Watching Super Tuesday

Scoreboard at this point, as I call it a night on Super Tuesday/Wednesday:

-13 states, Sen. Barack Obama
- 8 states, Sen. Hillary Clinton

I think given that the Democrats are going to win New York and California in a general election, it's pretty significant that Obama's won all the Midwest states over Hillary tonight, the states that are going to be battlegrounds.

The late victory in Missouri is especially imporant, given how far back he was just a week ago and how much of a bellweather state Missouri has been in presidential elections.

Hillary missed her last best chance to stop the Obama tide. Obama may still come out of the night with more delegates than Clinton, which would make it a clear win for him.

Especially given it's nothing but downhill for Clinton from here on out, given the states left and Obama's fundraising and organizational advantage.

Actual results, vs. my predictions--I only missed on two states, Massachusetts and Missouri, both of which I

In order of definitiveness, I think Obama will win:
Yes-Illinois
Yes-Alaska
Yes-Colorado
Yes-Kansas
Yes-Minnesota
Yes-Georgia for sure

I think Obama will win a lot of states that are currently either tied, or leaning Clinton:
Yes-Connecticut (late endorsements will help)
Yes-Alabama (African Americans)
Yes-Idaho (see below)
No-Massachusetts (Clinton's had a big lead, but I think Kennedy endorsement will be enough).

I have no opinion on
Obama-Delaware
-New Mexico
Obama-North Dakota
Obama-Utah--haven't seen any data, not sure which way they'll go.


I think Clinton will win:
Yes-New York (home state)
Yes-New Jersey (near-home state)
Yes-Arkansas (home state),
Yes-Tennessee (big lead in polls) for sure.


I think Clinton will win
Yes-Arizona (older voters, Latinos)
Obama-Missouri (it's a weird state, she's been up in all the polls)
Yes-Oklahoma (no diversity).

I'm also not sure about
Clinton-California, which is obviously the most important Super Tuesday contest; you could argue the winner of this primary is the front-runner the rest of the way.