going to get the middle class back on track, your tax policy is aimed at people who are doing well, that's just the last 8 years.

Lehrer asks McCain to respond. He says he wants to cut the business tax to get jobs here. Goes on for a while; Obama says if you make less than $250,000 a year, you won't get an increase. The business tax problem is real, but there are so many loopholes that businesses pay one of the lowest tax rates in the world. Hits his health credit idea--he intends to tax health benefits, for the first time in history. An example of the notion that the market can always solve everything.

McCain is hammering on his fight against spending. Obama interrupts McCain, says it's not true, goes after him on oil companies. Obama's demeanor is pretty good, forceful and direct and calm.

3rd question, Lehrer asks what will you have to give up because of the outlays for the rescue plan. Obama says we can't do everything, but we have to have energy independence. Have to reform health care system. Have to compete in education. Have to rebuild our infrastructure.

McCain says we have to cut spending. Obama has the most liberal voting record. Eliminate ethanol subsidies. Cut cost plus contracts in defense spending. This is McCain's strong suit, he's coming across as consistent. Saved $6.8 billion by fighting Boeing contract.

Obama says John's right that we have to make some cuts, private insurers through Medicare shouldn't be getting subsidies. Mentions he set up Google for government, so taxpayers can see spending projects.

Lehrer asks again, how will this crisis affect your policies? McCain says spending freeze on everything; Obama says you're using a hatchett when you need a scalpel. $10 billion a month in Iraq--let's save some money there.

McCain says we're sending lots of money overseas in foreign aid; need offshore drilling and nuclear power. 45 new nuclear power plants; linked to climate change, along with Senator Clinton have done lots of work. Lehrer goes back to is the bailout going to affect your policies; Obama says yes, tough decisions ahead--but you've got to know what your priorities are.

McCain says don't hand the health care system over to the federal government. Let families make the decisions. They're letting each other speak; if I were Obama I'd slice into this.

Obama says you said you agree with Bush 90% of the time--you voted for almost all of his budgets, to stand here after 8 years and say you're going to lead, is hard to swallow. McCain says it's well-known I'm not Miss Congeniality.

Lehrer shifts to lessons of Iraq. McCain says you can't lose a conflict. We're winning in Iraq, this strategy has succeeded. Wow, it's like he's speaking off the top of his head here as he ticks off the possible impact if we had not 'won.'

Obama says first question is should we have gone to war to begin with. We've spent nearly a trillion in Iraq, lost more than 4,000 lives, and al-Qaida is stronger than any time since 2001. Looks into the camera, we have to use our military wisely, and we didn't in Iraq.

McCain says next president will have to decide how we'll leave. Obama recently said it exceeded our expectations. Obama says violence has been reduced; but that was a tactic to contain the damage of four years of mismanage. They war didn't start in 2007. McCain's trying to cut in, Obama is citing what he was on wrong on, ticks them off. Obama reframes it as judgment.

McCain says Obama doesn't understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy. Talks about speaking to troops in Iraq, says they said let us win, we don't want our kids coming back here. Obama refuses to acknowledge we are winning in Iraq. McCain says Obama voted to cut off votes for the troops.

Obama clarifies the vote was on whether there should be a timetable or not. Says McCain said Afghanistan not a threat, in rush to go to Iraq. Not enough troops in Afghanistan.

The best Obama can hope for is to talk about Afghanistan; and that's where Lehrer moves it. Says again, it was a strategic mistake to go to Iraq not Afghanistan. Hits Pakistan too.

McCain says he won't repeat the mistake that he regrets, abandoning the people after we helped them drive Russians out. That's a good point. Says he's not prepared to cut off aid to Pakistan, so I'm not prepared to threaten Pakistan, or strike them--you don't say that out loud. New strategy in Afghanistan is a surge, just like in Iraq.

McCain's really improved as the debate has gone on, his somberness works here where it didn't on the economy. His body language and tone conveys credibility. Obama says he didn't talk about attacking Pakistan--he says we'll attack al-Qaida with or without Pakistan. Obama says you have to be prudent about what you say--coming from you and your crazy remarks on North Korea and Iran, that's not credible.

Hmm, interesting, Obama now pivots, we shouldn't have propped up a dictator in Pakistan like you supported. McCain says he doesn't think Obama understands the situation in Pakistan when Musharraf came to power.

McCain says I voted against sending Marines to Lebanon. Gulf War, I supported. Bosnia, supported going in too. Odd, these are contradictory points--what's he saying, he supports intervention, or not? Getting a bit meandering. I have a record of being involved in these high level decision-making, about sending our troops into harm's way.

Talks about wearing bracelet of soldier killed in combat, his stock story. McCain says he knows what it's like when an army is defeated. Lehrer cuts him off, he keeps going on. Obama jumps in. I have a bracelet too--make sure another mother's not going through what I'm going through. The question is for the next president are we making good judgments precisely because sending our military into battle is such a big deal--the original point is we took our eye off Afghanistan.

Nobody's talking about defeat in Iraq, but we are having big problems in Afghanistan because of that decision--it's not true you've been concerned about Afghanistan, you said we could muddle through.

Wow, Obama is taking him to the woodshed on this. McCain's remark is he's never gone to Afghanistan. I've been there, I know what our needs are.

New question to McCain, what about the threat from Iran. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, it's a game-changer, so we can't let Iran go there. Wants to form a league of democracies; Russians are preventing action in the UN. Impose painful sanctions on Iran--they have a lousy government, so bad economy despite oil revenues.

The tone of this section has been different; words really matter here. McCain links Iran to Iraq insurgency; hits Obama on revolutionary guard terror amendment. Obama says let's correct something, the guard is a terrorism organization, what McCain's talking about is broadening the mandate in Iraq to include Iran. That war has helped Iran. Policy over the last 8 years has not worked.

Obama actually uses the word gamechanger; says McCain is right, we can't tolerate a nuclear Iran. Tougher sanctions--but we can't do that without the Russians and the Chinese, they're not democracies but trade with Iran. Major difference, we need to talk to them--by not talking to people we're punishing them is a failed strategy.

McCain says Obama would talk to everyone without precondition, has trouble with Ahmadinejad's name, says we shouldn't just talk to him. McCain says Reagan wouldn't talk until the Russians reformed, I'll sit with anyone but there has to be preconditions.

Obama says Ahmadinejad's not the most powerful person in Iran, so we may not talk to him; I reserve the right to talk to anyone. One of his advisers, Kissinger, said we should meet with Iran without preconditions. It doesn't mean you invite them over for tea. Of course we have to do preparations; it may not work. Raises North Korea as what happens when you don't engage a country; when Bush reversed course, we made some progress at least. Obama says McCain wouldn't even meet with Spain's prime minister. Wow, he really went after him.

McCain says what Obama doesn't understand is you legitimize comments when you sit down across the table from someone. McCain says he's known Kissinger for 35 years, Obama's wrong on this.

Next question, Russia to Obama. He's held his own so far, it's all back and forth; as long as he's on equal footing he's won. Goes through his talking points on Russia. We can't return to a Cold War posture on Russia, we have a lot in common, brings up his loose nukes actions. His answer is okay, you'd have thought it'd be better.

McCain says Obama again doesn't understand what happened with Russia vs. Georgia. I hope Obama hits him on this trope. McCain says no Cold War, but Putin's eyes are all K-G-B. Odd lines from him every so often. Keeps saying he's been to all these places. Watch Ukraine, McCain lectures, this whole thing has a long to do there.

Obama says actually we mostly agree here, but I immediately said it was illegal for Russia to go into Georgia. We have to have foresight and anticipate some of these problems, in April I said Russian peacekeepers shouldn't have been in Georgia. Obama's very good at controlling time, says in advance 2 points, which them means McCain listens to both. 2nd issue here is energy policy.

We can't drill our way out of the problem. So much of this is about demeanor and credibility, Obama oozes confidence. Hits McCain on his energy record. McCain hits Obama on nuclear, then says drilling is a bridge, at least temporarily. Obama's gonna jump in here, McCain keeps talking about Nunn-Lugar on nuclear waste. Obama hits McCain, they're talking over each other.

Last question: liklihood of another 9/11 attack on the U.S. McCain says we're safer now, but a long way from safe. I've worked across the aisle on first responder. Obama's gonna hit him on that; McCain says we'll never torture again. We're safer today than we were on 9/11, but still have a way to go. Ha, says Homeland Security employees are doing a great job.

Obama says safer in some ways. Transit, ports, chemical sites, biggest threat is nuclear proliferation. Doesn't make sense to spend billions on missile defense, but not enough attention to suitcase nukes. We also need to focus on al-Qaida, Iraq focus isn't enough. One last point: the way we are perceived in the world is going to make a difference in cooperation and rooting out terrorists. I'm going to restore our standing in the world, we shouldn't be less respected; gives McCain credit on the torture issue. McCain says Obama doesn't get that if we fail in Iraq, it encourages al Qaida, they'd have a base there.

Obama says Bush and McCain have just been focused on Iraq. In the meantime, al-Qaida is stronger. Challenges from China. Then pivots, ties our deteriorating economy to national security, spends the last part of his time talking about domestic policies. Nobody's talking about losing this war, next president has to look at the big picture.

McCain says I've been involved in everything for 20 years. I don't think Obama has the knowledge or experience, has made the wrong choices; have seen this stubborness before in this administration, refuses to say he was wrong about the surge, we need more flexibility in a president.

Wow, that's kind of a crazy point. Goes on to talk about how he'll take care of the veterans, I love them, they know that I'll take care of them. Reform, prosperity and peace; I don't need any on-the-job training.

Obama says let me make a closing point--will be hard to follow up that soundbite-friendly compilation from McCain. My dad came to Kenya, that's where I got my name; in the 60s he wanted to come here. Our standing in the world isn't what it used to be; we need to send a message to the world.

I don't think his closing is good, it sounds too liberal and wooly-minded. McCain finishes with when he came back from prison, he worked on POW-MIA issues, I know how to heal the wounds of war, I know how to deal with adversaries, and our friends.

And that's it; Obama says good job to McCain, caught on microphone. Michelle comes up on stage, then Cindy. Whoah, wives shake hands.

George Stephanopolous says both candidates played on each others' turf; McCain on economy, Obama on foreign affairs did well. Charlie Gibson said Obama strong on judgment, McCain hammered Obama on experience. Diane Sawyer says Obama campaign wanted to show fight and passion, and he did.

On NBC, they also say both did well, expressing themselves. Tom Brokaw says McCain really went after Obama, we're all looking at the same polls; surprised Obama didn't work harder at pinning McCain to Bush.

CBS has voters and their dials; during Iraq war talk, Obama scores with his list of things McCain was wrong about on the war. Few think McCain won, more think Obama won.

I think McCain did well tonight; he really owned the last few minutes, those soundbite-ready comments are going to be what a lot of people hear the next few days.

Throughout, he was clearly comfortable and familiar with all of these issues, and although I disagree with his philosphy, he at least has a well-thought out world view to apply consistently to foreign policy. McCain has also done well to avoid being tagged as Bush III, totally seemed his own man tonight except during the economic section.

Obama also did well, didn't get hammered on surge, and simply went toe-to-toe with McCain. His demeanor and tone were presidential. I don't think he 'won', but he didn't lose either, which given the polls and what people want him in office for, is a win.

Don't think the polls move much out of this; people will pretty much hear what they want to. McCain's lost one of his last best chances to move the numbers; he's going to have to pull another maverick moment.